Reperfusion therapies in patients with acute ischaemic stroke and atrial fibrillation: data on safety and effectiveness from a multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular therapy (EVT) are currently considered best practices in acute stroke patients. Data regarding the efficacy and safety of reperfusion therapies in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting as regards haemorrhagic transformation, mortality, and functional outcome. This study sought to investigate for any differences, in terms of safety and effectiveness, between AF patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) treated and untreated with reperfusion therapies. METHODS: Data from two multicenter cohort studies (RAF and RAF-NOACs) on consecutive patients with AF and AIS were analyzed to compare patients treated and not treated with reperfusion therapies (IVT and/or EVT). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for outcome events: 90-day good functional outcome and mortality. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis compared treated and untreated patients. RESULTS: Overall, 441 (25.4%) were included in the reperfusion-treated group and 1,295 (74.6%) in the untreated group. The multivariable model suggested that reperfusion therapies were significantly associated with good functional outcome. Rates of mortality and disability were higher in patients not treated, especially in the case of higher NIHSS scores. In the PSM comparison, 173/250 patients (69.2%) who had received reperfusion therapies had good functional outcome at 90 days, compared to 146/250 (58.4%) untreated patients (p = 0.009, OR: 1.60, 95% CI:1.11-2.31). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with AF and AIS treated with reperfusion therapies had a significantly higher rate of good functional outcome and lower rates of mortality compared to those patients with AF and AIS who had undergone conservative treatment.

The Cost and the Value of Stroke Care in Greece: Results from the SUN4P Study.

The aim of this study was to measure the one-year total cost of strokes and to investigate the value of stroke care, defined as cost per QALY. The study population included 892 patients with first-ever acute strokes, hemorrhagic strokes, and ischemic strokes, (ICD-10 codes: I61, I63, and I64) admitted within 48 h of symptoms onset to nine public hospitals located in six cities. We conducted a bottom-up cost analysis from the societal point of view. All cost components including direct medical costs, productivity losses due to morbidity and mortality, and informal care costs were considered. We used an annual time horizon, including all costs for 2021, irrespective of the time of disease onset. The average cost (direct and indirect) was extrapolated in order to estimate the national annual burden associated with stroke. We estimated the total cost of stroke in Greece at EUR 343.1 mil. a year in 2021, (EUR 10,722/patient or EUR 23,308 per QALY). Out of EUR 343.1 mil., 53.3% (EUR 182.9 mil.) consisted of direct healthcare costs, representing 1.1% of current health expenditure in 2021. Overall, productivity losses were calculated at EUR 160.2 mil. The mean productivity losses were estimated to be 116 work days with 55.1 days lost due to premature retirement and absenteeism from work, 18.5 days lost due to mortality, and 42.4 days lost due to informal caregiving by family members. This study highlights the burden of stroke and underlines the need for stakeholders and policymakers to re-organize stroke care and promote interventions that have been proven cost-effective.

Stroke Units Necessity for Patients, Web-Based "SUN4P" Registry: Descriptive Characteristics of the Population.

The aim of this study was to present the descriptive characteristics of the Stroke Units Necessity for Patients (SUN4P) registry. METHODS: The study population derived from the web-based SUN4P registry included 823 patients with first-ever acute stroke. Descriptive statistics were used to present patients' characteristics. RESULTS: The vast majority of patients (80.4%) had an ischemic stroke, whereas 15.4% had a hemorrhagic stroke. Hypertension was the leading risk factor in both patients. The patients with ischemic stroke had higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and smoking and most commonly cryptogenic stroke (39%). National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) was higher among patients with hemorrhagic in comparison to those with ischemic stroke (10.5 vs 6 respectively). Moreover, all patients had similar rate of disability prior to stroke, as shown by Modified Rankin Scale (mRS=0). CONCLUSIONS: These data are in accordance with current evidence and should be thoroughly assessed in order to ensure optimal therapeutic management of stroke patients.

Assessing Staff's and Stroke Patients' Experiences in 8 Hospitals in Greece: Results from a Prospective Multi-Center Study ("SUN4Patients").

