ABSTRACT
The role of social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic mitigation planning. However, the timing of 2009 pandemic provides a natural experiment for evaluating the impact of school closure during holidays on influenza transmission. To quantify the transmission intensity of the influenza A (H1N1) pdm'09 in India, by estimating the time varying reproduction number (Rt) and correlating the temporal changes in the estimates of Rt for different regions of India with the timing of school holidays. We used daily lab-confirmed case reports of influenza A (H1N1) pdm'09 in India (during 17 May'09 to 17 May'10), stratified by regions. We estimated the transmissibility of the pandemic for different regions from these time-series, using Bayesian methods applied to a branching process model of disease spread and correlated the resulting estimates with the timing of school holidays in each region. The North-west region experienced two notable waves, with the peak of the first wave coinciding with the start of a 4 week school holiday (September-October'09). In the southern region the two waves were less clear cut, though again the first peak of the first wave coincided with the start of school holidays--albeit of less than 2 weeks duration (August'09). Our analysis suggests that the school holidays had a significant influence on the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic in India. We estimate that school holidays reduced the reproduction number by 14-27% in different regions of India, relative to levels seen outside holiday periods. The estimates of the reproduction number obtained (with peak R values below 1.5) are compatible with those reported from other regions of the world. This work reinforces past studies showing the significant impact of school holidays on spread of 2009 pandemic virus, and by inference the role of contact patterns in children on transmission.
Subject(s)
Disease Transmission, Infectious , Holidays , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/transmission , Pandemics , Students/statistics & numerical data , Bayes Theorem , Child , Holidays/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , India/epidemiology , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Influenza, Human/virology , Mathematical Computing , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Population Surveillance , Schools , SeasonsABSTRACT
PIP: This article on age at marriage in the Indian context uses 1981 census data in an attempt to highlight the trend, pattern, and differentials in age at marriage by rural-urban residence, state, religion, and educational levels, while attempting to hypothesize theories concerning those trends. An examination of the proportion of young females ever married indicates that a major change in social attitudes has occurred in India over the past 2 decades. The proportion of rural females 15-19 ever married dropped from 75% in 1961, to 62% in 1971, and 57.6% in 1981. Significant decreases in the proportion ever married also occurred for females aged 20-24. The shift in the age at marriage from earlier to older ages and the increasing difference in the rural-urban proportion of those ever married are additional features of a population in the mid-transition period during which fertility starts to decline following a rapid decline in mortality as observed in the case of India. Christians marry a little later than Sikhs, who marry a little later than Jains, while Buddhists marry a little earlier than Muslims and Hindus. The projected shortage of females of marriageable age should induce parents to delay the marriage of their daughters while continuing to invest in their future prospects through providing a greater amount of education. The combination of increased education, later marriage, and projected changes in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to significant changes in the status of women in India.^ieng
Subject(s)
Attitude , Birth Rate , Child , Educational Status , Fertility , Geography , Marriage , Mortality , Population Characteristics , Religion , Residence Characteristics , Rural Population , Social Change , Social Class , Urban Population , Women's Rights , Adolescent , Age Factors , Asia , Behavior , Demography , Developing Countries , Economics , India , Population , Population Dynamics , Population Growth , Psychology , Socioeconomic FactorsABSTRACT
"In this paper an attempt has been made to estimate return migration from the destination state of migrants for 15 major Indian states during 1961-71 among the life-time inter-state migrants enumerated in the 1961 census. The model used for estimation is based on the procedure suggested by Zachariah (1967) for estimating return migration from two census data." The results indicate that of the almost 13 million interstate migrants enumerated in the 1961 census, about 4.7 million returned during the period 1961-1971. Factors affecting this return migration are considered.
