Hospice Enrollment, Future Hospitalization, and Future Costs Among Racially and Ethnically Diverse Patients Who Received Palliative Care Consultation.

BACKGROUND: Palliative care consultation to discuss goals-of-care ("PCC") may mitigate end-of-life care disparities. OBJECTIVE: To compare hospitalization and cost outcomes by race and ethnicity among PCC patients; identify predictors of hospice discharge and post-discharge hospitalization utilization and costs. METHODS: This secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort study assessed hospice discharge, do-not-resuscitate status, 30-day readmissions, days hospitalized, ICU care, any hospitalization cost, and total costs for hospitalization with PCC and hospitalization(s) post-discharge among 1,306 Black/African American, Latinx, White, and Other race PCC patients at a United States academic hospital. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, hospice enrollment was less likely with Medicaid (AOR = 0.59, P = 0.02). Thirty-day readmission was less likely among age 75+ (AOR = 0.43, P = 0.02); more likely with Medicaid (AOR = 2.02, P = 0.004), 30-day prior admission (AOR = 2.42, P < 0.0001), and Black/African American race (AOR = 1.57, P = 0.02). Future days hospitalized was greater with Medicaid (Coefficient = 4.49, P = 0.001), 30-day prior admission (Coefficient = 2.08, P = 0.02), and Black/African American race (Coefficient = 2.16, P = 0.01). Any future hospitalization cost was less likely among patients ages 65-74 and 75+ (AOR = 0.54, P = 0.02; AOR = 0.53, P = 0.02); more likely with Medicaid (AOR = 1.67, P = 0.01), 30-day prior admission (AOR = 1.81, P = 0.0001), and Black/African American race (AOR = 1.40, P = 0.02). Total future hospitalization costs were lower for females (Coefficient = -3616.64, P = 0.03); greater with Medicaid (Coefficient = 7388.43, P = 0.01), 30-day prior admission (Coefficient = 3868.07, P = 0.04), and Black/African American race (Coefficient = 3856.90, P = 0.04). Do-not-resuscitate documentation (48%) differed by race. CONCLUSIONS: Among PCC patients, Black/African American race and social determinants of health were risk factors for future hospitalization utilization and costs. Medicaid use predicted hospice discharge. Social support interventions are needed to reduce future hospitalization disparities.

A Simulated Prospective Evaluation of a Deep Learning Model for Real-Time Prediction of Clinical Deterioration Among Ward Patients.

OBJECTIVES: The National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment can predict clinical deterioration. These scores exhibit only moderate performance and are often evaluated using aggregated measures over time. A simulated prospective validation strategy that assesses multiple predictions per patient-day would provide the best pragmatic evaluation. We developed a deep recurrent neural network deterioration model and conducted a simulated prospective evaluation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Four hospitals in Pennsylvania. PATIENTS: Inpatient adults discharged between July 1, 2017, and June 30, 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We trained a deep recurrent neural network and logistic regression model using data from electronic health records to predict hourly the 24-hour composite outcome of transfer to ICU or death. We analyzed 146,446 hospitalizations with 16.75 million patient-hours. The hourly event rate was 1.6% (12,842 transfers or deaths, corresponding to 260,295 patient-hours within the predictive horizon). On a hold-out dataset, the deep recurrent neural network achieved an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.042 (95% CI, 0.04-0.043), comparable with logistic regression model (0.043; 95% CI 0.041 to 0.045), and outperformed National Early Warning Score (0.034; 95% CI, 0.032-0.035), Modified Early Warning Score (0.028; 95% CI, 0.027- 0.03), and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (0.021; 95% CI, 0.021-0.022). For a fixed sensitivity of 50%, the deep recurrent neural network achieved a positive predictive value of 3.4% (95% CI, 3.4-3.5) and outperformed logistic regression model (3.1%; 95% CI 3.1-3.2), National Early Warning Score (2.0%; 95% CI, 2.0-2.0), Modified Early Warning Score (1.5%; 95% CI, 1.5-1.5), and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (1.5%; 95% CI, 1.5-1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used early warning scores for clinical decompensation, along with a logistic regression model and a deep recurrent neural network model, show very poor performance characteristics when assessed using a simulated prospective validation. None of these models may be suitable for real-time deployment.