To assess stroke patient-reported experiences and hospital staff experiences, during hospital stay. METHODS: Stroke patient-reported experiences (n=387) were recorded using the translated and culturally adapted NHS-Stroke Questionnaire into Greek and staff experiences (n=236) were investigated using the Compassion Satisfaction and Burnout subscales of the ProQOL questionnaire. RESULTS: Staff's mean compassion satisfaction score was 39.2 (SD=6.3) and mean burnout score was 24.3 (SD=5.6). Only 38.5% of the staff stated that there is smooth cooperation with healthcare professionals of other specialties/disciplines. Personnel working in an NHS Hospital was more satisfied and less burned-out when compared to personnel working at a University Hospital (p=0.02 and p<0.001, respectively). Mean total patient-reported experiences score was 81.9 (SD=9.5). Bivariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences for total patient-reported experiences among the eight study hospitals (p>0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Health policy planners and decision-makers must take into consideration the results of such self-reported measures to establish innovative techniques to accomplish goals such as staff-specialization, continuous training and applying formal frameworks for efficient cooperation amongst different disciplines.

Inpatient Cost of Stroke Care in Greece: Preliminary Results of the Web-Based "SUN4P" Registry.

The aim of this study was to calculate the average operational cost per sub-type of stroke patient and to investigate cost drivers (e.g. ALoS, NIHSS score, age) correlated to cost. METHODS: Direct medical costs (diagnostic imaging and clinical laboratory exams, overheads/bed cost, pharmaceuticals, ringers and other non-durables and inpatient rehabilitation) per patient were calculated from the providers' (hospitals') perspective. Resource use data derived from the "SUN4P" web-based registry and unit costs were retrieved from publically available sources and were assigned to resource use. RESULTS: The sample comprised 6,282 inpatient days of 750 patients (mean age: 75.5±13.3 years) admitted from July 2019 to July 2021, in nine public hospitals. Mean length of stay was 8.4±7.6 days and mean total operational cost was calculated to €1,239.4 (from which 45% and 35% related to diagnostic exams and overheads/bed cost respectively). Mean cost related to hemorrhagic stroke patients that were discharged alive was calculated significantly higher compared to mean cost related to ischemic stroke patients who didn't undertake thrombolysis and were also discharged alive from the hospital (€2,155.2 vs. €945.2, p<0.001). Linear regression analysis revealed that length of stay was significantly correlated with cost (coefficient beta=232, 95% CI confidence interval = 220-243, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings are in accordance with current evidence and should be thoroughly assessed to rationalize inpatient reimbursement rates in order to achieve improved value of care.

Adherence to oral anticoagulation in ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) have superior safety and comparable efficacy profile compared to vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs), with more convenient dosing schemes. However, issues with adherence to the NOACs remain unsolved. AIMS: We sought to investigate the adherence to oral anticoagulation (OAC) and baseline factors associated with poor adherence after ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We recruited hospitalised patients (2013-2019) from two prospective stroke registries in Larissa and Helsinki University Hospitals and invited survived patients to participate in a telephone interview. We assessed adherence with the Adherence to Refills and Medications Scale (ARMS) and defined poor adherence as a score of over 17. In addition to demographics, individual comorbidities, and stroke features, we assessed the association of CHA2DS2-VASc and SAMe-TT2R2 scores with poor adherence. RESULTS: Among 396 patients (median age 75.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 70-80; 57% men; median time from ischaemic stroke to interview 21 months [IQR 12-33]; median ARMS score 17 [IQR 17-19]), 56% of warfarin users and 44% of NOAC users reported poor adherence. In the multivariable regression model adjusted for site, sex, and age, poor adherence was independently associated with tertiary education, absence of heart failure, smoking history, use of VKA prior to index stroke, and prior ischaemic stroke. CHA2DS2-VASc and SAMe-TT2R2 scores were not associated with poor adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence was poor in half of AF patients who survived an ischaemic stroke. Independent patient-related factors, rather than composite scores, were associated with poor adherence in these patients.KEY MESSAGESAdherence was poor in half of the atrial fibrillation patients who survived an ischaemic stroke.Independent patient-related factors rather than composite scores were associated with poor adherence.The findings support the importance of recognising adherence support as a crucial part of holistic patient care recommended by recent AF guideline.

