Socio-Behavioural Barriers to Viral Suppression in the Older Adult Population in Rural South Africa.

South Africa has the largest share of people living with HIV in the world and this population is ageing. The social context in which people seek HIV care is often ignored. Apart from clinical interventions, socio-behavioural factors impact successful HIV care outcomes for older adults living with HIV. We use cross-sectional data linked with demographic household surveillance data, consisting of HIV positive adults aged above 40, to identify socio-behavioural predictors of a detectable viral load. Older adults were more likely to have a detectable viral load if they did not disclose their HIV positive status to close family members (aOR 2.56, 95% CI 1.89-3.46), resided in the poorest households (aOR 1.98, 95% CI 1.23-3.18), or were not taking medications other than ART (aOR 1.83, 95% CI 1.02-1.99) likely to have a detectable. Clinical interventions in HIV care must be supported by understanding the socio-behavioural barriers that occur outside the health facility. The importance of community health care workers in bridging this gap may offer more optimum outcomes for older adults ageing with HIV.

A System-Wide Population Health Value Approach to Reduce Hospitalization Among Chronic Kidney Disease Patients: an Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of healthcare morbidity, utilization, and expenditures nationally, and caring for late-stage CKD populations is complex. Improving health system efficiency could mitigate these outcomes and, in the COVID-19 era, reduce risks of viral exposure. OBJECTIVE: As part of a system-wide transformation to improve healthcare value among populations with high healthcare utilization and morbidity, UCLA Health evaluated a new patient-centered approach that we hypothesized would reduce inpatient utilization for CKD patients. DESIGN: For 18 months in 2015-2016 and 12 months in 2017, we conducted an interrupted time series regression analysis to evaluate the intervention's impact on inpatient utilization. We used internal electronic health records and claims data across six payers. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1442 stage 4-5 CKD patients at a large academic medical center. INTERVENTION: Between October and December 2016, the organization implemented a Population Health Value CKD intervention for the CKD stages 4-5 population. A multispecialty leadership team risk stratified the population and identified improvement opportunities, redesigned multispecialty care coordination pathways across settings, and developed greater ambulatory infrastructure to support care needs. MAIN MEASURES: Outcomes included utilization of hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, inpatient bed days, and 30-day all-cause readmissions. KEY RESULTS: During the 12 months following intervention implementation, the monthly estimated rate of decline for hospitalizations was 5.4% (95% CI: 3.4-7.4%), which was 3.4 percentage points faster than the 18-month pre-intervention decline of 2.0% (95% CI: 1.0-2.2%) per month (p = 0.004). Medicare CKD patients' monthly ED visit rate of decline was 3.0% (95% CI: 1.2-4.8%) after intervention, which was 2.6 percentage points faster than the pre-intervention decline of 0.4% (95% CI: - 0.8 to 1.6%) per month (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: By creating care pathways that link primary and specialty care teams across settings with increased ambulatory infrastructure, healthcare systems have potential to reduce inpatient healthcare utilization.

Gut microbiome profiling of a rural and urban South African cohort reveals biomarkers of a population in lifestyle transition.

