Facilitating safe discharge through predicting disease progression in moderate COVID-19: a prospective cohort study to develop and validate a clinical prediction model in resource-limited settings

BackgroundIn locations where few people have received COVID-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed. MethodsWe prospectively recruited adults presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex and SpO2) and one of seven shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using near-patient tests (CRP, D-dimer, IL-6, NLR, PCT, sTREM-1 or suPAR), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the models in a temporal external validation cohort. Findings426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21{middle dot}0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development cohort and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The three models containing NLR, suPAR or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0{middle dot}72 to 0{middle dot}74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1{middle dot}01 to 1{middle dot}05) in the validation cohort, and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone. InterpretationWe present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources. FundingMedecins Sans Frontieres, India. RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSA living systematic review by Wynants et al. identified 137 COVID-19 prediction models, 47 of which were derived to predict whether patients with COVID-19 will have an adverse outcome. Most lacked external validation, relied on retrospective data, did not focus on patients with moderate disease, were at high risk of bias, and were not practical for use in resource-limited settings. To identify promising biochemical biomarkers which may have been evaluated independently of a prediction model and therefore not captured by this review, we searched PubMed on 1 June 2020 using synonyms of "SARS-CoV-2" AND ["biomarker" OR "prognosis"]. We identified 1,214 studies evaluating biochemical biomarkers of potential value in the prognostication of COVID-19 illness. In consultation with FIND (Geneva, Switzerland) we shortlisted seven candidates for evaluation in this study, all of which are measurable using near-patient tests which are either currently available or in late-stage development. Added value of this studyWe followed the TRIPOD guidelines to develop and validate three promising clinical prediction models to help clinicians identify which patients presenting with moderate COVID-19 can be safely managed in the community. Each model contains three easily ascertained clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and one biochemical biomarker (NLR, suPAR or IL-6), and would be practical for implementation in high-patient-throughput low resource settings. The models showed promising discrimination and calibration in the validation cohort. The inclusion of a biomarker test improved prognostication compared to a model containing the clinical parameters alone, and extended the range of contexts in which such a tool might provide utility to include situations when bed pressures are less critical, for example at earlier points in a COVID-19 surge. Implications of all the available evidencePrognostic models should be developed for clearly-defined clinical use-cases. We report the development and temporal validation of three clinical prediction models to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement amongst patients presenting with moderate COVID-19. The models are readily implementable and should prove useful in triage and resource allocation. We provide our full models to enable independent validation.

Tuberculous ARDS is associated with worse outcome when compared with non-tuberculous infectious ARDS.

BACKGROUND: Patients with tuberculosis (TB) developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) may have a higher mortality when compared with ARDS of other infectious etiology. METHODOLOGY: In this single-centre retrospective cohort study spanning 5-years (2012 to 2016), TB-ARDS patients were age and gender matched (1:2) with non-TB infectious ARDS and followed up until death or hospital discharge. Clinical profile, treatment and outcomes were compared using t-test and Chi-square as appropriate. Mortality predictors were explored using Conditional Poisson regression analysis and expressed as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Of the 516 ARDS patients, 74 TB-ARDS and 148 non-TB infectious ARDS patients were included. Although admission APACHE-II (21.4 ± 7.1 vs. 17.6 ± 6.8, p < 0.001), incidence of shock (36.5% vs. 19.1%, p = 0.005) and mortality (59.5% vs. 29.7%, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in TB-ARDS than non-TB etiology, overall ICU length of stay and nosocomial infections were similar in both groups. On regression analysis, after adjusting for confounders, TB-ARDS (RR 1.82; 95% CI 1.13-2.92) and need for inotropes (RR 3.49; 95% CI 1.44-8.46) were independently associated with death. CONCLUSION: Patients with TB-ARDS presented sicker and had higher mortality when compared with ARDS due to non-TB infectious etiology.

Evolutionary tracking of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants highlights intricate balance of stabilizing and destabilizing mutations

