District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Gender differences in the surgical management of trachomatous trichiasis: an exploratory analysis of global trachoma survey data, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is a painful, potentially blinding eye condition that can be managed through epilation or surgery. Women are affected by TT approximately twice as often as men and are believed to face gendered barriers to receiving surgical care to prevent vision loss. METHODS: We used data from 817 cross-sectional surveys conducted during 2015-2019 in 20 African countries to estimate the prevalence difference (PD) between female and male eyes for four outcomes potentially indicating gender-related differences in TT management: (1) received surgery and developed postoperative TT (PTT), (2) never offered surgery, (3) offered surgery but declined it, and (4) offered epilation but never offered surgery. RESULTS: The prevalence was modestly elevated among female eyes compared with male eyes for having PTT (PD:1.8 [95% confidence limits (CL): 0.6, 3.0]) and having declined surgery for the eye (PD: 6.2 [95% CL: 1.8, 10.7]). The proportion offered epilation was similar by gender (PD:0.5 [95% CL: -0.4, 1.3]), while never having been offered surgery was somewhat more prevalent among male eyes (PD: -2.1 [95% CL: -3.5, -0.7]). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest potential gender differences in TT management. More research is needed to determine the causes and implications of the observed differences.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Integrated monitoring and evaluation and environmental risk factors for urogenital schistosomiasis and active trachoma in Burkina Faso before preventative chemotherapy using sentinel sites.

BACKGROUND: Over 1 billion of the world's poorest inhabitants are afflicted by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Integrated control programmes aimed at tackling these debilitating NTDs have been recently initiated, mainly using preventative chemotherapy. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of these integrated programs presents particular challenges over and above those required for single disease vertical programmes. We used baseline data from the National NTD Control Programme in Burkina Faso in order to assess the feasibility of an integrated survey design, as well as to elucidate the contribution of environmental variables to the risk of either Schistosoma haematobium, trachoma, or both among school-aged children. METHODS: S. haematobium infection was diagnosed by detecting eggs in urine. A trachoma case was defined by the presence of Trachomatous inflammation-Follicular (TF) and/or Trachomatous inflammation-Intense (TI) in either eye. Baseline data collected from 3,324 children aged 7-11 years in 21 sentinel sites across 11 regions of Burkina Faso were analyzed using simple and multivariable hierarchical binomial logistic regression models fitted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation methods. Probabilities of the risk of belonging to each infection/disease category were estimated as a function of age, gender (individual level), and environmental variables (at sentinel site level, interpolated from national meteorological stations). RESULTS: Overall prevalence at the sentinel sites was 11.79% (95% CI: 10.70-12.89) for S. haematobium; 13.30% (12.14-14.45) for trachoma and 0.84% (0.53-1.15) for co-infections. The only significant predictor of S. haematobium infection was altitude. There were significant negative associations between the prevalence of active trachoma signs and minimum temperature, and air pressure. Conditional upon these predictors, these data are consistent with the two pathogens being independent. CONCLUSIONS: Urogenital schistosomiasis and trachoma constitute public health problems in Burkina Faso. Sentinel site (at school level) surveys for these two NTDs can be implemented simultaneously. However, to support MDA treatment decisions in Burkina Faso, the protocol used in this study would only be applicable to hypoendemic trachoma areas. More research is needed to confirm if these findings can be generalized to West Africa and beyond.