Patient Risk Factor Profiles Associated With the Timing of Goals-of-Care Consultation Before Death: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early palliative care consultation ("PCC") to discuss goals-of-care benefits seriously ill patients. Risk factor profiles associated with the timing of conversations in hospitals, where late conversations most likely occur, are needed. OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factor patient profiles associated with PCC timing before death. METHODS: Secondary analysis of an observational study was conducted at an urban, academic medical center. Patients aged 18 years and older admitted to the medical center, who had PCC, and died July 1, 2014 to October 31, 2016, were included. Patients admitted for childbirth or rehabilitationand patients whose date of death was unknown were excluded. Classification and Regression Tree modeling was employed using demographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: Of 1141 patients, 54% had PCC "close to death" (0-14 days before death); 26% had PCC 15 to 60 days before death; 21% had PCC >60 days before death (median 13 days before death). Variables associated with receiving PCC close to death included being Hispanic or "Other" race/ethnicity intensive care patients with extreme illness severity (85%), with age <46 or >75 increasing this probability (98%). Intensive care patients with extreme illness severity were also likely to receive PCC close to death (64%) as were 50% of intensive care patients with less than extreme illness severity. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of patients received PCC close to death. A complex set of variable interactions were associated with PCC timing. A systematic process for engaging patients with PCC earlier in the care continuum, and in intensive care regardless of illness severity, is needed.

Evaluating delirium outcomes among older adults in the surgical intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is prevalent in hospitalized older adults. Little is known about delirium among older adults admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to describe the incidence of delirium, length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality rates experienced by older adults in the SICU before and after a nurse-driven protocol for delirium-informed care. METHODS: This study employed a retrospective observational cohort design. Consecutive patients 65 years or older admitted to the SICU over six-month periods were compared before (n = 101) and following (n = 172) a nurse-driven protocol for delirium-informed care. Patient-level outcomes included incidence delirium, SICU and hospital length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality rates. All measures were collected using medical record review. RESULTS: In the pre- and post-intervention cohorts, 37% (37/101) and 33% (56/172) of patients screened positive for delirium, respectively. Following implementation of the delirium-informed care intervention, the number of days where no CAM-ICU assessment was performed significantly decreased (Pre 1.1 ± 1.4; Post 0.45 ± 0.65; p <0.001) and the number of negative assessments significantly increased (Pre 2.45 ± 1.66; Post 2.94 ± 1.69; p < 0.0178), indicating that nurses post-intervention were more consistently assessing for delirium. CONCLUSIONS: This study failed to show improvements in patient outcomes (SICU and hospital length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality rates), before and following a delirium-informed care intervention. However, positive trends in the data suggest that delirium-informed care has the potential to increase rates of assessment and delirium identification, thereby providing the foundation for reducing the consequences of delirium and improve patient-level outcomes. Further better controlled prospective work is needed to validate this intervention.

Goals-of-Care Consultation Associated With Increased Hospice Enrollment Among Propensity-Matched Cohorts of Seriously Ill African American and White Patients.