Machine-Learning-Derived Model for the Stratification of Cardiovascular risk in Patients with Ischemic Stroke.

Background Stratification of cardiovascular risk in patients with ischemic stroke is important as it may inform management strategies. We aimed to develop a machine-learning-derived prognostic model for the prediction of cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two prospective stroke registries with consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients were used as training/validation and test datasets. The outcome assessed was major adverse cardiovascular event, defined as non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death during 2-year follow-up. The variables selection was performed with the LASSO technique. The algorithms XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), Random Forest and Support Vector Machines were selected according to their performance. The evaluation of the classifier was performed by bootstrapping the dataset 1000 times and performing cross-validation by splitting in 60% for the training samples and 40% for the validation samples. RESULTS: The model included age, gender, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, arterial hypertension, statin treatment before stroke onset, prior anticoagulant treatment (in case of atrial fibrillation), creatinine, cervical artery stenosis, anticoagulant treatment at discharge (in case of atrial fibrillation), and statin treatment at discharge. The best accuracy was measured by the XGBoost classifier. In the validation dataset, the area under the curve was 0.648 (95%CI:0.619-0.675) and the balanced accuracy was 0.58 ± 0.14. In the test dataset, the corresponding values were 0.59 and 0.576. CONCLUSIONS: We propose an externally validated machine-learning-derived model which includes readily available parameters and can be used for the estimation of cardiovascular risk in ischemic stroke patients.

Identification of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and low risk of new incident atrial fibrillation: The AF-ESUS score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Only a minority of patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) receive prolonged cardiac monitoring despite current recommendations. The identification of ESUS patients who have low probability of new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) could potentially support a strategy of more individualized allocation of available resources and hence, increase their diagnostic yield. We aimed to develop a tool that can identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. METHODS: We performed multivariate stepwise regression in a pooled dataset of consecutive ESUS patients from three prospective stroke registries to identify predictors of new incident AF. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integer-based point scoring system. RESULTS: Among 839 patients (43.1% women, median age 67.0 years) followed-up for a median of 24.3 months (2999 patient-years), 125 (14.9%) had new incident AF. The proposed score assigns 3 points for age ≥ 60 years; 2 points for hypertension; -1 point for left ventricular hypertrophy reported at echocardiography; 2 points for left atrial diameter >40 mm; -3 points for left ventricular ejection fraction <35%; 1 point for the presence of any supraventricular extrasystole recorded during all available 12-lead standard electrocardiograms performed during hospitalization for the ESUS; -2 points for subcortical infarct; -3 points for the presence of non-stenotic carotid plaques. The rate of new incident AF during follow-up was 1.97% among the 42.3% of the cohort who had a score of ≤0, compared to 26.9% in patients with > 0 (relative risk: 13.7, 95%CI: 5.9--31.5). The area under the curve of the score was 84.8% (95%CI: 79.9--86.9%). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a score of ≤0 for new incident AF during follow-up were 94.9% (95%CI: 89.3--98.1%) and 98.0% (95%CI: 95.8--99.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed AF-ESUS score has high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to identify ESUS patients who have low probability of new incident AF. Patients with a score of 1 or more may be better candidates for prolonged automated cardiac monitoring. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

Access of Stroke Patients' to Optimal Healthcare Technology in Greece: Messages to Policy Makers.

The aim of this study was to evaluate accessibility of stroke patients to optimal healthcare technology in Greece. Methods: The study population consisted of 313 first ever stroke patients derived from the "Stroke Units Necessity for Patients, SUN4P" registry. Descriptive statistics were used, to present patients' characteristics and resources utilization Results: The vast majority of patients (91.7%) conducted a CT scan during the acute phase (within the first 24hours). Almost, (65%) were admitted to wards of Internal Medicine Departments, whereas only 21% of patients were admitted to a Stroke Unit. Of note, a total of 6.9% of ischemic stroke patients received intravenous thrombolytic therapy with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA). Conclusions: Preliminary results from SUN4P underline the urgent necessity for the re-organization of acute stroke care in Greece, as rates of admissions to stroke units and rtPA treatment during the acute phase are currently below optimal.

