Daily variations and factors of atmospheric PCDD/Fs in post-harvest paddy fields: PCDD/F source estimation using a Bayesian semi-factor model.

We investigated the daily variations in the concentration of atmospheric dioxins (PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs) in paddy fields after the autumn harvest. The geometric mean of the concentrations of dioxins during the research period was 0.042 pg-TEQ/m3, and the concentrations ranged from 0.0058 to 0.53 pg-TEQ/m3. When the weather was calm with no rain or snow and the atmosphere was stable, relatively high concentrations of dioxins were observed. The characteristics of congeners and homologues produced through the combustion of PCDD/Fs were classified into four groups using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. In addition, agricultural chemicals (pentachlorophenol, PCP and chlornitrofen, CNP) were identified as the source of PCDD/Fs using a Bayesian semifactor model. When the dioxin concentrations were high, the combustion of TeCDFs and PeCDFs produced large emissions, representing the impact of open burning of rice straw. When the dioxin concentrations were low, the contribution of CNP was strong, indicating the effects of the release of previously used agricultural chemicals from the soil.

Machine Learning Classification of Cerebral Aneurysm Rupture Status with Morphologic Variables and Hemodynamic Parameters.

PURPOSE: To construct a classification model of rupture status and to clarify the importance of morphologic variables and hemodynamic parameters on rupture status by applying a machine learning (ML) algorithm to morphologic and hemodynamic data of cerebral aneurysms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2011 and 2019, 226 (112 ruptured and 114 unruptured) cerebral aneurysms in 188 consecutive patients were retrospectively analyzed with computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A random forest ML algorithm was applied to the results to create three classification models consisting of only morphologic variables (model 1), only hemodynamic parameters (model 2), and both morphologic variables and hemodynamic parameters (model 3). The accuracy of rupture status classification and the importance of each variable or parameter in the models were computed. RESULTS: The accuracy was 77.0% in model 1, 71.2% in model 2, and 78.3% in model 3. The three most important features were projection ratio, size ratio, and aspect ratio in model 1; low shear area ratio, oscillatory shear index, and oscillatory velocity index in model 2; and projection ratio, irregular shape, and size ratio in model 3. CONCLUSION: Classification models of rupture status of cerebral aneurysms were constructed by applying an ML algorithm to morphologic variables and hemodynamic parameters. The model worked with relatively high accuracy, in which projection ratio, irregular shape, and size ratio were important for the discrimination of ruptured aneurysms.Supplemental material is available for this article.© RSNA, 2020.

Quantification of hemodynamic irregularity using oscillatory velocity index in the associations with the rupture status of cerebral aneurysms.

BACKGROUND: Complex and unstable flow patterns are reported to be associated with the rupture status of cerebral aneurysms, while their evaluation depends on qualitative analysis of streamlines of bloodflow. Oscillatory velocity index (OVI) is a hemodynamic parameter to quantify flow patterns. The aim of this study is to elucidate the associations between OVI and the rupture status of cerebral aneurysms. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-nine ruptured and unruptured cerebral aneurysms were analyzed with computational fluid dynamics under pulsatile flow conditions. With the use of median value of OVI, all aneurysms were divided into high and low OVI groups. Statistical analysis was performed to compare rupture status, and morphological and hemodynamic parameters between the two groups. RESULTS: The median value of OVI was 0.006. High OVI was more likely observed in ruptured aneurysms (P=0.028) and associated with irregular shape, complex flow patterns, and unstable flow patterns (P<0.001, respectively). In morphological parameters, maximum size, aspect, projection, size, and volume-to-ostium area ratios were significantly higher in the high OVI group (P<0.001, respectively). In hemodynamic parameters, wall shear stress and wall shear stress gradient were significantly lower, and oscillatory shear index and gradient oscillatory number were significantly higher in the high OVI group (P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: High OVI was associated with rupture status, and morphological and hemodynamic characteristics of ruptured aneurysms. These results indicate that OVI may serve as a valuable hemodynamic parameter for diagnosing rupture status and risks of aneurysms.

Estimation of Polychlorinated Biphenyl Sources in Industrial Port Sediments Using a Bayesian Semifactor Model Considering Unidentified Sources.

Using the chemical balance method, and considering the presence of unidentified sources, we estimated the origins of PCB contamination in surface sediments of Muroran Port, Japan. It was assumed that these PCBs originated from four types of Kanechlor products (KC300, KC400, KC500, and KC600), combustion and two kinds of pigments (azo and phthalocyanine). The characteristics of these congener patterns were summarized on the basis of principal component analysis and explanatory variables determined. A Bayesian semifactor model (CMBK2) was applied to the explanatory variables to analyze the sources of PCBs in the sediments. The resulting estimates of the contribution ratio of each kind of sediment indicate that the existence of unidentified sources can be ignored and that the assumed seven sources are adequate to account for the contamination. Within the port, the contribution ratio of KC500 and KC600 (used as paints for ship hulls) was extremely high, but outside the port, the influence of azo pigments was observable to a limited degree. This indicates that environmental PCBs not derived from technical PCBs are present at levels that cannot be ignored.