The currently ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has accounted for millions of infections and deaths across the globe. Genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 are being published daily in public databases and the availability of this genome datasets has allowed unprecedented access into the mutational patterns of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. We made use of the same genomic information for conducting phylogenetic analysis and identifying lineage-specific mutations. The catalogued lineage defining mutations were analysed for their stabilizing or destabilizing impact on viral proteins. We recorded persistence of D614G, S477N, A222V V1176F variants and a global expansion of the PANGOLIN variant B.1. In addition, a retention of Q57H (B.1.X), R203K/G204R (B.1.1.X), T85I (B.1.2-B.1.3), G15S+T428I (C.X) and I120F (D.X) variations was observed. Overall, we recorded a striking balance between stabilizing and destabilizing mutations, therefore well-maintained protein structures. With selection pressures in the form of newly developed vaccines and therapeutics to mount soon in coming months, the task of mapping of viral mutations and recording of their impact on key viral proteins would be crucial to pre-emptively catch any escape mechanism that SARS-CoV-2 may evolve for. STUDY IMPORTANCEAs large numbers of the SARS CoV-2 genome sequences are shared in publicly accessible repositories, it enables scientists a detailed evolutionary analysis since its initial isolation in Wuhan, China. We investigated the evolutionarily associated mutational diversity overlaid on the major phylogenetic lineages circulating globally, using 513 representative genomes. We detailed phylogenetic persistence of key variants facilitating global expansion of the PANGOLIN variant B.1, including the recent, fast expanding, B.1.1.7 lineage. The stabilizing or destabilizing impact of the catalogued lineage defining mutations on viral proteins indicates their possible involvement in balancing the protein function and structure. A clear understanding of this mutational profile is of high clinical significance to catch any vaccine escape mechanism, as the same proteins make crucial components of vaccines recently approved and in development. In this direction, our study provides an imperative framework and baseline data upon which further analysis could be built as newer variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to appear.

Acute oleander poisoning: A study of clinical profile from a tertiary care center in South India.

INTRODUCTION: Yellow oleander (Thevetia peruviana), which belongs to the Apocyanaceae family, is a common shrub seen throughout the tropics. All parts of the plant contain high concentrations of cardiac glycosides which are toxic to cardiac muscle and the autonomic nervous system. Here, we describe the clinical profile of patients with oleander poisoning and their outcomes. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This retrospective study was conducted over a period of 12 months (March 2016 to February 2017). The data was extracted from the inpatient electronic medical records. Adult patients with a diagnosis of acute yellow oleander poisoning were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were obtained for all variables in the study and appropriate statistical tests were employed to ascertain their significance. RESULTS: The study comprised 30 patients aged 30.77 ± 12.31 (mean ± SD) who presented at 12.29 ± 8.48 hours after consumption of yellow oleander. Vomiting (80%) was the most common presenting symptom. Metabolic abnormalities at presentation included hyperchloremia in 22 patients and metabolic acidosis (bicarbonate <24 mmol/L) in 29 patients. Fifteen (50%) patients had abnormal ECG, of which second-degree AV block was the commonest ECG abnormality seen in 4 (13.3%). Fifteen (50%) patients had transvenous temporary pacemaker insertion (TPI). Having a TPI significantly prolonged the duration of hospital stay (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.06-3.21, P 0.03). The mortality in the cohort was 2 (6.7%). CONCLUSION: In patients with yellow oleander poisoning, dyselectrolytemia with ECG abnormalities was common. TPI prolonged the duration of hospital stay. Further studies are required to know the indication for and to ascertain the effect of temporary pacing on survival.

Spectrum of cardiac manifestations and its relationship to outcomes in patients admitted with scrub typhus infection.

AIM: To study the spectrum of cardiac manifestations in scrub typhus infection and assess its relationship to outcomes. METHODS: Demographic data, electrocardiographic (ECG) changes, left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function, myocardial injury (defined as troponin T > 14 pg/mL), and pericardial effusion were documented. Myocarditis was diagnosed when myocardial injury was associated with global LV systolic dysfunction. The relationship between myocarditis and outcomes was assessed using logistic regression analysis and expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95%CI. RESULTS: The cohort (n = 81; 35 males) aged 49.4 ± 16.1 years (mean, SD) presented 8.1 ± 3.1 d after symptom onset. The APACHE-II score was 15.7 ± 7.0. Forty-eight (59%) patients were ventilated, and 46 (56%) required vasoactive agents. Mortality was 9.9%. ECG changes were non-specific; sinus tachycardia was the most common finding. Myocardial injury was evident in 61.7% of patients and LV systolic dysfunction in 30.9%. A diagnosis of myocarditis was made in 12.3%. In addition, seven patients with regional wall motion abnormalities had LV systolic dysfunction and elevated cardiac enzymes. Mild diastolic dysfunction was observed in 18 (22%) patients. Mild to moderate pericardial effusion was seen in 51%. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, patients with myocarditis tended to be older (OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 0.99-1.09), had shorter symptom duration (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.49-0.98), and tended to stay longer in hospital (OR = 1.17, 95%CI: 0.98-1.40). Myocarditis was not associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSION: In scrub typhus infection, cardiac manifestations are frequent and associated with increased morbidity but not mortality.

Arteriolymphatic Fistula: An Unusual Cause of Spontaneous Swelling in the Left Supraclavicular Region.

An abnormal fistulous communication between an artery and lymphatic system is a rare occurrence. We report a 38-year-old male presenting with sudden onset, spontaneous, pulsatile swelling in the left supraclavicular region following a recent cardiac catheterisation via right femoral arterial access. On evaluation, he was found to have a femoral arteriolymphatic fistula. He was managed conservatively with ultrasound-guided compression with complete resolution of symptoms at follow-up. This case describes a hitherto unknown complication of percutaneous vascular cannulation presenting in an unusual manner, diagnosed with Doppler Ultrasonography and CT angiography and managed effectively with a non-invasive therapeutic image-guided manoeuvre.