Developing Patients' Experiences Database After Hospital Discharge: Another Step in Improving Stroke Care.

The aim of this study was to assess stroke patients' experiences in regards to hospital stay and during discharge. A cross-sectional study with retrospective data collection was conducted including patients (n=135) with first-ever acute stroke, who were admitted in seven Public Hospitals in Greece ("Stroke Units Necessity for Patients, SUN4P" registry). The translated version of the NHS-Stroke Questionnaire in the Greek was used. 48.2% of patients rated their overall experience from the care they received as very good/excellent. 66% of patients reported that they participated in decision making about their care and 21.5% reported not having received help from the hospital's social services regarding any benefits/aids, thus lowering their overall patient experience score (p=0.017). Decision and policymakers must consider factors affecting stroke patients 'experiences during their hospitalization. The development of a national stroke patients' experiences database can help prioritize relevant actions and draw up a commonly accepted management and services redesign framework for patients.

Safety of Anticoagulation in Patients Treated With Urgent Reperfusion for Ischemic Stroke Related to Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The optimal timing for starting oral anticoagulant after an ischemic stroke related to atrial fibrillation remains a challenge, mainly in patients treated with systemic thrombolysis or mechanical thrombectomy. We aimed at assessing the incidence of early recurrence and major bleeding in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation treated with thrombolytic therapy and/or thrombectomy, who then received oral anticoagulants for secondary prevention. METHODS: We combined the dataset of the RAF and the RAF-NOACs (Early Recurrence and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Non-Vitamin K Oral Anticoagulants) studies, which were prospective observational studies carried out from January 2012 to March 2014 and April 2014 to June 2016, respectively. We included consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation treated with either vitamin K antagonists or nonvitamin K oral anticoagulants. Primary outcome was the composite of stroke, transient ischemic attack, symptomatic systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding, and major extracerebral bleeding within 90 days from the inclusion. Treated-patients were propensity matched to untreated-patients in a 1:1 ratio after stratification by baseline clinical features. RESULTS: A total of 2159 patients were included, 564 (26%) patients received acute reperfusion therapies. After the index event, 505 (90%) patients treated with acute reperfusion therapies and 1287 of 1595 (81%) patients untreated started oral anticoagulation. Timing of starting oral anticoagulant was similar in reperfusion-treated and untreated patients (median 7.5 versus 7.0 days, respectively). At 90 days, the primary study outcome occurred in 37 (7%) patients treated with reperfusion and in 146 (9%) untreated patients (odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.50-1.07]). After propensity score matching, risk of primary outcome was comparable between the 2 groups (odds ratio, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.53-2.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Acute reperfusion treatment did not influence the risk of early recurrence and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation-related acute ischemic stroke, who started on oral anticoagulant.

Characteristics and outcomes of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source according to stroke severity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS) usually present with mild symptoms. We aimed to compare the baseline characteristics between mild and severe ESUS, identify predictors for severe ESUS, and assess outcomes of patients with severe ESUS. METHODS: In the AF-ESUS (AF-ESUS) dataset, we stratified ESUS severity using the median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission as cut-off. We performed multivariable stepwise regression analyses to identify independent predictors of severe ESUS and to assess the association between ESUS severity and stroke recurrence, death, and new incident atrial fibrillation (AF) on follow-up. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcome incidence were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. RESULTS: In 772 patients (median NIHSS: 6 (interquartile range: 3-12)), 414 (53.6%) patients had severe ESUS (i.e. NIHSS ≥6). Female sex was the only independent predictor for severe ESUS (odds ratio: 1.72 (1.27-2.33)). The rates of recurrence (3.3%/year vs. 3.4%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.09 (0.73-1.62)) and new incident AF (13.5% vs. 17.0%, adjusted odds ratio: 0.67 (0.44-1.03)) were similar between severe and mild ESUS, but mortality was higher (5.4%/year vs. 3.7%/year, adjusted-hazard ratio: 1.51 (1.05-2.16)) in severe ESUS. The 10-year cumulative probability for stroke recurrence was similar between severe and mild ESUS (38.1% (29.2-48.6) vs. 36.6% (27.8-47.0), log-rank test: 0.01, p = 0.920). The 10-year cumulative probability of death was higher in patients with severe ESUS compared with mild ESUS (40.5% (32.5-50.0) vs. 34.0% (26.0-43.6) respectively; log-rank test: 4.54, p = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Women have more severe ESUS compared with men. Patients with severe ESUS have similar rates of stroke recurrence and new incident AF, but higher mortality compared with mild ESUS.