A Bayesian approach to probabilistic ecological risk assessment: risk comparison of nine toxic substances in Tokyo surface waters.

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: Quantitative risk comparison of toxic substances is necessary to decide which substances should be prioritized to achieve effective risk management. This study compared the ecological risk among nine major toxic substances (ammonia, bisphenol-A, chloroform, copper, hexavalent chromium, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc) in Tokyo surface waters by adopting an integrated risk analysis procedure using Bayesian statistics. METHODS: Species sensitivity distributions of these substances were derived by using four Bayesian models. Environmental concentration distributions were derived by a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly considered the differences between within-site and between-site variations in environmental concentrations. Medians and confidence intervals of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF) of species were then computed by the Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: The estimated EPAF values suggested that risk from nickel was highest and risk from zinc and ammonia were also high relative to other substances. The risk from copper was highest if bioavailability was not considered, although toxicity correction by a biotic ligand model greatly reduced the estimated risk. The risk from manganese was highest if a conservative risk index estimate (90% upper EPAF confidence limit) was selected. CONCLUSION: It is suggested that zinc is not a predominant risk factor in Tokyo surface waters and strategic efforts are required to reduce the total ecological risk from multiple substances. The presented risk analysis procedure using EPAF and Bayesian statistics is expected to advance methodologies and practices in quantitative ecological risk comparison.

Nationwide study of dioxins in the freshwater fish Carassius auratus (gibelio) langsdorfii (crucian carp) in Japan: concentrations and estimation of source contribution ratios.

We investigated dioxin concentrations in freshwater fish in Japan by standardizing species to detect subtle decreasing trends of dioxin concentrations in the future with the reinforcement of regulations. The fish studied were crucian carp (Carassius auratus (gibelio) langsdorfii), an omnivorous species. Fish and sediments were collected from 14 rivers and lakes located in remote areas, agricultural areas, and small and large cities throughout Japan. The total toxic equivalent (TEQ) dioxin concentrations at the three remote sites were about 20% of the concentrations at the other 11 sites, which all had similar concentrations. The average concentrations in fish collected from these 11 sites were 0.69pgTEQg(-1) wet wt. (95% CI 0.52-0.85) or 57.3pgTEQg(-1) fat (95% CI 47.9-66.7). There were notable differences in congener profiles of polychlorinated p-dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) between sampling areas. A chemical mass balance method was used to estimate the proportions of dioxin contributions from different sources. The sampling areas were classified into four groups on the basis of the predominant source of dioxin contamination: a combustion group, a chlornitrofen herbicide group, a chlornitrofen and pentachlorphenol herbicide group, and a remote group. The congener profiles of dioxin like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs) were almost the same in all areas and close to those in Kanechlor, which indicates that pollution from PCB products has spread throughout Japan. From samples collected during the spawning season, it was determined that about 20% of the dioxins in adult females were transferred to the eggs, resulting in higher dioxin concentrations in adult males than in females. Biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) of 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs/DFs for crucian carp were larger than those of non-2,3,7,8-substituted congeners, and BASFs decreased with increasing number of chlorines. The BSAFs of DL-PCBs were 10 times greater than those of PCDDs/DFs, and BSAFs of mono-ortho type DL-PCBs were higher than those of non-ortho types.

PCDD/F contamination over time in Japanese paddy soils.

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs)were analyzed in preserved paddy soils periodically collected from 7 sites around Japan since 1960 to trace the changes in concentrations, to elucidate their sources, and to estimate their mass balance in Japanese paddy fields. Concentrations of sigma PCDD/Fs in paddy soils from all sites increased during the 1960s and the 1970s, then decreased. The results of principal component analysis and chemical mass balance based on functional relationship analysis indicate that the increase in sigma PCDD/F concentrations in paddy soils was due to the increased use of pentachlorophenol (PCP) and chlornitrofen (CNP); more than 95% of PCDD/Fs in all paddy soils were derived from impurities in these herbicides. The half-lives of PCDD/F for disappearance from the paddy soils were estimated to be 10 to 20 years (mean: 17.3 years). The estimated PCDD/F mass balance using the above half-life during the past 40 years in paddy fields indicates that about 80% of PCDD/Fs have disappeared. The soil puddling (mechanically mixing of paddy soil with pooled irrigation water) is implied as one reason for the PCDD/F disappearance from paddy fields. However, as the amounts of PCDD/Fs added through the use of PCP and CNP were extremely large, PCDD/F concentrations in Japanese paddy soils will decrease gradually, and PCDD/F runoff from paddy fields to surrounding catchments will continue.