Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting perioperative mortality.

BACKGROUND: Machine-learning models are susceptible to external influences which can result in performance deterioration. The aim of our study was to elucidate the impact of a sudden shift in covariates, like the one caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, on model performance. METHODS: After ethical approval and registration in Clinical Trials (NCT04092933, initial release 17/09/2019), we developed different models for the prediction of perioperative mortality based on preoperative data: one for the pre-pandemic data period until March 2020, one including data before the pandemic and from the first wave until May 2020, and one that covers the complete period before and during the pandemic until October 2021. We applied XGBoost as well as a Deep Learning neural network (DL). Performance metrics of each model during the different pandemic phases were determined, and XGBoost models were analysed for changes in feature importance. RESULTS: XGBoost and DL provided similar performance on the pre-pandemic data with respect to area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC, 0.951 vs. 0.942) and area under precision-recall curve (AUPR, 0.144 vs. 0.187). Validation in patient cohorts of the different pandemic waves showed high fluctuations in performance from both AUROC and AUPR for DL, whereas the XGBoost models seemed more stable. Change in variable frequencies with onset of the pandemic were visible in age, ASA score, and the higher proportion of emergency operations, among others. Age consistently showed the highest information gain. Models based on pre-pandemic data performed worse during the first pandemic wave (AUROC 0.914 for XGBoost and DL) whereas models augmented with data from the first wave lacked performance after the first wave (AUROC 0.907 for XGBoost and 0.747 for DL). The deterioration was also visible in AUPR, which worsened by over 50% in both XGBoost and DL in the first phase after re-training. CONCLUSIONS: A sudden shift in data impacts model performance. Re-training the model with updated data may cause degradation in predictive accuracy if the changes are only transient. Too early re-training should therefore be avoided, and close model surveillance is necessary.

Sex-specific issues of central and peripheral arginine-vasopressin concentrations in neurocritical care patients.

BACKGROUND: Arginine-Vasopressin (AVP) is a nonapeptide that exerts multiple functions within the central nervous system and in the blood circulation that might contribute to outcome in critically ill patients. Sex differences have been found for mental and physical effects of AVP. For example, stress response and response due to hemorrhage differ between males and females, at least in animal studies. Data on humans -especially on AVP within the central nervous system (CNS)-are scarce, as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) which is said to represent central AVP activity, has to be collected by means of invasive procedures. Here we present data on 30 neurocritical care patients where we simultaneously collected blood, CSF and saliva to analyze concentrations in the central and peripheral compartments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 30 neurocritical care patients were included (13 male, 13 postmenopausal female, 4 premenopausal female) with a median age of 60 years. CSF, plasma and saliva were obtained simultaneously once in each patient and analyzed for AVP concentrations. Correlations between the central compartment represented by CSF, and the peripheral compartment represented by plasma and saliva, were identified. Relations between AVP concentrations and serum sodium and hematocrit were also determined. RESULTS: In the whole patient collective, only very weak to weak correlations could be detected between AVP plasma/CSF, plasma/saliva and CSF/saliva as well as between AVP concentrations in each of the compartments and serum sodium/hematocrit. Regarding the subgroup of postmenopausal females, a significant moderate correlation could be detected for AVP in plasma and CSF and AVP CSF and serum sodium. CONCLUSION: Absolute concentrations of AVP in central and peripheral compartments did not show sex differences. However, correlations between AVP plasma and CSF and AVP CSF and serum sodium in postmenopausal females indicate differences in AVP secretion and AVP response to triggers that deserve further examination.

Plasma oxytocin and vasopressin do not predict neuropeptide concentrations in human cerebrospinal fluid.

The involvement of the neuropeptides oxytocin (OXT) and vasopressin (AVP) in human socio-emotional behaviours is attracting increasing attention. There is ample evidence for elevated plasma levels upon a wide variety of social and emotional stimuli and scenarios, ranging from romantic love via marital distress up to psychopathology, with cause versus consequence being largely unclear. The present study examined whether plasma levels of both OXT and AVP are reflective of central neuropeptide levels, as assumed to impact upon socio-emotional behaviours. Concomitant plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples were taken from 41 non-neurological and nonpsychiatric patients under basal conditions. Although OXT and AVP levels in the CSF exceeded those in plasma, there was no correlation between both compartments, clearly suggesting that plasma OXT and AVP do not predict central neuropeptide concentrations. Thus, the validity of plasma OXT and AVP as potential biomarkers of human behaviour needs further clarification.

Soluble amyloid precursor protein ß as blood-based biomarker of Alzheimer's disease.

The aim of this study was to explore concentrations differences of soluble amyloid precursor protein (sAPP) α and ß in blood plasma in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) and cognitively healthy age-matched control subjects, as well as patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). Concentrations of sAPPα and ß were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technology in 80 patients with probable AD, 37 age-matched control subjects and 14 patients with bvFTD. Concentration differences were explored using parametric tests. Significantly decreased plasma concentrations in the AD group compared with both the control group and the bvFTD group were detected for sAPPß (P = 0.03 for both group comparisons), but not for sAPPα. The study provides a further piece of evidence in support of sAPPß as a promising new biomarker of AD, which may potentially improve the diagnostic accuracy of existing markers and also enable a less invasive diagnostic workup. Further research is required to establish normal ranges and to replicate the results in independent cohorts including larger numbers of participants covering a wider spectrum of cognitive impairment.

Elevated premorbid body mass index is not associated with poor neurological outcome in the subacute state after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: An elevated body mass index (BMI) is suggested to be a risk factor for a poor outcome after intracranial aneurysm rupture and is considered to be associated with cerebral infarction in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The aim of this study was to analyze the association between permorbid BMI and neurological outcome. METHODS: In this retrospective study, the patients' BMI at the time of their admission to hospital was correlated to their neurological outcome as measured by the Glasgow outcome score after two weeks and two months of treatment. RESULTS: In contrast to other studies, there were no significant correlations between premorbid BMI and neurological outcome, shunt requirement, tracheotomy requirement and duration of stay on the intensive care unit (ICU). CONCLUSIONS: Overweight patients have no higher risk of a poor neurological outcome after aneurysmal SAH if premorbid risk factors such as hypertension and hyperglycemia are carefully modified throughout the period of critical care.

Pituitary dysfunction after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Patients recovering from aneurysmal SAH often complain about weakness, fatigue and impaired cognitive skills. Pituitary dysfunction might be one possible reason for these complaints, as in patients with traumatic brain injury, hypopituitarism is known to be a common complication. There are only a few studies dealing with this problem in SAH patients, but these studies suggest that pituitary disturbances are very frequent after aneurysmal SAH. But anterior pituitary lobe disturbances might not be the only one responsible for some complaints or complications in patients suffering from aneurysmal SAH. Hyponatremia in the early state after SAH could be a hint for posterior pituitary lobe dysfunction.