Left atrial diameter thresholds and new incident atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of undetermined source.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We analyzed consecutive patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) from three prospective stroke registries to compare the prognostic performance of different LAD thresholds for the prediction of new incident AF. METHODS: We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive prognostic value (PPV), negative prognostic value (NPV) and Youden's J-statistic of different LAD thresholds to predict new incident AF. We performed multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates to assess the association between the LAD threshold with the highest Youden's J-statistic and AF detection. RESULTS: Among 675 patients followed for 2437 patient-years, the mean LAD was 38.5 ± 6.8 mm. New incident AF was diagnosed in 115 (17.0%) patients. The LAD threshold of 40mm yielded the highest Youden's J-statistic of 0.35 with sensitivity 0.69, specificity 0.66, PPV 0.27 and NPV 0.92. The likelihood of new incident AF was nearly twice in patients with LAD > 40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (HR:1.92, 95%CI:1.24-2.97, p = 0.004). The 10-year cumulative probability of new incident AF was higher in patients with LAD>40 mm compared to LAD ≤ 40 mm (53.5% and 22.4% respectively, log-rank-test: 28.2, p < 0.001). The annualized rate of stroke recurrence of 4.0% in the overall population did not differ significantly in patient above vs. below this LAD threshold (HR:0.96, 95%CI:0.62-1.48, p = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The LAD threshold of 40 mm has the best prognostic performance among other LAD values to predict new incident AF after ESUS. The diagnostic yield of prolonged cardiac rhythm monitoring in patients with LAD ≤ 40 mm seems low; therefore, such patients may have lower priority for prolonged cardiac monitoring.

Supraventricular Extrasystoles on Standard 12-lead Electrocardiogram Predict New Incident Atrial Fibrillation after Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: The AF-ESUS Study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of covert atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a major challenge to guide secondary prevention of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). AIMS: We analyzed consecutive ESUS patients from 3 prospective stroke registries to assess whether the presence of supraventricular extrasystoles (SVE) on standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with the detection of AF (primary outcome), stroke recurrence and death (secondary outcomes) during follow-up. METHODS: We measured the number of SVEs in all available ECGs of patients hospitalized for ESUS. Multivariate stepwise regression with forward selection of covariates assessed the association between SVE (classified in 4 groups according to their number per 10 seconds of ECG: no SVE, >0-1SVEs, >1-2SVEs, and >2SVEs) and outcomes during follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method estimated the 10-year cumulative probabilities of outcomes in each SVE group. We calculated the negative prognostic value (NPV) of the presence of any SVE to predict new AF, defined as the probability that AF will not be detected during follow-up if there is no SVE. RESULTS: Among 853 ESUS patients followed for 2857 patient-years (median age: 67 years, 43.0% women), 226 (26.5%) patients had at least 1 SVE at the standard 12-lead ECGs performed during hospitalization. AF was detected in 125 (14.7%) of patients in the overall population during follow-up: 8.9%, 22.5%, 28.1%, and 48.3% in patients with no SVE, greater than 0-1SVE, greater than 1-2SVE and greater than 2SVE respectively. In multivariate regression analysis, compared to patients with no SVEs, the corresponding hazard-ratios were 1.80 [95% confidence intervals (95%CI):1.06-3.05], 2.26 (95%CI:1.28-4.01) and 3.19 (95%CI:1.93-5.27). The NPV of the presence of any SVE for the prediction of new AF was 91.4%. There was no statistically significant association of SVE with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence and death. CONCLUSIONS: In ESUS patients without SVEs during hospitalization, the probability that AF will not be detected during a follow-up of 3.4 years is more than 91%.

