Impact of urbanization on exposure to extreme warming in megacities.

Cities warm up due to two main factors: global climate change and urbanization-induced warming (so-called, urban heat island effect). In the projection of future climate, coarse-resolution global climate models are not suitable for looking into the heterogeneous urban surface and their changes. On the other hand, regional climate models, which are capable of looking into cities in detail, have never been used to investigate the global urban climate. Here we show that urbanization significantly increases exposure to extreme warming for megacity residents. We reflect urbanization between the 2010s and the 2050s into our model by considering the spatiotemporal change in urban surface (buildings and anthropogenic heat emissions) induced by urban population and economic growth. We found that in the 2050s, under the worst-case scenario, 78 percent of megacity residents will be exposed to 2.5 °Cwarming, much higher than the projection of 65 percent when urban warming is left out. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for local urbanization in future global urban climate projection.

Global 1-km present and future hourly anthropogenic heat flux.

Numerical weather prediction models are progressively used to downscale future climate in cities at increasing spatial resolutions. Boundary conditions representing rapidly growing urban areas are imperative to more plausible future predictions. In this work, 1-km global anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets of the present and future are constructed. To improve present AHE maps, 30 arc-second VIIRS satellite imagery outputs such as nighttime lights and night-fires were incorporated along with the LandScanTM population dataset. A futuristic scenario of AHE was also developed while considering pathways of radiative forcing (i.e. representative concentration pathways), pathways of social conditions (i.e. shared socio-economic pathways), a 1-km future urbanization probability map, and a model to estimate changes in population distribution. The new dataset highlights two distinct features; (1) a more spatially-heterogeneous representation of AHE is captured compared with other recent datasets, and (2) consideration of future urban sprawls and climate change in futuristic AHE maps. Significant increases in projected AHE for multiple cities under a worst-case scenario strengthen the need for further assessment of futuristic AHE.

Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity.

Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity's population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under "compact city" and "business-as-usual" scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.

High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model.

As urban population is forecast to exceed 60% of the world's population by 2050, urban growth can be expected. However, research on spatial projections of urban growth at a global scale are limited. We constructed a framework to project global urban growth based on the SLEUTH urban growth model and a database with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds containing urban growth probabilities from 2020 to 2050. Using the historical distribution of the global population from LandScanTM as a proxy for urban land cover, the SLEUTH model was calibrated for the period from 2000 to 2013. This model simulates urban growth using two layers of 50 arc-minutes grids encompassing global urban regions. While varying growth rates are observed in each urban area, the global urban cover is forecast to reach 1.7 × 106 km2 by 2050, which is approximately 1.4 times that of the year 2012. A global urban growth database is essential for future environmental planning and assessments, as well as numerical investigations of future urban climates.

Outdoor thermal physiology along human pathways: a study using a wearable measurement system.

An outdoor summer study on thermal physiology along subjects' pathways was conducted in a Japanese city using a unique wearable measurement system that measures all the relevant thermal variables: ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed (U) and short/long-wave radiation (S and L), along with some physio-psychological parameters: skin temperature (T skin), pulse rate, subjective thermal sensation and state of body motion. U, S and L were measured using a globe anemo-radiometer adapted use with pedestrian subjects. The subjects were 26 healthy Japanese adults (14 males, 12 females) ranging from 23 to 74 years in age. Each subject wore a set of instruments that recorded individual microclimate and physiological responses along a designated pedestrian route that traversed various urban textures. The subjects experienced varying thermal environments that could not be represented by fixed-point routine observational data. S fluctuated significantly reflecting the mixture of sunlit/shade distributions within complex urban morphology. U was generally low within urban canyons due to drag by urban obstacles such as buildings but the subjects' movements enhanced convective heat exchanges with the atmosphere, leading to a drop in T skin. The amount of sweating increased as standard effective temperature (SET*) increased. A clear dependence of sweating on gender and body size was found; males sweated more than females; overweight subjects sweated more than standard/underweight subjects. T skin had a linear relationship with SET* and a similarly clear dependence on gender and body size differences. T skin of the higher-sweating groups was lower than that of the lower-sweating groups, reflecting differences in evaporative cooling by perspiration.