Correction: Modelling Neanderthals' dispersal routes from Caucasus towards east.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281978.].

Mapping endemic freshwater fish richness to identify high-priority areas for conservation: An ecoregion approach.

Freshwater ecosystems are experiencing accelerating global biodiversity loss. Thus, knowing where these unique ecosystems' species richness reaches a peak can facilitate their conservation planning. By hosting more than 290 freshwater fishes, Iran is a major freshwater fish hotspot in the Middle East. Considering the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, there is an urgent need to identify species-rich areas and understand the mechanisms driving biodiversity distribution. In this study, we gathered distribution records of all endemic freshwater fishes of Iran (85 species) to develop their richness map and determine the most critical drivers of their richness patterns from an ecoregion approach. We performed a generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson distribution to identify contemporary and historical determinants of endemic freshwater fish richness. We also quantified endemic fish similarity among the 15 freshwater ecoregions of Iran. Results showed that endemic freshwater fish richness is highest in the Zagros Mountains while a moderate level of richness was observed between Zagros and Alborz Mountains. High, moderate, and low richness of endemic freshwater fish match with Upper Tigris & Euphrates, Namak, and Kavir & Lut Deserts ecoregions respectively. Kura - South Caspian Drainages and Caspian Highlands were the most similar ecoregions and Orumiyeh was the most unique ecoregion according to endemic fish presence. Precipitation and precipitation change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum were the most important predictors of endemic freshwater fish richness. Areas identified to have the highest species richness have high priority for the conservation of freshwater fish in Iran, therefore, should be considered in future protected areas development.

Mapping current and future risk of scorpion sting from a species with low medical concern, Mesobuthus phillipsii (Scorpiones: Buthidae) in Iran.

Scorpion stings are one of the most important health challenges and high priority research topic in public health. In this study, we aimed to model habitat suitability of the Mesobuthus phillipsii (Pocock 1889), a species with low medical concern, under current and future climatic conditions in Iran. We also identified vulnerable populations to scorpion stings in the country. Scorpion sting risk modeling was done using an ensemble approach by considering two species distribution modeling methods: MaxEnt and Random Forest methods. Distribution modeling was performed using the sdm R package. The results showed that due to climate change in 2070, the high-risk areas will increase from 20,839 to 79,212 km2. Habitats with a moderate risk of scorpion stings will also increase from 139,347 to 222,833 km2. Consequently, the number of villages in high-risk areas of scorpion stings will increase from 2,870 to 7,017, while this number will increase from 12,759 to 20,104 in the case of medium-risk villages. The results of this study can be used for scorpion stings management in Iran. This study can be used as an example for similar studies on scorpions with high medical emergency.

Predicting current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.

Climate change will affect the distribution of species in the future. To determine the vulnerable areas relating to CL in Iran, we applied two models, MaxEnt and RF, for the projection of the future distribution of the main vectors and reservoirs of CL. The results of the models were compared in terms of performance, species distribution maps, and the gain, loss, and stable areas. The models provided a reasonable estimate of species distribution. The results showed that the Northern and Southern counties of Iran, which currently do not have a high incidence of CL may witness new foci in the future. The Western, and Southwestern regions of the Country, which currently have high habitat suitability for the presence of some vectors and reservoirs, will probably significantly decrease in the future. Furthermore, the most stable areas are for T. indica and M. hurrianae in the future. So that, this species may remain a major reservoir in areas that are present under current conditions. With more local studies in the field of identifying vulnerable areas to CL, it can be suggested that the national CL control guidelines should be revised to include a section as a climate change adaptation plan.

Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change for community education and antivenom distribution.

Snakebite is one of the largest risks from wildlife, however little is known about venomous snake distribution, spatial variation in snakebite risk, potential changes in snakebite risk pattern due to climate change, and vulnerable human population. As a consequence, management and prevention of snakebite is hampered by this lack of information. Here we used habitat suitability modeling for 10 medically important venomous snakes to identify high snakebite risk area under climate change in Iran. We identified areas with high snakebite risk in Iran and showed that snakebite risk will increase in some parts of the country. Our results also revealed that mountainous areas (Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh mountains) will experience highest changes in species composition. We underline that in order to improve snakebite management, areas which were identified with high snakebite risk in Iran need to be prioritized for the distribution of antivenom medication and awareness rising programs among vulnerable human population.

Modelling Neanderthals' dispersal routes from Caucasus towards east.