BACKGROUND: Comparisons of traditional hunter-gatherers and pre-agricultural communities in Africa with urban and suburban Western North American and European cohorts have clearly shown that diet, lifestyle and environment are associated with gut microbiome composition. Yet, little is known about the gut microbiome composition of most communities in the very diverse African continent. South Africa comprises a richly diverse ethnolinguistic population that is experiencing an ongoing epidemiological transition and concurrent spike in the prevalence of obesity, largely attributed to a shift towards more Westernized diets and increasingly inactive lifestyle practices. To characterize the microbiome of African adults living in more mainstream lifestyle settings and investigate associations between the microbiome and obesity, we conducted a pilot study, designed collaboratively with community leaders, in two South African cohorts representative of urban and transitioning rural populations. As the rate of overweight and obesity is particularly high in women, we collected single time-point stool samples from 170 HIV-negative women (51 at Soweto; 119 at Bushbuckridge), performed 16S rRNA gene sequencing on these samples and compared the data to concurrently collected anthropometric data. RESULTS: We found the overall gut microbiome of our cohorts to be reflective of their ongoing epidemiological transition. Specifically, we find that geographical location was more important for sample clustering than lean/obese status and observed a relatively higher abundance of the Melainabacteria, Vampirovibrio, a predatory bacterium, in Bushbuckridge. Also, Prevotella, despite its generally high prevalence in the cohorts, showed an association with obesity. In comparisons with benchmarked datasets representative of non-Western populations, relatively higher abundance values were observed in our dataset for Barnesiella (log2fold change (FC) = 4.5), Alistipes (log2FC = 3.9), Bacteroides (log2FC = 4.2), Parabacteroides (log2FC = 3.1) and Treponema (log2FC = 1.6), with the exception of Prevotella (log2FC = - 4.7). CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, this work identifies putative microbial features associated with host health in a historically understudied community undergoing an epidemiological transition. Furthermore, we note the crucial role of community engagement to the success of a study in an African setting, the importance of more population-specific studies to inform targeted interventions as well as present a basic foundation for future research.

Gender Norms and HIV Testing/Treatment Uptake: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Sample in South Africa.

How does the endorsement of different dimensions of gender norms by men and/or women influence their use of HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment? This question was examined using data from a 2014 population-based survey of 1053 women and 1004 men, ages 18-49, in rural South Africa. We used a global measure for views toward gender norms (the GEM Scale), plus four subsets of scale items (all reliabilities ≥ 0.7). In multivariate analyses using the global measure, endorsement of inequitable gender norms was associated with more testing (AOR 2.47, p < 0.01) and less treatment use (AOR 0.15, p < 0.01) among women but not men. When examining specific subsets of inequitable norms (e.g., endorsing men as the primary decision-maker), decreased odds of treatment use was found for men as well (AOR 0.18, p < 0.01). Careful attention to the role specific gender norms play in HIV service uptake can yield useful programmatic recommendations.

Gross motor skills of South African preschool-aged children across different income settings.

OBJECTIVES: No studies have investigated gross motor skill (GMS) proficiency of preschool-aged children across different income settings in South Africa. Research from high-income countries suggests that children from low-income settings display poorer GMS proficiency compared to higher-income peers. This study aimed to (1) describe GMS proficiency of preschool-aged children in urban high-income (UH), urban low-income (UL) and rural low-income (RL) settings; and (2) explore differences in proficiency between income settings and sex. DESIGN: Descriptive cross-sectional study. METHODS: The Test of Gross Motor Development-Edition 2 (TGMD-2) was used to assess GMS. The TGMD-2 gross motor quotient, standardised scores and raw scores were used to describe proficiency. RESULTS: GMS proficiency was assessed in n=259 3-6-year-old children (n=46 UH, n=91 UL, n=122 RL). Overall, 93% of the children were classified as having 'average' or better GMS. According to TGMD-2 standardised scores, the RL children performed significantly better than UH and UL children (p=0.028 and p=0.009, respectively). RL children were significantly more proficient than UH and UL children in the strike and horizontal jump when comparing raw scores. Overall, boys performed significantly better than girls in the strike, stationary dribble, kick and leap when comparing raw scores (all p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study reports high GMS proficiency in preschool-aged children across income settings in South Africa. The factors associated with higher GMS in low-income settings are not immediately obvious. Thus, future research should explore potential factors and identify opportunities to ensure that GMS proficiency is capitalised on as preschool-aged children enter formal schooling.

