Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with CKD may be at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, there are no ASCVD risk prediction models developed in CKD populations to inform clinical care and prevention. METHODS: We developed and validated 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models in patients with CKD that included participants without self-reported cardiovascular disease from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. ASCVD was defined as the first occurrence of adjudicated fatal and nonfatal stroke or myocardial infarction. Our models used clinically available variables and novel biomarkers. Model performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: Of 2604 participants (mean age 55.8 years; 52.0% male) included in the analyses, 252 had incident ASCVD within 10 years of baseline. Compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]=0.730), a model with coefficients estimated within the CRIC sample had higher discrimination (P=0.03), achieving an AUC of 0.736 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.649 to 0.826). The CRIC model developed using clinically available variables had an AUC of 0.760 (95% CI, 0.678 to 0.851). The CRIC biomarker-enriched model had an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI, 0.674 to 0.853), which was significantly higher than the clinical model (P=0.001). Both the clinical and biomarker-enriched models were well-calibrated and improved reclassification of nonevents compared with the pooled cohort equations (6.6%; 95% CI, 3.7% to 9.6% and 10.0%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 13.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed in patients with CKD, including novel kidney and cardiac biomarkers, performed better than equations developed for the general population using only traditional risk factors.

Subtyping CKD Patients by Consensus Clustering: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: CKD is a heterogeneous condition with multiple underlying causes, risk factors, and outcomes. Subtyping CKD with multidimensional patient data holds the key to precision medicine. Consensus clustering may reveal CKD subgroups with different risk profiles of adverse outcomes. METHODS: We used unsupervised consensus clustering on 72 baseline characteristics among 2696 participants in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study to identify novel CKD subgroups that best represent the data pattern. Calculation of the standardized difference of each parameter used the cutoff of ±0.3 to show subgroup features. CKD subgroup associations were examined with the clinical end points of kidney failure, the composite outcome of cardiovascular diseases, and death. RESULTS: The algorithm revealed three unique CKD subgroups that best represented patients' baseline characteristics. Patients with relatively favorable levels of bone density and cardiac and kidney function markers, with lower prevalence of diabetes and obesity, and who used fewer medications formed cluster 1 (n=1203). Patients with higher prevalence of diabetes and obesity and who used more medications formed cluster 2 (n=1098). Patients with less favorable levels of bone mineral density, poor cardiac and kidney function markers, and inflammation delineated cluster 3 (n=395). These three subgroups, when linked with future clinical end points, were associated with different risks of CKD progression, cardiovascular disease, and death. Furthermore, patient heterogeneity among predefined subgroups with similar baseline kidney function emerged. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus clustering synthesized the patterns of baseline clinical and laboratory measures and revealed distinct CKD subgroups, which were associated with markedly different risks of important clinical outcomes. Further examination of patient subgroups and associated biomarkers may provide next steps toward precision medicine.

