Improving the representation of forests in hydrological models.

Forests play a critical role in the hydrologic cycle, impacting the surface and groundwater dynamics of watersheds through transpiration, interception, shading, and modification of the atmospheric boundary layer. It is therefore critical that forest dynamics are adequately represented in watershed models, such as the widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT's default parameterization generally produces unrealistic forest growth predictions, which we address here through an improved representation of forest dynamics using species-specific re-parameterizations. We applied this methodology to the two dominant pine species in the southeastern U.S., loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) and slash pine (Pinus elliotti). Specifically, we replaced unrealistic parameter values related to tree growth with physically meaningful parameters derived from publicly available remote-sensing products, field measurements, published literature, and expert knowledge. Outputs of the default and re-parameterized models were compared at four pine plantation sites across a range of management, soil, and climate conditions. Results were validated against MODIS-derived leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET), as well as field observations of total biomass. The re-parameterized model outperformed the default model in simulating LAI, biomass accumulation, and ET at all sites. The two parametrizations also resulted in substantially different mean annual water budgets for all sites, with reductions in water yield ranging from 13 to 45% under the new parameterization, highlighting the importance of properly parameterizing forest dynamics in watershed models. Importantly, our re-parameterization methodology does not require alteration to the SWAT code, allowing it to be readily adapted and applied in ongoing and future watershed modeling studies.

Connecting changes in Euphrates River flow to hydropattern of the Western Mesopotamian Marshes.

The Mesopotamian Marshlands are the largest wetland system in the Middle East. Historically, these marshes served as the floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and they are currently connected to these rivers via surface water feeder canals. Historically, the Mesopotamian marshes received consistent flood pulses during the spring season from March to May. In recent decades, however, several large dams have been constructed in the Tigris and Euphrates basins for irrigation purposes and power generation, severely altering the flow regime, which along with other direct anthropogenic activities, has severely degraded the marsh ecosystem. This work quantifies changes in the riverine flow regime and how they have affected the hydro-pattern of the western Mesopotamian marshes (focusing on the western Al-Hammar marsh) and describes the role of hydrological drivers that are important for marsh restoration. The total area of the Al-Hammar marshes has been reduced from an average of 2800 km2 before 1970 to a minimum of 240 km2 in recent decades, concomitant with reductions in annual average Euphrates River flow (at Hit) from 967 to 602 m3/s and marked flow regime alteration. While climate warming and reduced precipitation were observed in the basin, changes in the fundamental precipitation-flow relationship implicate infrastructural changes (upstream dams) as the primary reason for these changes. This analysis quantified how flow variability under historic and contemporary conditions have affected wetland area and other hydro-pattern characteristics and suggests that at an annual average of least 70 m3/s of water deliveries to the western Mesopotamian marsh are required to restore 1000 km2 of wetland area. Our hope is that this focus on the river-marsh connection will help inform predictive models and scenario analysis for restoration of this unique social-ecological system.

Venous Thromboembolism at High Altitude: Our Approach to Patients at Risk.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is a prevalent disorder that confers substantial cardiovascular morbidity and, in serious cases, death. VTE has a complex and incompletely understood etiopathogenesis with genetic, acquired, and environmental risk factors. As the focus of this review, one environmental risk factor, which may interact with other risk factors such as hereditary and/or acquired thrombophilias, is travel to high altitude (HA), although current evidence is limited. As guidelines do not directly address this topic, we will discuss the epidemiology of HA-VTE, review the putative mechanisms for thrombosis at HA, and discuss our clinical approach to both risk stratification and counseling, including specific pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic recommendations for patients with elevated VTE risk before they travel to HA.

A casualty of climate change? Loss of freshwater forest islands on Florida's Gulf Coast.

Sea level rise elicits short- and long-term changes in coastal plant communities by altering the physical conditions that affect ecosystem processes and species distributions. While the effects of sea level rise on salt marshes and mangroves are well studied, we focus on its effects on coastal islands of freshwater forest in Florida's Big Bend region, extending a dataset initiated in 1992. In 2014-2015, we evaluated tree survival, regeneration, and understory composition in 13 previously established plots located along a tidal creek; 10 plots are on forest islands surrounded by salt marsh, and three are in continuous forest. Earlier studies found that salt stress from increased tidal flooding prevented tree regeneration in frequently flooded forest islands. Between 1992 and 2014, tidal flooding of forest islands increased by 22%-117%, corresponding with declines in tree species richness, regeneration, and survival of the dominant tree species, Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm) and Juniperus virginiana (southern red cedar). Rates of S. palmetto and J. virginiana mortality increased nonlinearly over time on the six most frequently flooded islands, while salt marsh herbs and shrubs replaced forest understory vegetation along a tidal flooding gradient. Frequencies of tidal flooding, rates of tree mortality, and understory composition in continuous forest stands remained relatively stable, but tree regeneration substantially declined. Long-term trends identified in this study demonstrate the effect of sea level rise on spatial and temporal community reassembly trajectories that are dynamically re-shaping the unique coastal landscape of the Big Bend.

Freshwater Detention by Oyster Reefs: Quantifying a Keystone Ecosystem Service.

