Simulation of human exposure to benzylpenicillin residues via pork originating from pigs fed with a dairy by-product.

The use of food industry by-products for feeding is restricted by European Union by-product regulation (1774/2002). However, the actual public health risks involved in the use of such products are poorly recognized. This study focuses on bovine milk rejected at the dairy because of a positive result in antimicrobial drug testing and thereafter used as feed for finisher pigs in Finland. In theory, this current practice could expose pork consumers to antimicrobial drug residues. Raw bulk milk samples originating from rejected lots were analysed with a multiresidue method detecting five beta-lactams, including benzylpenicillin. Based on the probabilistic simulation model developed, concentrations of benzylpenicillin in pork invariably remained below 1% of the maximum residue limit. Therefore, the use of this by-product as feed with the current practice was considered to pose only a negligible risk to consumers of pork products.

The role of emigration and migration in Swedish industrialization.

PIP: It is possible, within a general equilibrium framework, to reveal some of the important mechansims in the rather complicated interplay among the variables causing demoeconomic development. The model for this study is a computable general equilibrium model within the tradition of multisectoral growth models and is designed to fit Swedish prewar development and to enable counterfactual analysis. The model is reviewed briefly followed by comments on the database, estimation procedure and validation; displays of some comparative static experiments; and an evaluation of the capability of the model in replicating Swedish demoeconomic development between 1871-90 before examining the counterfactual simulations which address the role of external and internal migration in Swedish industrialization. There are at least 2 reasons for carrying out comparative static experiments: by undertaking parameter changes and exploring the equilibrium effect on the model, further insights will be realized concerning the behavior of the model and its validity; and some of the comparative static experiments are interesting from the point of view of policy analysis because they reveal the static, total effect on the economy of changes in some variables discussed by 19th century Swedish politicians. The experiments are organized into 2 groups: rural and population experiments. The base run simulation from 1871-90 indicates that the model captures the essential factors of the demoeconomic development of Sweden. The model's ability to replicate historical trends in some of the crucial variables permits use of the base simulation as a reference point when undertaking counterfactual simulations. The 1st simulation evaluates the effects of emigration on the Swedish economy; the remaining 2 simulations assess the importance of rural to urban migration. The model indicates that without emigration real rural wages would have been 1.8% lower in 1880 and 10.0% lower in 1890. Urban wages would have been unaffected in 1880 but 1.5% higher in 1890. Emigration apparently had a positive effect on the standard of living in the rural areas, but possibly even larger rural to urban migration than occurred in the simulation would have happened in the absence of emigration. Rural to urban migration apparently had a significant growth creating effect. The reallocation of labor force to the more dynamic and high wage urban sector with its modern technology and higher rate of productivity change was of great importance to the economic performance of the national economy. More rural to urban migration has a temporary growth creating effect, but in the long run this effect disappears, because it also decreases the wage gap between rural and urban areas and consequently has a boomerang effect on itself.^ieng