Health-Related Quality of Life, Depressive Symptoms, and Kidney Transplant Access in Advanced CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD), poor self-reported health is associated with adverse outcomes including hospitalization and death. We sought to examine the association between health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and depressive symptoms in advanced CKD and subsequent access to the kidney transplant waiting list. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & POPULATION: 1,676 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates ≤ 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 at study entry or during follow-up. EXPOSURES: HRQoL ascertained by 5 scales of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 Survey (Physical Component Summary [PCS], Mental Component Summary, Symptoms, Burdens, and Effects), with higher scores indicating better HRQoL, and depressive symptoms ascertained using the Beck Depression Inventory. OUTCOMES: Time to kidney transplant wait-listing and time to pre-emptive wait-listing. ANALYTIC APPROACH: Time-to-event analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 652 (39%) participants were wait-listed, of whom 304 were preemptively wait-listed. Adjusted for demographics, comorbid conditions, estimated glomerular filtration rate slope, and cognitive function, participants with the highest scores on the Burden and Effects scales, respectively, had lower rates of wait-listing than those with the lowest scores on the Burden (wait-listing adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85; P < 0.001) and Effects scales (wait-listing aHR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59-0.92; P = 0.007). Participants with fewer depressive symptoms (ie, Beck Depression Inventory score < 14) had lower wait-listing rates than those with more depressive symptoms (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-0.99; P = 0.04). Participants with lower Burden and Effects scale scores and those with higher Symptoms and PCS scores had higher pre-emptive wait-listing rates (aHR in highest tertile of PCS relative to lowest tertile, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.12-2.23; P = 0.01). LIMITATIONS: Unmeasured confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported health in late-stage CKD may influence the timing of kidney transplantation.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Persons With CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: A large residual risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD) despite treatment with statins. We sought to evaluate the associations of lipid and apolipoprotein levels with risk for ASCVD in individuals with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 21 to 74 years with non-dialysis-dependent CKD at baseline enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study in 7 clinical study centers in the United States. PREDICTOR: Baseline total cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C), triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), apolipoprotein B (Apo-B), HDL-C, and apolipoprotein AI (Apo-AI) values stratified into tertiles. OUTCOME: A composite ASCVD event of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke. ANALYTIC APPROACH: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the risk for ASCVD for each tertile of lipoprotein predictor. RESULTS: Among 3,811 CRIC participants (mean age, 57.7 years; 41.8% white), there were 451 ASCVD events during a median follow-up of 7.9 years. There was increased ASCVD risk among participants with VLDL-C levels in the highest tertile (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.64), Apo-B levels in the middle tertile (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64), HDL-C levels in the middle and lowest tertiles (HRs of 1.40 [95% CI, 1.08-1.83] and 1.77 [95% CI, 1.35-2.33], respectively), and Apo-AI levels in the middle and lowest tertiles (HRs of 1.77 [95% CI, 1.02-1.74] and 1.77 [95% CI, 1.36-2.32], respectively). LDL-C level was not significantly associated with the ASCVD outcome in this population (HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.77-1.30] for the highest tertile). LIMITATIONS: Associations based on observational data do not permit inferences about causal associations. CONCLUSIONS: Higher VLDL-C and Apo-B levels, as well as lower HDL-C and Apo-AI levels, are associated with increased risk for ASCVD. These findings support future investigations into pharmacologic targeting of lipoproteins beyond LDL-C, such as triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, to reduce residual risk for ASCVD among individuals with CKD.

Risk factors for progression of coronary artery calcification in patients with chronic kidney disease: The CRIC study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is common among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and predicts the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined the associations of novel risk factors with CAC progression among patients with CKD. METHODS: Among 1123 CKD patients in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study, CAC was measured in Agatston units at baseline and a follow-up visit using electron beam computed tomography or multidetector computed tomography. RESULTS: Over an average 3.3-year follow-up, 109 (25.1%) participants without CAC at baseline had incident CAC and 124 (18.0%) participants with CAC at baseline had CAC progression, defined as an annual increase of ≥100 Agatston units. After adjustment for established atherosclerotic risk factors, several novel risk factors were associated with changes in CAC over follow-up. Changes in square root transformed CAC score associated with 1 SD greater level of risk factors were -0.20 (95% confidence interval, -0.31 to -0.10; p < 0.001) for estimated glomerular filtration rate, 0.14 (0.02-0.25; p = 0.02) for 24-h urine albumin, 0.25 (0.15-0.34; p < 0.001) for cystatin C, -0.17 (-0.27 to -0.07; p < 0.001) for serum calcium, 0.14 (0.03-0.24; p = 0.009) for serum phosphate, 0.24 (0.14-0.33; p < 0.001) for fibroblast growth factor-23, 0.13 (0.04-0.23; p = 0.007) for total parathyroid hormone, 0.17 (0.07-0.27; p < 0.001) for interleukin-6, and 0.12 (0.02-0.22; p = 0.02) for tumor necrosis factor-α. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced kidney function, calcium and phosphate metabolism disorders, and inflammation, independent of established CVD risk factors, may progress CAC among CKD patients.

Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Patients on Chronic Hemodialysis: The CRIC Study (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort).