The associations between interpersonal violence and psychological distress among rural and urban young women in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 25% of the world's population consists of young people. The experience of violence peaks during adolescence and the early adult years. A link between personal experience of violence and mental health among young people has been demonstrated but rural-urban differences in these associations are less well known in low to middle income countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between interpersonal violence and psychological distress among rural and urban young women. METHODS: Data on experiences of violence and psychological distress were collected from a total of 926 non-pregnant young women aged between 18 and 22 years of age in rural and urban sites in South Africa. The General Health Questionnaire-28 was used to assess psychological distress as an indicator of mental health. Generalised structural equation models were employed to assess potential pathways of association between interpersonal violence and psychological distress. RESULTS: Thirty-four percent of the urban young women (n = 161) reported psychological distress compared to 18% of rural young women (n = 81). In unadjusted analysis, exposure to interpersonal violence doubled the odds of psychological distress in the urban adolescents and increased the odds 1.6 times in the rural adolescents. In adjusted models, the relationship remained significant in the urban area only (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.13-3.00). Rural residence seemed protective against psychological distress (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.24-0.69). Structural equation modelling did not reveal any direct association between exposure to interpersonal violence and psychological distress among rural young women. Stressful household events were indirectly associated with psychological distress, mediated by violence among young women in the urban area. CONCLUSION: The relationship between violence and psychological distress differs between urban and rural-residing young women in South Africa, and is influenced by individual, household and community (contextual) factors.

Temporal association of rotavirus vaccination and genotype circulation in South Africa: Observations from 2002 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccination has reduced diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality globally. The monovalent rotavirus vaccine was introduced into the public immunization program in South Africa (SA) in 2009 and led to approximately 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization in young children. The aim of this study was to investigate the rotavirus genotype distribution in SA before and after vaccine introduction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In addition to pre-vaccine era surveillance conducted from 2002 to 2008 at Dr George Mukhari Hospital (DGM), rotavirus surveillance among children <5 years hospitalized for acute diarrhoea was established at seven sentinel sites in SA from April 2009 to December 2014. Stool specimens were screened by enzyme immunoassay and rotavirus positive specimens genotyped using standardised methods. RESULTS: At DGM, there was a significant decrease in G1 strains from pre-vaccine introduction (34%; 479/1418; 2002-2009) compared to post-vaccine introduction (22%; 37/170; 2010-2014; p for trend <.001). Similarly, there was a significant increase in non-G1P[8] strains at this site (p for trend <.001). In expanded sentinel surveillance, when adjusted for age and site, the odds of rotavirus detection in hospitalized children with diarrhoea declined significantly from 2009 (46%; 423/917) to 2014 (22%; 205/939; p<.001). The odds of G1 detection declined significantly from 2009 (53%; 224/421) to 2010-2011 (26%; 183/703; aOR=0.5; p<.001) and 2012-2014 (9%; 80/905; aOR=0.1; p<.001). Non-G1P[8] strains showed a significant increase from 2009 (33%; 139/421) to 2012-2014 (52%; 473/905; aOR=2.5; p<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Rotavirus vaccination of children was associated with temporal changes in circulating genotypes. Despite these temporal changes in circulating genotypes, the overall reduction in rotavirus disease in South Africa remains significant.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas. METHODS: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates. RESULTS: Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Norovirus epidemiology in South African children <5 years hospitalised for diarrhoeal illness between 2009 and 2013.

Public health interest in norovirus (NoV) has increased in recent years following improved diagnostics, global burden estimates and the development of NoV vaccine candidates. This study aimed to describe the detection rate, clinical characteristics and environmental features associated with NoV detection in hospitalized children <5 years with diarrhoea in South Africa (SA). Between 2009 and 2013, prospective diarrhoeal surveillance was conducted at four sites in SA. Stool specimens were collected and screened for NoVs and other enteric pathogens using molecular and serological assays. Epidemiological and clinical data were compared in patients with or without detection of NoV. The study detected NoV in 15% (452/3103) of hospitalized children <5 years with diarrhoea with the majority of disease in children <2 years (92%; 417/452). NoV-positive children were more likely to present with diarrhoea and vomiting (odds ratio (OR) 1·3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1-1·7; P = 0·011) with none-to-mild dehydration (adjusted OR 0·5; 95% CI 0·3-0·7) compared with NoV-negative children. Amongst children testing NoV positive, HIV-infected children were more likely to have prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality compared with HIV-uninfected children. Continued surveillance will be important to consider the epidemic trends and estimate the burden and risk of NoV infection in SA.

