Quantitative decision making for investment in global health intervention trials: Case study of the NEWBORN study on emollient therapy in preterm infants in Kenya.

Background: Partners from an NGO, academia, industry and government applied a tool originating in the private sector - Quantitative Decision Making (QDM) - to rigorously assess whether to invest in testing a global health intervention. The proposed NEWBORN study was designed to assess whether topical emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil in infants with very low birthweight <1500 g in Kenya would result in a significant reduction in neonatal mortality compared to standard of care. Methods: The QDM process consisted of prior elicitation, modelling of prior distributions, and simulations to assess Probability of Success (PoS) via assurance calculations. Expert opinion was elicited on the probability that emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil will have any measurable benefit on neonatal mortality based on available evidence. The distribution of effect sizes was modelled and trial data simulated using Statistical Analysis System to obtain the overall assurance which represents the PoS for the planned study. A decision-making framework was then applied to characterise the ability of the study to meet pre-selected decision-making endpoints. Results: There was a 47% chance of a positive outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality of ≥15%), a 45% chance of a negative outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality <10%), and an 8% chance of ending in the consider zone (ie, a mortality reduction of 10 to <15%) for infants <1500 g. Conclusions: QDM is a novel tool from industry which has utility for prioritisation of investments in global health, complementing existing tools [eg, Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative]. Results from application of QDM to the NEWBORN study suggests that it has a high probability of producing clear results. Findings encourage future formation of public-private partnerships for health.

Improving provision of family planning among pastoralists in Kenya: Perspectives from health care providers, community and religious leaders.

There exist significant inequities in access to family planning (FP) in Kenya, particularly for nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralists. Health care providers (HCP), are key in delivering FP services. Community leaders and religious leaders are also key influencers in women's decisions to use FP. We found limited research exploring the perspectives of both HCPs and these local leaders in this context. We conducted semi-structured interviews with HCPs (n=4) working in facilities in Wajir and Mandera, and community leaders (n=4) and religious leaders (n=4) from the nomadic and semi-nomadic populations the facilities serve. We conducted deductive and inductive thematic analysis. Three overarching themes emerged: perception of FP as a health priority, explanations for low FP use, and recommendations to improve access. Four overlapping sub-themes explained low FP use: desire for large families, tension in FP decision-making, religion and culture, and fears about FP. Providers were from different socio-demographic backgrounds to the communities they served, who faced structural marginalisation from health and other services. Programmes to improve FP access should be delivered alongside interventions targeting the immediate health concerns of pastoralist communities, incorporating structural changes. HCPs that are aware of religious and cultural reasons for non-use, play a key role in improving access.

RED for PMTCT: an adaptation of immunization's Reaching Every District approach increases coverage, access, and utilization of PMTCT care in Bondo District, Kenya.

Gaps exist in coverage, early access, and utilization of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services in Kenya. The Maternal and Child Health Integrated Program, led by Jhpiego, piloted an adaptation of immunization's Reaching Every District (RED) approach in Bondo District as a way of improving PMTCT care. Routine district-level monthly summary service delivery pre- and post-implementation data were analyzed. Marked improvements resulted in the proportion of HIV-infected and non-infected pregnant women completing four focused prenatal care visits, from 25% to 41%, and the proportion of HIV-exposed infants (HEIs) tested at six weeks, from 27% to 78% (P<0.001). The proportion of HEIs tested for HIV infection at 12months was 52%, while 77% of HEIs were issued antiretroviral prophylaxis by the end of the pilot. Implementation of RED for PMTCT demonstrated that PMTCT services can be delivered effectively in the context of the existing community strategy and resulted in increased coverage, access, and utilization of care for HIV-positive pregnant women and their children.

Using Young Mothers' Clubs to Improve Knowledge of Postpartum Hemorrhage and Family Planning in Informal Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

Women living in Nairobi's informal settlements face a higher risk of maternal death than those living elsewhere in the country, and have limited knowledge of actions they can take to improve their chances of survival during pregnancy and childbirth. As one strategy to reach this high risk group, Jhpiego has implemented young mothers' clubs (YMCs). These clubs comprise mothers aged 18-30 who come together on a weekly basis to share experiences and solutions to their challenges while receiving health education from health facility staff and community health workers (CHWs). The aim of this study was to assess whether the YMC strategy could be used to improve participants' knowledge of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), positive behavior around childbirth, and family planning. Participants in nine YMCs (n = 193) across four informal settlements were interviewed to assess their knowledge of safe motherhood topics before and after a series of eight health education sessions. Data were analyzed with the McNemar test to determine significance of change in knowledge pre- and post-intervention. The largest improvements were observed in knowledge about what to include in a birth plan, with correct responses increasing from 32 to 73% (p < 0.001), 58-93% (p < 0.001), 36-66% (p < 0.001), 58-85% (p < 0.001), and 64-88% (p < 0.001) for identifying a birth companion, budget, skilled birth attendant, emergency supplies, and place of birth, respectively. Less substantial improvements were observed in knowledge of danger signs of PPH (up 10% from 77%, p = 0.003). Although knowledge of actions to take in the event of bleeding after delivery did significantly improve, final knowledge scores remained low--knowledge to urinate increased from 14 to 28% (p < 0.001) and to breastfeed from 12 to 24% (p = 0.005). Even though the vast majority of respondents (84%) knew before the intervention that a woman should space pregnancy by at least 2 years after delivery, there was an increase to 94% after the sessions (p = 0.008). Overall, participants demonstrated significant improvements in knowledge of safe motherhood and family planning topics, suggesting that the materials and methods used were generally effective for improving knowledge among this high risk group.