We recently reported a linear association between higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and risk of mortality in hemodialysis patients when SBP is measured outside of the dialysis unit (out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP), despite there being a U-shaped association between SBP measured at the dialysis unit (dialysis-unit-SBP) with risk of mortality. Here, we explored the relationship between SBP with cardiovascular events, which has important treatment implications but has not been well elucidated. Among 383 hemodialysis participants enrolled in the prospective CRIC study (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort), multivariable splines and Cox models were used to study the association between SBP and adjudicated cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and peripheral artery disease), controlling for differences in demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and dialysis parameters. Dialysis-unit-SBP and out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP were modestly correlated (r=0.34; P<0.001). We noted a U-shaped association of dialysis-unit-SBP and risk of cardiovascular events, with the nadir risk between 140 and 170 mm Hg. In contrast, there was a linear stepwise association between out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP with risk of cardiovascular events. Participants with out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP ≥128 mm Hg (top 2 quartiles) had >2-fold increased risk of cardiovascular events compared with those with out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP ≤112 mm Hg (3rd SBP quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% confidence interval, 1.12-3.87] and fourth SBP quartile: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.76 [95% confidence interval, 1.42-5.33]). In conclusion, among hemodialysis patients, although there is a U-shaped (paradoxical) association of dialysis-unit-SBP and risk of cardiovascular disease, there is a linear association of out-of-dialysis-unit-SBP with risk of cardiovascular disease. Out-of-dialysis-unit blood pressure provides key information and may be an important therapeutic target.

Risk Factors for Heart Failure in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is common in patients with chronic kidney disease. We studied risk factors for incident heart failure among 3557 participants in the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Kidney function was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both, and 24-hour urine albumin excretion. During an average of 6.3 years of follow-up, 452 participants developed incident heart failure. After adjustment for age, sex, race, and clinical site, hazard ratio (95% CI) for heart failure associated with 1 SD lower creatinine-based eGFR was 1.67 (1.49, 1.89), 1 SD lower cystatin C-based-eGFR was 2.43 (2.10, 2.80), and 1 SD higher log-albuminuria was 1.65 (1.53, 1.78), all P<0.001. When all 3 kidney function measures were simultaneously included in the model, lower cystatin C-based eGFR and higher log-albuminuria remained significantly and directly associated with incidence of heart failure. After adjusting for eGFR, albuminuria, and other traditional cardiovascular risk factors, anemia (1.37, 95% CI 1.09, 1.72, P=0.006), insulin resistance (1.16, 95% CI 1.04, 1.28, P=0.006), hemoglobin A1c (1.27, 95% CI 1.14, 1.41, P<0.001), interleukin-6 (1.15, 95% CI 1.05, 1.25, P=0.002), and tumor necrosis factor-α (1.10, 95% CI 1.00, 1.21, P=0.05) were all significantly and directly associated with incidence of heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that cystatin C-based eGFR and albuminuria are better predictors for risk of heart failure compared to creatinine-based eGFR. Furthermore, anemia, insulin resistance, inflammation, and poor glycemic control are independent risk factors for the development of heart failure among patients with chronic kidney disease.

Associations of Conventional Echocardiographic Measures with Incident Heart Failure and Mortality: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Heart failure is the most frequent cardiac complication of CKD. Left ventricular hypertrophy is common and develops early in CKD, but studies have not adequately evaluated the association of left ventricular mass index with heart failure incidence among men and women with CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We evaluated echocardiograms of 2567 participants without self-reported heart failure enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study. Two-dimensional echocardiograms were performed at the year 1 study visit and interpreted at a central core laboratory. Left ventricular mass index was calculated using the linear method, indexed to height2.7, and analyzed using sex-specific quartiles. The primary outcomes of incident heart failure and all-cause mortality were adjudicated over a median of 6.6 (interquartile range, 5.7-7.6) years. RESULTS: Among 2567 participants, 45% were women, and 54% were nonwhite race; mean (SD) age was 59±11 years old, and mean eGFR was 44±17 ml/min per 1.73 m2. During a median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 262 participants developed heart failure, and 470 participants died. Compared with participants in the first quartile of left ventricular mass index, those in the highest quartile had higher rates of incident heart failure (hazard ratio, 3.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.96 to 8.02) and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 2.85), even after adjustment for B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin T, mineral metabolism markers, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors. Those in the lowest quartile of ejection fraction had higher rates of incident heart failure (hazard ratio, 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.94 to 4.67) but similar mortality rates (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 1.57) compared with those in the highest quartile. Diastolic dysfunction was not significantly associated with heart failure or death. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons with CKD and without history of cardiovascular disease, left ventricular mass index is strongly associated with incident heart failure, even after adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers.

Higher net acid excretion is associated with a lower risk of kidney disease progression in patients with diabetes.

