ABSTRACT
Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.
Subject(s)
Disease Eradication , Forecasting , Public Health , Trachoma , Trachoma/epidemiology , Trachoma/prevention & control , Humans , Child, Preschool , Infant , Child , Disease Eradication/methods , Prevalence , Models, Statistical , Mass Drug Administration , World Health Organization , Global Health , Male , FemaleABSTRACT
Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness in the world and has been known to be a major public health problem in The Gambia for over 60 years. Nationwide blindness surveys, including trachoma, in 1986 and 1996 provided the foundation for a comprehensive plan to implement a trachoma elimination strategy. Impact and pre-validation surveillance surveys in 2011-13 demonstrated that active trachoma was below WHO threshold for elimination but trichiasis remained a public health problem. Trichiasis-only surveys in 2019 demonstrated that trichiasis was below WHO thresholds for elimination and in 2020 the Government of The Gambia completed and submitted its dossier for validation of elimination as a public health problem. Challenges that The Gambia faced on the pathway to elimination included effective use of data for decision making, poor trichiasis surgical outcomes, lack of access to antibiotic treatment for low prevalence districts, high attrition of ophthalmic nurses trained as trichiasis surgeons, unexpected active trachoma in madrassas, the misalignment of elimination of active trachoma and trichiasis, trichiasis in urban settings, and maintaining the quality of surgery post-elimination when trichiasis cases are rare. Elimination of trachoma does not end with the submission of an elimination dossier; The Gambia will need to sustain monitoring and support over the coming years.
