Monitoring of land use/land cover changes using GIS and CA-Markov modeling techniques: a study in Northern Turkey.

The purpose of this study, covering the northern Ulus district of Turkey, was to analyze the forest and land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the past period from 2000 to 2020, and to predict the possible changes in 2030 and 2040, using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) together with the CA-Markov model. The maximum likelihood classified (MLC) technique was used to produce LULC maps, using 2000 and 2010 Landsat (ETM +) and 2020 Landsat (OLI) images based on existing stand-type maps as reference. Using the historical data from the generated LULC maps, the LULC changes for 2030-2040 were predicted via the CA-Markov hybrid model. The reliability of the model was verified by overlapping the 2020 LULC map with the 2020 LULC model (predicted) map. The overall accuracy was found to be 80.90%, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.74. The total forest area (coniferous + broad-leaved + mixed forest) grew by 10,656.4 ha (15.4%) in the 2000-2020 period. Examination of the types within the Forest Class revealed that the coniferous forest area had grown by 5.9% in the period 2000-2010, whereas it had decreased by 4.7% in the period 2010-2020. The broad-leaved forest area had grown by 1.2% and 3.1%, respectively, between 2000 and 2010 and 2010 and 2020. The mixed forest area had been reduced by 7.1% in the period 2000-2010 but had grown by 1.7% in the 2010-2020 period. In the Non-Forest Class, although the water area had increased in the 2000-2020 period, agricultural land and settlement areas had decreased by 11,553.9 ha (32.3%) and 34.6 ha (0.5%), respectively. According to the 2020-2040 LULC simulation results, it was predicted that there would be 3.8% and 26.4% growth in the total forest and water surface areas and 13.9% and 5.3% reduction in the agricultural and settlement areas, respectively. Using the LULC simulation to separate the Forest Class into coniferous, broad-leaved, and mixed forest categories and subsequently examining the individual changes can be of great help to forest planners and managers in decision-making and strategy development.

Changes in forest areas and land cover and their causes using intensity analysis: the case of Alabarda forest planning unit.

The examination of land cover change, as the main driving force of global climate change, and the determination of its economic, ecological, and social effects are necessary for making the right decisions in sustainable development, planning, and management. This study, conducted in the local forest areas of Alabarda, located in Tavsanli District (Turkey), examined temporal and spatial changes in land cover using an intensity analysis consisting of three levels: interval, category, and transition. Using the three maps of 1994, 2004, and 2015, we analyzed the land use changes during two time intervals (1993-2004 and 2004-2015) in the area for six categories, including three for forest areas (Productive, Degraded, and Treeless) and three for non-forest areas (Others, e.g., mine sites, roads, wetlands; Settlement; and Cultivated). The interval level results of the analysis showed that the land change rate was more rapid in the 2004-2015 time interval compared to 1993-2004. According to the category level results, in both time intervals, the Productive category was dormant in terms of loss and gain, whereas the Cultivated category was active. The level showing transitions between categories indicated that the Productive category targeted the Treeless and Cultivated losses in the first time interval and targeted the Degraded losses most intensely in the second time interval. The successful forestry activities (afforestation and rehabilitation) carried out by the government as of 2006 and the ongoing migration of the population from the region have had a joint effect on the increase of forest areas and the transformation of Degraded forest areas into Productive ones in the study area.