Higher diet-dependent nonvolatile acid load is associated with faster chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, but most studies have used estimated acid load or measured only components of the gold standard, net acid excretion (NAE). Here we measured NAE as the sum of urine ammonium and titratable acidity in 24-hour urines from a random subset of 980 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. In multivariable models accounting for demographics, comorbidity and kidney function, higher NAE was significantly associated with lower serum bicarbonate (0.17 mEq/l lower serum bicarbonate per 10 mEq/day higher NAE), consistent with a larger acid load. Over a median of 6 years of follow-up, higher NAE was independently associated with a significantly lower risk of the composite of end-stage renal disease or halving of estimated glomerular filtration rate among diabetics (hazard ratio 0.88 per 10 mEq/day higher NAE), but not those without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.04 per 10 mEq/day higher NAE). For comparison, we estimated the nonvolatile acid load as net endogenous acid production using self-reported food frequency questionnaires from 2848 patients and dietary urine biomarkers from 3385 patients. Higher net endogenous acid production based on biomarkers (urea nitrogen and potassium) was modestly associated with faster CKD progression consistent with prior reports, but only among those without diabetes. Results from the food frequency questionnaires were not associated with CKD progression in any group. Thus, disparate results obtained from analyses of nonvolatile acid load directly measured as NAE and estimated from diet suggest a novel hypothesis that the risk of CKD progression related to low NAE or acid load may be due to diet-independent changes in acid production in diabetes.

Different components of blood pressure are associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease versus heart failure in advanced chronic kidney disease.

Blood pressure is a modifiable risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Among hemodialysis patients, there is a U-shaped association between blood pressure and risk of death. However, few studies have examined the association between blood pressure and CVD in patients with stage 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease. Here we studied 1795 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and not on dialysis. The association of systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), and pulse pressure with the risk of physician-adjudicated atherosclerotic CVD (stroke, myocardial infarction, or peripheral arterial disease) and heart failure was tested using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidity and medications. There was a significant association with higher SBP (adjusted hazard ratio 2.04 [95% confidence interval: 1.46-2.84]) for SBP over 140 vs under 120 mmHg, higher DBP (2.52 [1.54-4.11]) for DBP >90 mm Hg versus <80 mm Hg and higher pulse pressure (2.67 [1.82-3.92]) for pulse pressure >68 mm Hg versus <51 mm Hg with atherosclerotic CVD. For heart failure, there was a significant association with higher pulse pressure only (1.42 [1.05-1.92]) for pulse pressure >68 mm Hg versus <51 mmHg, but not for SBP or DBP. Thus, among participants with stage 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease, there was an independent association between higher SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure with the risk of atherosclerotic CVD, whereas only higher pulse pressure was independently associated with a greater risk of heart failure. Further trials are needed to determine whether aggressive reduction of blood pressure decreases the risk of CVD events in patients with stage 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease.

Proteinuria, but Not eGFR, Predicts Stroke Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease: Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, the impact of chronic kidney disease on cerebrovascular disease is less well understood. We hypothesized that renal function severity would be predictive of stroke risk, independent of other vascular risk factors. METHODS: The study population included 3939 subjects enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, a prospective observational cohort. Stroke events were reported by participants and adjudicated by 2 vascular neurologists. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare measures of baseline renal function with stroke events. Multivariable analysis was performed to adjust for key covariates. RESULTS: In 3939 subjects, 143 new stroke events (0.62 events per 100 person-years) occurred over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. Stroke risk was increased in subjects who had worse baseline measurements of renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate and total proteinuria or albuminuria). When adjusted for variables known to influence stroke risk, total proteinuria or albuminuria, but not estimated glomerular filtration rate, were associated with an increased risk of stroke. Treatment with blockers of the renin-angiotensin system did not decrease stroke risk in individuals with albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria and albuminuria are better predictors of stroke risk in patients with chronic kidney disease than estimated glomerular filtration rate. The impact of therapies targeting proteinuria/albuminuria in individuals with chronic kidney disease on stroke prevention warrants further investigation.

Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Score Is Associated With Incident Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Without Previously Diagnosed Heart Failure: Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is a risk factor for heart failure (HF). Patients with chronic kidney disease without diagnosed HF have an increased burden of symptoms characteristic of HF. It is not known whether these symptoms are associated with occurrence of new onset HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied the association of a modified Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire with newly identified cases of hospitalized HF among 3093 participants enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study who did not report HF at baseline. The annually updated Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score was categorized into quartiles (Q1-4) with the lower scores representing the worse symptoms. Multivariable-adjusted repeated measure logistic regression models were adjusted for demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors for HF, N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide level and left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Over a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.3±1.6 years, there were 211 new cases of HF hospitalizations. The risk of HF hospitalization increased with increasing symptom quartiles; 2.62, 1.85, 1.14, and 0.74 events per 100 person-years, respectively. The median number of annual Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire assessments per participant was 5 (interquartile range, 3-6). The annually updated Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score was independently associated with higher risk of incident HF hospitalization in multivariable-adjusted models (odds ratio, 3.30 [1.66-6.52]; P=0.001 for Q1 compared with Q4). CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms characteristic of HF are common in patients with chronic kidney disease and are associated with higher short-term risk for new hospitalization for HF, independent of level of kidney function, and other known HF risk factors.

The role of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system genes in the progression of chronic kidney disease: findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted single-marker, gene- and pathway-based analyses to examine the association between renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) variants and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study participants. METHODS: A total of 1523 white and 1490 black subjects were genotyped for 490 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 12 RAAS genes as part of the ITMAT-Broad-CARe array. CKD progression phenotypes included decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and the occurrence of a renal disease event, defined as incident end-stage renal disease or halving of eGFR from baseline. Mixed-effects models were used to examine SNP associations with eGFR decline, while Cox proportional hazards models tested SNP associations with renal events. Gene- and pathway-based analyses were conducted using the truncated product method. All analyses were stratified by race, and a Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust for multiple testing. RESULTS: Among white and black participants, eGFR declined an average of 1.2 and 2.3 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year, respectively, while renal events occurred in a respective 11.5 and 24.9% of participants. We identified strong gene- and pathway-based associations with CKD progression. The AGT and RENBP genes were consistently associated with risk of renal events in separate analyses of white and black participants (both P < 1.00 × 10(-6)). Driven by the significant gene-based findings, the entire RAAS pathway was also associated with renal events in both groups (both P < 1.00 × 10(-6)). No single-marker associations with CKD progression were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The current study provides strong evidence for a role of the RAAS in CKD progression.

Persistent high serum bicarbonate and the risk of heart failure in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD): A report from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study.

BACKGROUND: Serum bicarbonate varies over time in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, and this variability may portend poor cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this study was to conduct a time-updated longitudinal analysis to evaluate the association of serum bicarbonate with long-term clinical outcomes: heart failure, atherosclerotic events, renal events (halving of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or end-stage renal disease), and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Serum bicarbonate was measured annually, in 3586 participants with CKD, enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. Marginal structural models were created to allow for integration of all available bicarbonate measurements and proper adjustment for time-dependent confounding. During the 6 years follow-up, 512 participants developed congestive heart failure (26/1000 person-years) and 749 developed renal events (37/1000 person-years). The risk of heart failure and death was significantly higher for participants who maintained serum bicarbonate >26 mmol/L for the entire duration of follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 2.23, and HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.82, respectively) compared with participants who kept their bicarbonate 22 to 26 mmol/L, after adjusting for demographics, co-morbidities, medications including diuretics, eGFR, and proteinuria. Participants who maintained serum bicarbonate <22 mmol/L had almost a 2-fold increased risk of renal disease progression (HR 1.97; 95% CI, 1.50 to 2.57) compared with participants with bicarbonate 22 to 26 mmol/L. CONCLUSION: In this large CKD cohort, persistent serum bicarbonate >26 mmol/L was associated with increased risk of heart failure events and mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal range of serum bicarbonate in CKD to prevent adverse clinical outcomes.