Timing of initiation of oral anticoagulants in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation comparing posterior and anterior circulation strokes.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study in patients with acute posterior ischaemic stroke (PS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) was to evaluate (1) the risks of recurrent ischaemic event and severe bleeding and (2) these risks in relation with oral anticoagulant therapy (OAT) and its timing. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with PS were prospectively included; the outcome events of these patients were compared with those of patients with anterior stroke (AS) which were taken from previous registries. The primary outcome was the composite of stroke recurrence, transient ischaemic attack, symptomatic systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding and major extracranial bleeding occurring within 90 days from acute stroke. RESULTS: A total of 2470 patients were available for the analysis: 473 (19.1%) with PS and 1997 (80.9%) with AS. Over 90 days, 213 (8.6%) primary outcome events were recorded: 175 (8.7%) in patients with AS and 38 (8.0%) in those with PS. In patients who initiated OAT within 2 days, the primary outcome occurred in 5 out of 95 patients (5.3%) with PS compared to 21 out of 373 patients (4.3%) with AS (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.39-2.94). In patients who initiated OAT between days 3 and 7, the primary outcome occurred in 3 out of 103 patients (2.9%) with PS compared to 26 out of 490 patients (5.3%) with AS (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.16-1.80). DISCUSSION: our findings suggest that, when deciding the time to initiate oral anticoagulation, the location of stroke, either anterior or posterior, does not predict the risk of outcome events. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PS or AS and AF appear to have similar risks of ischaemic or haemorrhagic events at 90 days with no difference concerning the timing of initiation of OAT.

External Performance of the HAVOC Score for the Prediction of New Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Background and Purpose- The HAVOC score (hypertension, age, valvular heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease) was proposed for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) after cryptogenic stroke. It showed good model discrimination (area under the curve, 0.77). Only 2.5% of patients with a low-risk HAVOC score (ie, 0-4) were diagnosed with new incident AF. We aimed to assess its performance in an external cohort of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source. Methods- In the AF-embolic stroke of undetermined source dataset, we assessed the discriminatory power, calibration, specificity, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the HAVOC score to predict new incident AF. Patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 were considered as low-risk, as proposed in its original publication. Results- In 658 embolic stroke of undetermined source patients (median age, 67 years; 44% women), the median HAVOC score was 2 (interquartile range, 3). There were 540 (82%) patients with a HAVOC score of 0 to 4 and 118 (18%) with a score of ≥5. New incident AF was diagnosed in 95 (14.4%) patients (28.8% among patients with HAVOC score ≥5 and 11.3% among patients with HAVOC score 0-4 [age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio, 2.29 (95% CI, 1.37-3.82)]). The specificity of low-risk HAVOC score to identify patients without new incident AF was 88.7%. The negative predictive value of low-risk HAVOC score was 85.1%. The accuracy was 78.0%, and the area under the curve was 68.7% (95% CI, 62.1%-73.3%). Conclusions- The previously reported low rate of AF among embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with low-risk HAVOC score was not confirmed in our cohort. Further assessment of the HAVOC score is warranted before it is routinely implemented in clinical practice.

A tool to identify patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source at high recurrence risk.

OBJECTIVE: A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence. METHODS: We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-3.06) in patients with a score of 0-4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77-5.04) in patients with a score of 5-6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99-11.3) in patients with a score of 7-12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1-2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83-7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58-0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54-0.66), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.

Prevalence and Overlap of Potential Embolic Sources in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source.