Oncologists' perspectives on post-cancer treatment communication and care coordination with primary care physicians.

Post-treatment cancer care is often fragmented and of suboptimal quality. We explored factors that may affect cancer survivors' post-treatment care coordination, including oncologists' use of electronic technologies such as e-mail and integrated electronic health records (EHRs) to communicate with primary care physicians (PCPs). We used data from a survey (357 respondents; participation rate 52.9%) conducted in 2012-2013 among medical oncologists caring for patients in a large US study of cancer care delivery and outcomes. Oncologists reported their frequency and mode of communication with PCPs, and role in providing post-treatment care. Seventy-five per cent said that they directly communicated with PCPs about post-treatment status and care recommendations for all/most patients. Among those directly communicating with PCPs, 70% always/usually used written correspondence, while 36% always/usually used integrated EHRs; telephone and e-mail were less used. Eighty per cent reported co-managing with PCPs at least one post-treatment general medical care need. In multivariate-adjusted analyses, neither communication mode nor intensity were associated with co-managing survivors' care. Oncologists' reliance on written correspondence to communicate with PCPs may be a barrier to care coordination. We discuss new research directions for enhancing communication and care coordination between oncologists and PCPs, and to better meet the needs of cancer survivors post-treatment.

The precuneus may encode irrationality in human gambling.

Humans often make irrational decisions, especially psychiatric patients who have dysfunctional cognitive and emotional circuitry. Understanding the neural basis of decision-making is therefore essential towards patient management, yet current studies suffer from several limitations. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies in humans have dominated decision-making neuroscience, but have poor temporal resolution and the blood oxygenation level-dependent signal is only a proxy for neural activity. On the other hand, lesion studies in humans used to infer functionality in decision-making lack characterization of neural activity altogether. Using a combination of local field potential recordings in human subjects performing a financial decision-making task, spectral analyses, and non-parametric cluster statistics, we analyzed the activity in the precuneus. In nine subjects, the neural activity modulated significantly between rational and irrational trials in the precuneus (p <; 0.001). In particular, high-frequency activity (70-100 Hz) increased when irrational decisions were made. Although preliminary, these results suggest suppression of gamma rhythms via electrical stimulation in the precuneus as a therapeutic intervention for pathological decision-making.

The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of the epidemic in a rural area of the country. The data used were collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Study, in the northeast of the country. Throughout the period of study mortality rates were similar in all villages, suggesting that there were multiple index cases evenly spread geographically. These were likely to have been returning migrant workers. For those aged below 39 years the HIV mortality rate was higher for women, above this age it was higher for men. This indicates the protective effect of greater access to HIV testing and treatment among older women. The recent convergence of mortality rates for Mozambicans and South Africans indicates that the former refugee population are being assimilated into the host community. More than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed directly or indirectly to HIV. Recently there has been an increasing level of non-HIV mortality which has important implications for local healthcare provision. This study demonstrates how evidence from longitudinal analyses can support healthcare planning.

H3Africa AWI-Gen Collaborative Centre: a resource to study the interplay between genomic and environmental risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases in four sub-Saharan African countries.