Time-updated systolic blood pressure and the progression of chronic kidney disease: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous reports of the longitudinal association between achieved blood pressure (BP) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have not incorporated time-updated BP with appropriate covariate adjustment. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between baseline and time-updated systolic blood pressure (SBP) with CKD progression. DESIGN: Observational, prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00304148). SETTING: 7 U.S. clinical centers. PATIENTS: Patients in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (n = 3708) followed for a median of 5.7 years (25th to 75th percentile, 4.6 to 6.7 years). MEASUREMENTS: The mean of 3 seated SBP measurements made up the visit-specific SBP. Time-updated SBP was the mean of that and all previous visits. Outcomes were ESRD and the composite end point of ESRD or halving of the estimated glomerular filtration rate. Analyses investigating baseline and time-updated SBP used Cox proportional hazards models and marginal structural models, respectively. RESULTS: Systolic blood pressure was 130 mm Hg or greater at all visits in 19.2% of patients. The hazard ratio for ESRD among patients with SBP of 130 to 139 mm Hg, compared with SBP less than 120 mm Hg, was 1.46 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.88) using only baseline data and 2.37 (CI, 1.48 to 3.80) using time-updated data. Among patients with SBP of 140 mm Hg or greater, corresponding hazard ratios were 1.46 (CI, 1.18 to 1.88) and 3.37 (CI, 2.26 to 5.03) for models using only baseline data and those using time-updated data, respectively. LIMITATION: Blood pressure was measured once annually, and the cohort was not a random sample. CONCLUSION: Time-updated SBP greater than 130 mm Hg was more strongly associated with CKD progression than analyses based on baseline SBP. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Blood pressure and risk of all-cause mortality in advanced chronic kidney disease and hemodialysis: the chronic renal insufficiency cohort study.

Studies of hemodialysis patients have shown a U-shaped association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and mortality. These studies have largely relied on dialysis-unit SBP measures and have not evaluated whether this U-shape also exists in advanced chronic kidney disease, before starting hemodialysis. We determined the association between SBP and mortality at advanced chronic kidney disease and again after initiation of hemodialysis. This was a prospective study of Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort participants with advanced chronic kidney disease followed through initiation of hemodialysis. We studied the association between SBP and mortality when participants (1) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n=1705), (2) initiated hemodialysis and had dialysis-unit SBP measures (n=403), and (3) initiated hemodialysis and had out-of-dialysis-unit SBP measured at a Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study visit (n=326). Cox models were adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and dialysis parameters. A quadratic term for SBP was included to test for a U-shaped association. At advanced chronic kidney disease, there was no association between SBP and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.07] per every 10 mm Hg increase). Among participants who started hemodialysis, a U-shaped association between dialysis-unit SBP and mortality was observed. In contrast, there was a linear association between out-of-dialysis-unit SBP and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.40] per every 10 mm Hg increase). In conclusion, more efforts should be made to obtain out-of-dialysis-unit SBP, which may merit more consideration as a target for clinical management and in interventional trials.

Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and risk of cardiovascular disease and death in CKD: results from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is common and is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk. Currently, markers of renal tubular injury are not used routinely to describe kidney health and little is known about the risk of cardiovascular events and death associated with these biomarkers independent of glomerular filtration-based markers (such as serum creatinine or albuminuria). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study, CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,386 participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate of 20 to 70mL/min/1.73m(2) enrolled from June 2003 through August 2008. PREDICTOR: Urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) concentration. OUTCOMES: Adjudicated heart failure event, ischemic atherosclerotic event (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral artery disease), and death through March 2011. MEASUREMENTS: Urine NGAL measured at baseline with a 2-step assay using chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay technology on an ARCHITECT i2000SR (Abbott Laboratories). RESULTS: There were 428 heart failure events (during 16,383 person-years of follow-up), 361 ischemic atherosclerotic events (during 16,584 person-years of follow-up), and 522 deaths (during 18,214 person-years of follow-up). In Cox regression models adjusted for estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria, demographics, traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors, and cardiac medications, higher urine NGAL levels remained associated independently with ischemic atherosclerotic events (adjusted HR for the highest [>49.5ng/mL] vs lowest [≤6.9ng/mL] quintile, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.20-2.81]; HR per 0.1-unit increase in log urine NGAL, 1.012 [95% CI, 1.001-1.023]), but not heart failure events or deaths. LIMITATIONS: Urine NGAL was measured only once. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with chronic kidney disease, urine levels of NGAL, a marker of renal tubular injury, were associated independently with future ischemic atherosclerotic events, but not with heart failure events or deaths.