Estimation of Monocrotophos renal elimination half-life in humans.

INTRODUCTION: Monocrotophos, implicated in about 1/4th of organophosphate poisonings in our centre, is associated with the highest mortality (24%). Yet data on its pharmacokinetics in humans is limited. We estimated the renal elimination half-life of monocrotophos. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting with monocrotophos overdose over a 2-month period who had normal renal function were recruited. Monocrotophos in plasma and urine were quantitated by high-performance liquid chromatography. Urine was obtained from catheterised samples at 0-2, 2-4, 4-6, 6-8, 8-12 and 12-24 h. Plasma specimens were collected at the time of admission, and at the midpoint of the urine sample collections at 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15 and 21 h. Renal elimination half-life was calculated from the cumulative amount excreted in the urine. RESULTS: The cohort of 5 male patients, aged 35.8 ± 2.94 years, presented with typical organophosphate (cholinergic) toxidrome following intentional monocrotophos overdose. All patients required mechanical ventilation; one patient died. Plasma data was available from 5 patients and urine data from 3 patients. The median renal elimination half-life was 3.3 (range: 1.9-5.0 h). Plasma monocrotophos values, as natural log, fell in a linear fashion up to around 10 h after admission. After the 10-hour period, there was a secondary rise in values in all the 3 patients in whom sampling was continued after 10 h. CONCLUSION: A renal elimination half-life of 3.3 h for monocrotophos is consistent with a water-soluble compound which is rapidly cleared from the plasma. The secondary rise in plasma monocrotophos values suggests possible re-distribution. Determining the elimination profile of this compound will help develop better strategies for treatment.

Profile of organ dysfunction and predictors of mortality in severe scrub typhus infection requiring intensive care admission.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Scrub typhus, a zoonotic rickettsial infection, is an important reason for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in the Indian subcontinent. We describe the clinical profile, organ dysfunction, and predictors of mortality of severe scrub typhus infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective study of patients admitted with scrub typhus infection to a tertiary care university affiliated teaching hospital in India during a 21-month period. RESULTS: The cohort (n = 116) aged 40.0 ± 15.2 years (mean ± SD), presented 8.5 ± 4.4 days after symptom onset. Common symptoms included fever (100%), breathlessness (68.5%), and altered mental status (25.5%). Forty-seven (41.6%) patients had an eschar. Admission APACHE-II score was 19.6 ± 8.2. Ninety-one (85.2%) patients had dysfunction of 3 or more organ systems. Respiratory (96.6%) and hematological (86.2%) dysfunction were frequent. Mechanical ventilation was required in 102 (87.9%) patients, of whom 14 (12.1%) were solely managed with non-invasive ventilation. Thirteen patients (11.2%) required dialysis. Duration of hospital stay was 10.7 ± 9.7 days. Actual hospital mortality (24.1%) was less than predicted APACHE-II mortality (36%; 95% Confidence interval 32-41). APACHE-II score and duration of fever were independently associated with mortality on logistic regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of severe scrub typhus infection with multi-organ dysfunction, survival was good despite high severity of illness scores. APACHE-II score and duration of fever independently predicted mortality.

Elevated procalcitonin is associated with increased mortality in patients with scrub typhus infection needing intensive care admission.

CONTEXT: Procalcitonin is a biomarker of bacterial sepsis. It is unclear if scrub typhus, a rickettsial illness, is associated with elevated procalcitonin levels. AIM: To assess if scrub typhus infection is associated with high procalcitonin levels and whether high levels portend a poorer prognosis. SETTING AND DESIGN: Retrospective study of patients with severe scrub typhus infection, admitted to the medical intensive care unit of a tertiary care university affiliated teaching hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-four patients with severe scrub typhus infection that also had procalcitonin levels were assessed. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Relationship between procalcitonin and mortality explored using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age was 40.0 ± 15.5 years. Patients were symptomatic for 8.3 ± 4.3 days prior to presentation. The median admission procalcitonin level was 4.0 (interquartile range 1.8 to 8.5) ng/ml; 59 (70.2%) patients had levels >2 ng/ml. Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 65 patients; 20 patients died. On univariate analysis, admission procalcitonin was associated with increased odds of death [odds ratio (OR) 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 to 1.18]. On multivariate logistic regression analysis including procalcitonin and APACHE-II score, the APACHE-II score was significantly associated with mortality (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.30, P = 0.004) while a trend was observed with procalcitonin (OR 1.05, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.13, P = 0.09). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, AUC, for mortality was 0.77 for procalcitonin and 0.78 for APACHE-II. CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin is elevated in severe scrub typhus infection and may be associated with higher mortality.