Africa is experiencing a rapid increase in adult obesity and associated cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). The H3Africa AWI-Gen Collaborative Centre was established to examine genomic and environmental factors that influence body composition, body fat distribution and CMD risk, with the aim to provide insights towards effective treatment and intervention strategies. It provides a research platform of over 10 500 participants, 40-60 years old, from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya and South Africa. Following a process that involved community engagement, training of project staff and participant informed consent, participants were administered detailed questionnaires, anthropometric measurements were taken and biospecimens collected. This generated a wealth of demographic, health history, environmental, behavioural and biomarker data. The H3Africa SNP array will be used for genome-wide association studies. AWI-Gen is building capacity to perform large epidemiological, genomic and epigenomic studies across several African counties and strives to become a valuable resource for research collaborations in Africa.

Temporal association of infant immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the ecology of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus nasopharyngeal colonisation in a rural South African community.

BACKGROUND: Immunisation of children with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) may affect the bacterial-ecology of the nasopharynx, including colonisation by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of infant PCV-immunisation on the nasopharyngeal ecology of these potentially pathogenic bacteria in a rural African setting. METHODS: Two cross sectional surveys were undertaken from May to October in 2009 (Period-1) which coincided with the introduction of 7-valent PCV (PCV7) and in May-October 2011 (Period-2). Consenting household members, where there was a child <2 years of age in residence, had nasopharyngeal swabs undertaken for culture. RESULTS: From Period-1 to Period-2 in children 0-2 years and 3-12 years, prevalence of overall S. pneumoniae colonisation decreased from 74.9% to 67.0% (p<0.001) and H. influenzae declined among children 3-12 years (55.1-45.3%, p<0.001) but not among those <2 years. The prevalence of S. aureus remained unchanged in all children. Competitive associations were found between S. pneumoniae and S. aureus and between H. influenzae and S. aureus among children. In individuals >12 years, the prevalence of colonisation decreased from 11.2% to 6.8%, 16.7% to 8.8% and 31.2% to 23.7% for S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and S. aureus, respectively; p<0.001 for all comparions. Synergistic relationships for S. aureus with H. influenzae and S. pneumoniae were observed in both periods among this group.

"It's my secret": barriers to paediatric HIV treatment in a poor rural South African setting.

In South Africa, a third of children born are exposed to HIV, while fewer undergo an HIV confirmatory test. Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) coverage among children remains low-despite roll-out of the national ART programme in South Africa in 2004. This study sought to understand critical barriers to seeking HIV-related care for children in rural South Africa. Data presented in this article derive from community-based qualitative research in poor rural villages in north-east South Africa; this includes 21 in-depth interviews in 2008 among caregivers of children identified as HIV-positive in 2007 from a randomly selected community-based sample. Using NVIVO 8, data were coded and analysed, using a constant comparative method to identify themes and their repetitions and variations. Structural barriers leading to poor access to health care, and social and systems barriers, all influenced paediatric HIV treatment seeking. Of concern was the expressed need to maintain secrecy regarding a child's HIV status to avoid stigma and discrimination, and misconceptions regarding the course of HIV disease in children; this led to a delay in seeking appropriate care. These barriers need to be addressed, including through focused awareness campaigns, improved access to health care and interventions to address rural poverty and development at both household and community levels. In addition, training of health care professionals to improve their attitudes and practice may be necessary. However, this study only provides the perspective of the caregivers; further studies with health care providers are needed to gain a fuller picture for appropriate policy and practice guidance.

Assessment of American College of Rheumatology quality criteria for rheumatoid arthritis in a pre-quality criteria patient cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) starter set of quality measures for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in an actual patient cohort that preceded publication of the quality measures. METHODS: We retrospectively applied the 2006 ACR quality criteria to a prospectively studied cohort of 568 patients with RA treated by 1,932 unique physicians including 255 different rheumatologists between the years 1999 and 2003. Data on performance were obtained from self-report surveys and medical record review within 12 months. RESULTS: At least 1 joint examination was performed in 98% of patients. Patient and physician global assessments were reported for 79% and 74% of patients, respectively. A total of 85% of patients received disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). DMARD adjustments were made for 50% of patients in whom increasing disease activity was noted at least once and for 64% of patients in whom increasing disease activity was noted during 2 (of 4) 3-month periods within the year. Compared with self-report surveys, medical records substantially underreported performance on quality measures. CONCLUSION: The ACR-endorsed quality measures for RA can be assessed using available data sources. When both self-report and medical record data are used, adherence rates, designed to serve as minimum standards of care, were moderate or high for most measures. Prior to using indicators to compare quality across groups, specific strategies for operationalizing measures and for using accurate data sources to assess adherence to the measures should be defined.

