Do improved pollination services outweigh farm-economic disadvantages of working in small-structured agricultural landscapes? - Development and application of a bio-economic model.

Increases in the size of agricultural fields, the loss of permanent green field edges and other semi-natural habitats have accompanied the intensification of agriculture, and are still ongoing. From a farm economic perspective, an increase in field size increases efficiency mainly due to cost savings. However, recent evidence suggests that increases in field size might lead to the loss of ecosystem services provided by farmland biodiversity, but this trade-off is rarely considered. Here, we aim to quantify the economic and ecological effects of these changes by developing a bio-economic simulation-based land-use modelling framework based on spatially explicit data from an agricultural region in Germany. The results show a substantial decrease in flower visitation in oilseed rape when field sizes increase and permanent green edges are lost. This also leads to a decrease in pollination from wild bees and affects yields and farm economics. However, this loss in agricultural gross margin is overcompensated by economic gains of field enlargement. We conclude that further, more comprehensive evaluations are required and suggest that maintaining fine-grained agricultural landscapes with permanent field margins in the long term may require incentives to farmers, as well as innovations that allow to farm small fields at lower costs.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.