Background We aimed to assess the prevalence and degree of overlap of potential embolic sources (PES) in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Methods and Results In a pooled data set derived from 3 prospective stroke registries, patients were categorized in ≥1 groups according to the PES that was/were identified. We categorized PES as follows: atrial cardiopathy, atrial fibrillation diagnosed during follow-up, arterial disease, left ventricular disease, cardiac valvular disease, patent foramen ovale, and cancer. In 800 patients with ESUS (43.1% women; median age, 67.0 years), 3 most prevalent PES were left ventricular disease, arterial disease, and atrial cardiopathy, which were present in 54.4%, 48.5%, and 45.0% of patients, respectively. Most patients (65.5%) had >1 PES, whereas only 29.7% and 4.8% of patients had a single or no PES, respectively. In 31.1% of patients, there were ≥3 PES present. On average, each patient had 2 PES (median, 2). During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 101 (12.6%) of patients (23.3 recurrences per 100 patient-years). In multivariate analysis, the risk of stroke recurrence was higher in the atrial fibrillation group compared with other PES, but not statistically different between patients with 0 to 1, 2, or ≥3 PES. Conclusions There is major overlap of PES in patients with ESUS. This may possibly explain the negative results of the recent large randomized controlled trials of secondary prevention in patients with ESUS and offer a rationale for a randomized controlled trial of combination of anticoagulation and aspirin for the prevention of stroke recurrence in patients with ESUS. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02766205.

Anticoagulation After Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Background and Purpose- Bridging therapy with low-molecular-weight heparin reportedly leads to a worse outcome for acute cardioembolic stroke patients because of a higher incidence of intracerebral bleeding. However, this practice is common in clinical settings. This observational study aimed to compare (1) the clinical profiles of patients receiving and not receiving bridging therapy, (2) overall group outcomes, and (3) outcomes according to the type of anticoagulant prescribed. Methods- We analyzed data of patients from the prospective RAF and RAF-NOACs studies. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding, and major extracerebral bleeding observed at 90 days after the acute stroke. Results- Of 1810 patients who initiated oral anticoagulant therapy, 371 (20%) underwent bridging therapy with full-dose low-molecular-weight heparin. Older age and the presence of leukoaraiosis were inversely correlated with the use of bridging therapy. Forty-two bridged patients (11.3%) reached the combined outcome versus 72 (5.0%) of the nonbridged patients (P=0.0001). At multivariable analysis, bridging therapy was associated with the composite end point (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.7; P<0.0001), as well as ischemic (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.9; P=0.005) and hemorrhagic (odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.9; P=0.01) end points separately. Conclusions- Our findings suggest that patients receiving low-molecular-weight heparin have a higher risk of early ischemic recurrence and hemorrhagic transformation compared with nonbridged patients.

Early recurrence in paroxysmal versus sustained atrial fibrillation in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between different patterns of atrial fibrillation and early recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke is unclear. PURPOSE: In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the rates of early ischaemic recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation which included persistent and permanent atrial fibrillation. METHODS: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, atrial fibrillation was categorised as paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation. Ischaemic recurrences were the composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack and symptomatic systemic embolism occurring within 90 days from acute index stroke. RESULTS: A total of 2150 patients (1155 females, 53.7%) were enrolled: 930 (43.3%) had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and 1220 (56.7%) sustained atrial fibrillation. During the 90-day follow-up, 111 ischaemic recurrences were observed in 107 patients: 31 in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (3.3%) and 76 with sustained atrial fibrillation (6.2%) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.86 (95% CI 1.24-2.81)). Patients with sustained atrial fibrillation were on average older, more likely to have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of stroke/ transient ischaemic attack, congestive heart failure, atrial enlargement, high baseline NIHSS-score and implanted pacemaker. After adjustment by Cox proportional hazard model, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with early ischaemic recurrences (adjusted HR 1.23 (95% CI 0.74-2.04)). CONCLUSIONS: After acute ischaemic stroke, patients with sustained atrial fibrillation had a higher rate of early ischaemic recurrence than patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for relevant risk factors, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with a significantly higher risk of recurrence, thus suggesting that the risk profile associated with atrial fibrillation, rather than its pattern, is determinant for recurrence.