Oyster reefs provide myriad ecosystem services, including water quality improvement, fisheries and other faunal support, shoreline protection from erosion and storm surge, and economic productivity. However, their role in directing flow during non-storm conditions has been largely neglected. In regions where oyster reefs form near the mouth of estuarine rivers, they likely alter ocean-estuary exchange by acting as fresh water "dams". We hypothesize that these reefs have the potential to detain fresh water and influence salinity over extensive areas, thus providing a "keystone" ecosystem service by supporting estuarine functions that rely on the maintenance of estuarine (i.e., brackish) conditions in the near-shore environment. In this work, we investigated the effects of shore-parallel reefs on estuarine salinity using field data and hydrodynamic modeling in a degraded reef complex in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Results suggested that freshwater detention by long linear chains of oyster reefs plays an important role in modulating salinities, not only in the oysters' local environment, but over extensive estuarine areas (tens of square kilometers). Field data confirmed the presence of salinity differences between landward and seaward sides of the reef, with long-term mean salinity differences of >30% between sides. Modeled results expanded experimental findings by illustrating how oyster reefs affect the lateral and offshore extent of freshwater influence. In general, the effects of simulated reefs were most pronounced when they were highest in elevation, without gaps, and when riverine discharge was low. Taken together, these results describe a poorly documented ecosystem service provided by oyster reefs; provide an estimate of the magnitude and spatial extent of this service; and offer quantitative information to help guide future oyster reef restoration.

Apixaban for the Secondary Prevention of Thrombosis Among Patients With Antiphospholipid Syndrome: Study Rationale and Design (ASTRO-APS).

BACKGROUND: Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is an acquired thrombophilia characterized by thrombosis, pregnancy morbidity, and the presence of characteristic antibodies. Current therapy for patients having APS with a history of thrombosis necessitates anticoagulation with the vitamin K antagonist warfarin, a challenging drug to manage. Apixaban, approved for the treatment and prevention of venous thrombosis with a low rate of bleeding observed, has never been studied among patients with APS. AIMS AND METHODS: We report study rationale and design of Apixaban for the Secondary Prevention of Thrombosis Among Patients With Antiphospholipid Syndrome (ASTRO-APS), a prospective randomized open-label blinded event pilot study that will randomize patients with a clinical diagnosis of APS receiving therapeutic anticoagulation to either adjusted-dose warfarin or apixaban 2.5 mg twice a day. We aim to report our ability to identify, recruit, randomize, and retain patients with APS randomized to apixaban compared with warfarin. We will report clinically important outcomes of thrombosis and bleeding. All clinical outcomes will be adjudicated by a panel blinded to the treatment arm. A unique aspect of this study is the enrollment of patients with an established clinical diagnosis of APS. Also unique is our use of electronic medical record interrogation techniques to identify patients who would likely meet our inclusion criteria and use of an electronic portal for follow-up visit data capture. CONCLUSION: ASTRO-APS will be the largest prospective study to date comparing a direct oral anticoagulant with warfarin among patients with APS for the secondary prevention of thrombosis. Our inclusion criteria assure that outcomes obtained will be clinically applicable to the routine management of patients with APS receiving indefinite anticoagulation.

Groundwater salinity in a floodplain forest impacted by saltwater intrusion.

Coastal wetlands occupy a delicate position at the intersection of fresh and saline waters. Changing climate and watershed hydrology can lead to saltwater intrusion into historically freshwater systems, causing plant mortality and loss of freshwater habitat. Understanding the hydrological functioning of tidally influenced floodplain forests is essential for advancing ecosystem protection and restoration goals, however finding direct relationships between hydrological inputs and floodplain hydrology is complicated by interactions between surface water, groundwater, and atmospheric fluxes in variably saturated soils with heterogeneous vegetation and topography. Thus, an alternative method for identifying common trends and causal factors is required. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a time series dimension reduction technique, models temporal variation in observed data as linear combinations of common trends, which represent unexplained common variability, and explanatory variables. DFA was applied to model shallow groundwater salinity in the forested floodplain wetlands of the Loxahatchee River (Florida, USA), where altered watershed hydrology has led to changing hydroperiod and salinity regimes and undesired vegetative changes. Long-term, high-resolution groundwater salinity datasets revealed dynamics over seasonal and yearly time periods as well as over tidal cycles and storm events. DFA identified shared trends among salinity time series and a full dynamic factor model simulated observed series well (overall coefficient of efficiency, Ceff=0.85; 0.52≤Ceff≤0.99). A reduced multilinear model based solely on explanatory variables identified in the DFA had fair to good results (Ceff=0.58; 0.38≤Ceff≤0.75) and may be used to assess the effects of restoration and management scenarios on shallow groundwater salinity in the Loxahatchee River floodplain.

Beyond precipitation: physiographic gradients dictate the relative importance of environmental drivers on Savanna vegetation.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to managing landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate and land use changes will affect regional vegetation patterns. This study aimed to improve our understanding of the role, magnitude and spatial distribution of the key environmental factors driving vegetation change in southern African savanna, and how they vary across physiographic gradients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate times series dimension reduction technique to ten years of monthly remote sensing data (MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) and a suite of environmental covariates: precipitation, mean and maximum temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, fire and potential evapotranspiration. Monthly NDVI was described by cyclic seasonal variation with distinct spatiotemporal patterns in different physiographic regions. Results support existing work emphasizing the importance of precipitation, soil moisture and fire on NDVI, but also reveal overlooked effects of temperature and evapotranspiration, particularly in regions with higher mean annual precipitation. Critically, spatial distributions of the weights of environmental covariates point to a transition in the importance of precipitation and soil moisture (strongest in grass-dominated regions with precipitation<750 mm) to fire, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (strongest in tree-dominated regions with precipitation>950 mm). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We quantified the combined spatiotemporal effects of an available suite of environmental drivers on NDVI across a large and diverse savanna region. The analysis supports known drivers of savanna vegetation but also uncovers important roles of temperature and evapotranspiration. Results highlight the utility of applying the DFA approach to remote sensing products for regional analyses of landscape change in the context of global environmental change. With the dramatic increase in global change research, this methodology augurs well for further development and application of spatially explicit time series modeling to studies at the intersection of ecology and remote sensing.