District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

The Gambia Trachomatous Trichiasis Surveys: Results from Five Evaluation Units Confirm Attainment of Trachoma Elimination Thresholds.

INTRODUCTION: Trichiasis is present when in-turned eyelashes touch the eyeball. It may result in permanent vision loss. Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is caused by multiple rounds of inflammation associated with conjunctival Chlamydia trachomatis infection. Surveys have been designed to estimate the prevalence of TT in evaluation units (EUs) of trachoma-endemic countries in order to help develop appropriate programme-level plans. In this study, TT-only surveys were conducted in five EUs of The Gambia to determine whether further intensive programmatic action was required. METHODS: Two-stage cluster sampling was used to select 27 villages per EU and ~25 households per village. Graders assessed the TT status of individuals aged ≥15 years in each selected household, including the presence or absence of conjunctival scarring in those with TT. RESULTS: From February to March 2019, 11595 people aged ≥15 years were examined. A total of 34 cases of TT were identified. All five EUs had an age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system <0.2%. Three of five EUs had a prevalence of 0.0%. CONCLUSION: Using these and other previously collected data, in 2021, The Gambia was validated as having achieved national elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. Trachoma is still present in the population, but as its prevalence is low, it is unlikely that today's youth will experience the exposure to C. trachomatis required to precipitate TT. The Gambia demonstrates that with political will and consistent application of human and financial resources, trachoma can be eliminated as a public health problem.

The Gambia has eliminated trachoma as a public health problem: Challenges and successes.

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness in the world and has been known to be a major public health problem in The Gambia for over 60 years. Nationwide blindness surveys, including trachoma, in 1986 and 1996 provided the foundation for a comprehensive plan to implement a trachoma elimination strategy. Impact and pre-validation surveillance surveys in 2011-13 demonstrated that active trachoma was below WHO threshold for elimination but trichiasis remained a public health problem. Trichiasis-only surveys in 2019 demonstrated that trichiasis was below WHO thresholds for elimination and in 2020 the Government of The Gambia completed and submitted its dossier for validation of elimination as a public health problem. Challenges that The Gambia faced on the pathway to elimination included effective use of data for decision making, poor trichiasis surgical outcomes, lack of access to antibiotic treatment for low prevalence districts, high attrition of ophthalmic nurses trained as trichiasis surgeons, unexpected active trachoma in madrassas, the misalignment of elimination of active trachoma and trichiasis, trichiasis in urban settings, and maintaining the quality of surgery post-elimination when trichiasis cases are rare. Elimination of trachoma does not end with the submission of an elimination dossier; The Gambia will need to sustain monitoring and support over the coming years.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

Cross-Sectional Surveys of the Prevalence of Follicular Trachoma and Trichiasis in The Gambia: Has Elimination Been Reached?

BACKGROUND: The Gambia's National Eye Health Programme has made a concerted effort to reduce the prevalence of trachoma. The present study had two objectives. The first was to conduct surveillance following mass drug administrations to determine whether The Gambia has reached the World Health Organization's (WHO) criteria for trachoma elimination, namely a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) of less than 5% in children aged 1 to 9 years. The second was to determine the prevalence of trichiasis (TT) cases unknown to the programme and evaluate whether these meet the WHO criteria of less than 0.1% in the total population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted between 2011 and 2013 to determine the prevalence of TF and TT in each of nine surveillance zones. Each zone was of similar size, with a population of 60,000 to 90,000, once urban settlements were excluded. Trachoma grading was carried out according to the WHO's simplified trachoma grading system. The prevalence of TF in children aged 1 to 9 years was less than 5% in each surveillance zone at each of the three surveys. The prevalence of TT cases varied by zone from 0 to 1.7% of adults greater than 14 years while the prevalence of TT cases unknown to the country's National Eye Health Programme was estimated at 0.15% total population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The Gambia has reached the elimination threshold for TF in children. Further work is needed to bring the number of unknown TT cases below the elimination threshold.