ABSTRACT
Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. R0 < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren't positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.
ABSTRACT
The multi-disciplinary French project "Adaptation à la Fiévre de la Vallée du Rift" (AdaptFVR) has concluded a 10-year constructive interaction between many scientists/partners involved with the Rift Valley fever (RVF) dynamics in Senegal. The three targeted objectives reached were (i) to produce--in near real-time--validated risk maps for parked livestock exposed to RVF mosquitoes/vectors bites; (ii) to assess the impacts on RVF vectors from climate variability at different time-scales including climate change; and (iii) to isolate processes improving local livestock management and animal health. Based on these results, concrete, pro-active adaptive actions were taken on site, which led to the establishment of a RVF early warning system (RVFews). Bulletins were released in a timely fashion during the project, tested and validated in close collaboration with the local populations, i.e. the primary users. Among the strategic, adaptive methods developed, conducted and evaluated in terms of cost/benefit analyses are the larvicide campaigns and the coupled bio-mathematical (hydrological and entomological) model technologies, which are being transferred to the staff of the "Centre de Suivi Ecologique" (CSE) in Dakar during 2013. Based on the results from the AdaptFVR project, other projects with similar conceptual and modelling approaches are currently being implemented, e.g. for urban and rural malaria and dengue in the French Antilles.