CONTEXT: African Americans are less likely to receive hospice care and more likely to receive aggressive end-of-life care than whites. Little is known about how palliative care consultation (PCC) to discuss goals of care is associated with hospice enrollment by race. OBJECTIVES: To compare enrollment in hospice at discharge between propensity-matched cohorts of African Americans with and without PCC and whites with and without PCC. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort study at a high-acuity hospital; using stratified propensity-score matching for 35,154 African Americans and whites aged 18+ admitted for conditions other than childbirth or rehabilitation, who were not hospitalized at end of study, and did not die during index hospitalization (hospitalization during which first PCC occurred). RESULTS: Compared with African Americans without PCC, African Americans with PCC were 15 times more likely to be discharged to hospice from index hospitalization (2.4% vs. 36.5%; P < 0.0001). Compared with white patients without PCC, white patients with PCC were 14 times more likely to be discharged to hospice from index hospitalization (3.0% vs. 42.7%; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In propensity-matched cohorts of seriously ill patients, PCC to discuss goals of care was associated with significant increases in hospice enrollment at discharge among both African Americans and whites. Research is needed to understand how PCC influences decision making by race, how PCC is associated with postdischarge hospice outcomes such as disenrollment and hospice lengths of stay, and if PCC is associated with improving racial disparities in end-of-life care.

Goals-of-Care Consultations Are Associated with Lower Costs and Less Acute Care Use among Propensity-Matched Cohorts of African Americans and Whites with Serious Illness.

Background: African Americans receive more aggressive end-of-life care than Whites. Little is known about how palliative care consultation to discuss goals-of-care ("PCC") is associated with acute care utilization and costs by race. Objective: To compare future acute care costs and utilization between propensity-matched cohorts of African Americans with and without PCC, and Whites with and without PCC. Design: Secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort study. Setting/Subjects: Thirty-five thousand one hundred and fifty-four African Americans and Whites age 18+ admitted for conditions other than childbirth or rehabilitation, who were not hospitalized at the end of the study, and did not die during index hospitalization (hospitalization during which the first PCC occurred). Measurements: Accumulated mean acute care costs and utilization (30-day readmissions, future hospital days, future intensive care unit [ICU] admission, future number of ICU days) after discharge from index hospitalization. Results: No significant difference between African Americans with or without PCC in mean future acute care costs ($11,651 vs. $15,050, p = 0.09), 30-day readmissions (p = 0.58), future hospital days (p = 0.34), future ICU admission (p = 0.25), or future ICU days (p = 0.30). There were significant differences between Whites with PCC and those without PCC in mean future acute care costs ($8,095 vs. $16,799, p < 0.001), 30-day readmissions (10.2% vs. 16.7%, p < 0.0001), and future days hospitalized (3.7 vs. 6.3 days, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: PCC decreases future acute care costs and utilization in Whites and, directionally but not significantly, in African Americans. Research is needed to explain why utilization and cost disparities persist among African Americans despite PCC.

Palliative Care Consultation for Goals of Care and Future Acute Care Costs: A Propensity-Matched Study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are under increasing pressure to manage costs across multiple episodes of care. Most studies of the financial impact of palliative care have focused on costs during a single hospitalization. OBJECTIVE: To compare future acute health-care costs and utilization between patients who received inpatient palliative care consultation for goals of care (Palliative Care Service [PCS]) and a propensity-matched cohort of patients who did not receive palliative care consultation (non-PCS) in a single academic medical center. METHODS: Data were extracted from the hospital's electronic records for admissions and discharges between July 2014 and October 2016. A stratified propensity score matching was used to account for nonrandom assignment and potential inherent differences between PCS and non-PCS groups using variables of theoretical interest: age, gender, race, diagnosis, risk of mortality, and prior acute care costs. RESULTS: The analytical sample for this study included 41 363 patients (PCS = 1853; non-PCS = 39 510). Future acute care costs were significantly higher in the non-PCS group after propensity score matching (highest tier = US$15 654 vs US$8831; second highest tier = US$12 200 vs US$5496; P = .0001). The non-PCS group also had significantly higher future acute care utilization across all propensity tiers and outcomes including 30-day readmission ( P = .0001), number of future hospital days ( P = .0001), and number of future intensive care unit days ( P = .0001). CONCLUSION: Palliative care consultations for goals of care may decrease future health-care utilization with cost savings that persist into future hospitalizations.