The study of the cultural materials associated with the Neanderthal physical remains from the sites in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Siberian Altai and adjacent areas documents two distinct techno-complexes of Micoquian and Mousterian. These findings potentially outline two dispersal routes for the Neanderthals out of Europe. Using data on topography and Palaeoclimate, we generated computer-based least-cost-path modelling for the Neanderthal dispersal routes from Caucasus towards the east. In this regard, two dispersal routes have been identified: A northern route from Greater Caucasus associated with Micoquian techno-complex towards Siberian Altai and a southern route from Lesser Caucasus associated with Mousterian towards Siberian Altai via the Southern Caspian Corridor. Based on archaeological, bio- and physio-geographical data, our model hypothesises that during climatic deterioration phases (e.g. MIS 4) the connection between Greater and Lesser Caucasus was limited. This issue perhaps resulted in the separate development and spread of two cultural groups of Micoquian and Mousterian with an input from two different population sources of Neanderthal influxes: eastern and southern Europe refugia for these two northern and southern dispersal routes respectively. Of these two, we focus on the southern dispersal route, for it comprises a 'rapid dispersal route' towards east. The significant location of the Southern Caspian corridor between high mountains of Alborz and the Caspian Sea, provided a special biogeographical zone and a refugium. This exceptional physio-geographic condition brings forward the Southern Caspian corridor as a potential place of admixture of different hominin species including Neanderthals and homo sapiens.

Modeling habitat suitability of bats to identify high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation.

Bats provide important ecosystem services but face severe threats due to land and climate changes. Although bats are an important component of mammal diversity in Iran, the ecology of many species remains virtually unstudied in the country. Here we applied the maximum entropy approach to model habitat suitability of bat species in Iran, identify the most important variables for their distribution, predict high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation, and estimate the coverage of the bat species' suitable habitats by the existing protected areas. We created a richness map for the twelve species to identify high priority areas for field monitoring and conservation. The results of species distribution modeling showed that Pipistrellus kuhlii (828,977.2 km2) and Miniopterus pallidus (646,581.9 km2) had the largest distribution ranges and Rhinopoma microphyllum (211,202.7 km2) and Rousettus aegyptiacus (218,278.6 km2) had the smallest distribution ranges in Iran. By averaging the importance of each ecological variable across the 12 species, we found that distance to forests (with a negative association) is the most important ecological driver of bat distribution in Iran. The Zagros Mountains were identified as a hotspot of bats based on the distribution of the 12 species. Our findings showed that small proportions of each species suitable habitats were covered by protected areas and protected suitable habitats varied from 3.2%for Pipistrellus kuhlii to15.9% for Tadarida teniotis. This study highlights the importance of forests for bat conservation showing that forest conservation is a high priority in the country. Areas which have the highest richness should be prioritized for field monitoring and conservation.

Reptile species richness associated to ecological and historical variables in Iran.

Spatial gradients of species richness can be shaped by the interplay between historical and ecological factors. They might interact in particularly complex ways in heterogeneous mountainous landscapes with strong climatic and geological contrasts. We mapped the distribution of 171 lizard species to investigate species richness patterns for all species (171), diurnal species (101), and nocturnal species (70) separately. We related species richness with the historical (past climate change, mountain uplifting) and ecological variables (climate, topography and vegetation). We found that assemblages in the Western Zagros Mountains, north eastern and north western parts of Central Iranian Plateau have the highest number of lizard species. Among the investigated variables, annual mean temperature explained the largest variance for all species (10%) and nocturnal species (31%). For diurnal species, temperature change velocity shows strongest explained variance in observed richness pattern (26%). Together, our results reveal that areas with annual temperature of 15-20 °C, which receive 400-600 mm precipitation and experienced moderate level of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have highest number of species. Documented patterns of our study provide a baseline for understanding the potential effect of ongoing climate change on lizard diversity in Iran.

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicating factor.

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modelling methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling, Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes' habitat suitability (Macrovipera lebetinus, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja oxiana) were modelled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetinus, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. Precipitation seasonality was identified as the most important variable influencing distribution of the P. persicus, E. carinatus and M. lebetinus in Iran. Precipitation of the driest quarter was the most important predictor of suitable habitats of the N. oxiana. Since climatic variables play an important role in shaping the distribution of the four venomous snakes in Iran, thus their distribution may alter with changing climate. This paper demonstrates application of species distribution modelling in public health research and identified potential snakebite risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes' habitat suitability models as an indicating factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human-snake conflict management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest snakebite risk.

Species distribution models advance our knowledge of the Neanderthals' paleoecology on the Iranian Plateau.

Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) were distributed across a vast region from Europe to western and Central Asia. The Neanderthals' paleoecology and distribution has been extensively studied in Europe where the species originated. However, very little is known about their paleoecology in south-western Asia. Here, we employed species distribution modelling and 45 Middle Palaeolithic (c. 200,000-40,000 years BCE) sites location associated with fossil and/or lithic artefacts made by the Neanderthals to examine the expansion of the Neanderthals on the Iranian Plateau in south-western Asia. We estimated the niche overlap between Neanderthals and wild goat, wild sheep and Persian gazelle by modelling their past distribution using 200, 143 and 110 occurrence records respectively. The results show that Neanderthals had highest niche overlap with wild goat in the study area. This analysis revealed that the most suitable Neanderthals' habitats in south-western Asia were located in the Zagros Mountains stretches from north-western and western and some isolated patches in the central parts of the Iranian Plateau. The annual precipitation and maximum temperature of the warmest month were the most important predictor of the species' distribution. This finding shows that the southern edge of the Neanderthals distribution was limited by warm summer. Our results provide important information for future field investigations and excavations in the area.