Application of explicit process of care measurement to rheumatoid arthritis: Moving from evidence to practice.

OBJECTIVE: To construct quality measures with measurement validity and meaning for clinicians. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of rates of change in disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) and/or systemic corticosteroid drug or dose for 568 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) across 6,159 clinical encounters within 12 months to examine how changes in clinical specifications change adherence. RESULTS: Rates of DMARD change were sensitive to specifications regarding the intensity of disease activity (severe or moderate), duration of specified disease activity, and length of the observation period. Over 12 months, the proportions of 377 patients with severe disease activity observed for 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month time blocks who had a change in DMARD drug or dose were 36%, 57%, and 74%, respectively. Over 12 months, a change in DMARD drug or dose was observed for 44%, 50%, and 68% of 377 patients with severe disease within 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months, respectively, of the patient meeting criteria for severe disease activity. A change in DMARD drug or dose was observed for 21%, 23%, and 34% of 149 patients with moderate disease activity within 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, of the patient meeting criteria for moderate disease activity. CONCLUSION: Rates of pharmacologic interventions for patients with moderate and severe RA disease activity vary substantially by intensity and duration of disease activity and by duration of period for observing change. Lack of precision in explicit process criteria could substantially mislead comparisons of quality of care across comparison groups.

Undiagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis deaths in rural South Africa.

This research explores death from pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) using a verbal autopsy (VA) tool within the established Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in South Africa's rural northeast. Previous work on active case finding in the area highlighted a modest burden of undiagnosed PTB in the community. This VA research confirms the existence of undiagnosed PTB deaths, with 13 (46%) of 28 PTB deaths among the permanent adult population (n = 38,251) going undetected by the health service. There was a median duration of coughing in the community of 16 weeks among these undiagnosed PTB deaths. As most undiagnosed cases present to the health service at some point during their illness, intervention strategies to support early diagnosis at this level can only be re-emphasised by this work.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for major adverse outcomes in coronary bypass grafting.

In this study, we develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule for in-hospital major adverse outcomes, defined as death, renal failure, reinfarction, cardiac arrest, cerebrovascular accident, or coma, in patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). All adult patients (n = 9,498) who underwent a CABG and no other concomitant surgery at 12 academic medical centers from August 1993 to October 1995 were included in the study. We assessed in-hospital major adverse outcomes and their predictors using information on admission, coronary angiography, and postoperative hospital course. Predictor variables were limited to information available before the procedure, and outcome variables were represented only by events that occurred postoperatively. We developed and internally validated a clinical prediction rule for any major adverse outcome after CABG. The rule's ability to discriminate outcomes and its calibration were assessed using receiver-operating characteristic analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, respectively. A major adverse outcome occurred in 6.5% of patients in the derivation set and 7.2% in the validation set. Death occurred in 2.5% of patients in the derivation set and 2.2% in the validation set. Sixteen variables were independently correlated with major adverse outcomes, with the risk score value attributed to each risk factor ranging from 2 to 12 points. The rule stratified patients into 6 levels of risk based on the total risk score. The spread in probability between the lowest and highest risk groups of having a major adverse outcome was 1.7% to 32.3% in the derivation set and 2.2% to 22.3% in the validation set. The prediction model performed well in both outcome discrimination and calibration. Thus, this clinical prediction rule allows accurate stratification of potential CABG candidates before surgery according to the risk of experiencing a major adverse outcome postoperatively.