Prediction of long-term treatment outcome in HCV following 24 day PEG-IFN alpha-2b therapy using population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic mixture modeling and classification analysis.

Mathematical models have been widely used for understanding the dynamics of the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We propose a method to predict final clinical outcome for 24 HIV-HCV - coinfected patients with the help of a mathematical model based on the first two weeks of PEG-IFN therapy. Applying a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) approach, together with mixture models, to the adapted model of viral dynamics developed by Neumann et al., we have analyzed the influence of PEG-IFN on the kinetics and interaction of target cells, infected cells and virus mRNA. It was found that PEG-IFN pharmacokinetic parameters were similar in sustained virological responders and nonresponders, while the plasma PEG-IFN concentration that decreases HCV production by 50% (EC50) and the rate of infected cell death were different. The treatment outcome depended mainly on the initial viral mRNA concentration and the rate of infected cell death. The population PKPD approach with a mixture model enabled the determination of individual PKPD parameters and showed high sensitivity (93.5%) and specificity (97.4%) for the prediction of the treatment outcome.

Regulation of leukotriene and 5oxoETE synthesis and the effect of 5-lipoxygenase inhibitors: a mathematical modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO) is a key enzyme in the synthesis of leukotrienes and 5-Oxo-6E,8Z,11Z,14Z-eicosatetraenoic acid (oxoETE). These inflammatory signaling molecules play a role in the pathology of asthma and so 5-LO inhibition is a promising target for asthma therapy. The 5-LO redox inhibitor zileuton (Zyflo IR/CR(®)) is currently marketed for the treatment of asthma in adults and children, but widespread use of zileuton is limited by its efficacy/safety profile, potentially related to its redox characteristics. Thus, a quantitative, mechanistic description of its functioning may be useful for development of improved anti-inflammatory targeting this mechanism. RESULTS: A mathematical model describing the operation of 5-LO, phospholipase A2, glutathione peroxidase and 5-hydroxyeicosanoid dehydrogenase was developed. The catalytic cycles of the enzymes were reconstructed and kinetic parameters estimated on the basis of available experimental data. The final model describes each stage of cys-leukotriene biosynthesis and the reactions involved in oxoETE production. Regulation of these processes by substrates (phospholipid concentration) and intracellular redox state (concentrations of reduced glutathione, glutathione (GSH), and lipid peroxide) were taken into account. The model enabled us to reveal differences between redox and non-redox 5-LO inhibitors under conditions of oxidative stress. Despite both redox and non-redox inhibitors suppressing leukotriene A4 (LTA4) synthesis, redox inhibitors are predicted to increase oxoETE production, thus compromising efficacy. This phenomena can be explained in terms of the pseudo-peroxidase activity of 5-LO and the ability of lipid peroxides to transform 5-LO into its active form even in the presence of redox inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model developed described quantitatively different mechanisms of 5-LO inhibition and simulations revealed differences between the potential therapeutic outcomes for these mechanisms.