Urinary creatinine excretion, bioelectrical impedance analysis, and clinical outcomes in patients with CKD: the CRIC study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Previous studies in chronic disease states have demonstrated an association between lower urinary creatinine excretion (UCr) and increased mortality, a finding presumed to reflect the effect of low muscle mass on clinical outcomes. Little is known about the relationship between UCr and other measures of body composition in terms of the ability to predict outcomes of interest. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Using data from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), the relationship between UCr, fat free mass (FFM) as estimated by bioelectrical impedance analysis, and (in a subpopulation) whole-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry assessment of appendicular lean mass were characterized. The associations of UCr and FFM with mortality and ESRD were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 3604 CRIC participants (91% of the full CRIC cohort) with both a baseline UCr and FFM measurement were included; of these, 232 had contemporaneous dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements. Participants were recruited between July 2003 and March 2007. UCr and FFM were modestly correlated (rho=0.50; P<0.001), while FFM and appendicular lean mass were highly correlated (rho=0.91; P<0.001). Higher urinary urea nitrogen, black race, younger age, and lower serum cystatin C level were all significantly associated with higher UCr. Over a median (interquartile range) of 4.2 (3.1-5.0) years of follow-up, 336 (9.3%) participants died and 510 (14.2%) reached ESRD. Lower UCr was associated with death and ESRD even after adjustment for FFM (adjusted hazard ratio for death per 1 SD higher level of UCr, 0.63 [95% confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.72]; adjusted hazard ratio for ESRD per 1 SD higher level of UCr, 0.70 [95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 0.75]). CONCLUSIONS: Among a cohort of individuals with CKD, lower UCr is associated with death and ESRD independent of FFM as assessed by bioelectrical impedance analysis.

Arterial stiffness, central pressures, and incident hospitalized heart failure in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is associated with an increased risk of heart failure (HF). We aimed to evaluate the role of large artery stiffness, brachial, and central blood pressure as predictors of incident hospitalized HF in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC), a multiethnic, multicenter prospective observational study of patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2602 participants who were free of HF at baseline. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV; the gold standard index of large artery stiffness), brachial, and central pressures (estimated via radial tonometry and a generalized transfer function) were assessed at baseline. Participants were prospectively followed up to assess the development of new-onset hospitalized HF. During 3.5 years of follow-up, 154 participants had a first hospital admission for HF. CF-PWV was a significant independent predictor of incident hospitalized HF. When compared with the lowest tertile, the hazard ratios among subjects in the middle and top CF-PWV tertiles were 2.33 (95% confidence interval, 1.37-3.97; P=0.002) and 5.24 (95% confidence interval, 3.22-8.53; P<0.0001), respectively. After adjustment for multiple confounders, the hazard ratios for the middle and top CF-PWV tertiles were 1.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-4.13; P=0.079) and 3.01 (95% confidence interval, 1.45-6.26; P=0.003), respectively. Brachial systolic and pulse pressure were also independently associated with incident hospitalized HF, whereas central pressures were less consistently associated with this end point. The association between CF-PWV and incident HF persisted after adjustment for systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Large artery stiffness is an independent predictor of incident HF in chronic kidney disease, an association with strong biological plausibility given the known effects of large artery stiffening of left ventricular pulsatile load.

Blood pressure variability of two ambulatory blood pressure monitors.

OBJECTIVE: There are no data on the evaluation of blood pressure (BP) variability comparing two ambulatory blood pressure monitoring monitors worn at the same time. Hence, this study was carried out to compare variability of BP in healthy untreated adults using two ambulatory BP monitors worn at the same time over an 8-h period. METHODS: An Accutorr device was used to measure office BP in the dominant and nondominant arms of 24 participants.Simultaneous 8-h BP and heart rate data were measured in 24 untreated adult volunteers by Mobil-O-Graph (worn for an additional 16 h after removing the Spacelabs monitor) and Spacelabs with both random (N=12) and nonrandom (N=12) assignment of each device to the dominant arm. Average real variability (ARV), SD, coefficient of variation, and variation independent of mean were calculated for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure (PP). RESULTS: Whether the Mobil-O-Graph was applied to the dominant or the nondominant arm, the ARV of mean systolic (P=0.003 nonrandomized; P=0.010 randomized) and PP (P=0.009 nonrandomized; P=0.005 randomized) remained significantly higher than the Spacelabs device, whereas the ARV of the mean arterial pressure was not significantly different. The average BP readings and ARVs for systolic blood pressure and PP obtained by the Mobil-O-Graph were considerably higher for the daytime than the night-time. CONCLUSION: Given the emerging interest in the effect of BP variability on health outcomes, the accuracy of its measurement is important. Our study raises concerns about the accuracy of pooling international ambulatory blood pressure monitoring variability data using different devices.