Distribution of Edentulism by the Macro Determinants of Health in 204 Countries and Territories: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: To carry out a comprehensive description of edentulism estimates by the macro determinants of health in 2000, 2010 and 2019 worldwide. METHODS: This ecological study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to describe the incidence rate, prevalence rate and years lived with disability (YLDs) rate due to edentulism by macro determinants of health (governance, macroeconomic policy, social policy, public policies, societal values), for 204 countries and territories. The estimates were reported as rates (cases/100,000 people), for people of both sexes aged 55 years or older. RESULTS: Countries belonging to the least privileged categories of the macro determinants showed the lowest prevalence rate, incidence rate, and YLD rate due to edentulism for all exposures. Countries with low government expenditure on health showed the lowest prevalence rate of edentulism in 2000 (18,972.1; 95 %CI 15,960.0 - 21,984.3) and 2010 (16,646.8; 95 %CI: 14,218.3-19,075.4) than those with high government expenditure on health in 2000 (25,196.6; 95 %CI: 23,226.9 - 27,166.2) and 2010 (21,014.7; 95 %CI: 19,317.9 - 22,711.5). Countries with low SDI showed the lowest YLDs in 2000 (321.0, 95 %CI: 260.1- 381.9), 2010 (332.0; 95 %CI: 267.7-396.3), and 2019 (331.6; 95 %CI: 266.6-396.5). CONCLUSION: The findings point to persistent inequalities in the distribution of edentulism between countries worldwide. The most privileged countries, with higher economic development, better governance, and better social and public policies, have shown higher rates of edentulism. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: This model must be reconsidered by advancing toward upstream and midstream strategies, beyond its conventional downstream clinical interventions.

Oral disorders among older Chileans: prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability / Prevalência, incidência e anos vividos com incapacidade por doenças bucais no Chile

OBJECTIVE: Prior epidemiological surveys revealed that Chile experiences a high burden of oral diseases. However, no prior study has reported estimates of untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism over a three-decade period for the country. Using estimates of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, the objective of this study is to report the trends of prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability (YLDs) due to untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism in Chilean older adults between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: Estimates of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism were produced for Chile, by age and sex, between 1990 and 2019, using Dismod-MR 2.1. Trends of oral disorders were analyzed using generalized linear regression models applying the Prais-Winsten method. RESULTS: Untreated dental caries and periodontal disease showed an increase in prevalence and YLDs, whereas edentulism prevalence, incidence, and YLDs decreased in all older adults age groups. The incidence of dental caries decreased in the younger groups and increased in the older age groups; while the incidence of periodontal disease increased in the younger and decreased in the older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the burden of oral diseases in older Chileans increased between 1990 and 2019. This was particularly relevant for untreated caries and periodontal disease. Future estimates of oral diseases burden in Chile require concerted efforts to produce national health surveys that incorporate oral diseases metrics. These estimates are essential to inform policy formulation, implementation and evaluation. (AU)

OBJETIVO: Pesquisas epidemiológicas anteriores revelaram que o Chile apresenta uma elevada carga de doenças bucais. No entanto, nenhum estudo anterior relatou estimativas de cárie dentária não tratada, periodontite e edentulismo ao longo de um período de três décadas para o país. Usando estimativas do Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, o objetivo deste estudo é relatar as tendências de prevalência, incidência e anos vividos com incapacidade (YLDs) devido a cárie dentária não tratada, periodontite e edentulismo em idosos chilenos entre 1990 e 2019. METODOLOGIA: Estimativas de prevalência, incidência e YLDs devido à cárie dentária, periodontite e edentulismo foram produzidas para o Chile, por idade e sexo, entre 1990 e 2019, usando o Dismod-MR 2.1. Tendências de distúrbios bucais foram analisadas usando modelos de regressão linear generalizada aplicando o método Prais-Winsten. RESULTADOS: A cárie dentária não tratada e a doença periodontal mostraram um aumento na prevalência e nos YLDs, enquanto a prevalência, incidência e YLDs do edentulismo diminuíram em todas as faixas etárias de idosos. A incidência de cárie dentária diminuiu nos grupos mais jovens e aumentou nos grupos etários mais velhos; enquanto a incidência de periodontite aumentou nos grupos mais jovens e diminuiu nos grupos etários mais velhos. CONCLUSÕES: No geral, a carga de doenças bucais em idosos chilenos aumentou entre 1990 e 2019. Isso foi particularmente relevante para cárie não tratada e periodontite. As estimativas futuras da carga de doenças bucais no Chile exigem esforços concentrados para produzir pesquisas nacionais de saúde que incorporem métricas de doenças bucais. Essas estimativas são essenciais para informar a formulação, implementação e avaliação de políticas. (AU)

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Spending on emergency care due to nontraumatic dental conditions in the United States, 1996 through 2016.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) use for oral health care is a growing problem in the United States. The objective of the study was to describe spending on ED visits due to nontraumatic dental conditions (NTDCs) in the United States and to quantify changes in spending and its drivers. METHODS: Spending estimates for ED visits due to NTDCs according to type of payer were analyzed for the period from 1996 through 2016 and estimates about the drivers of change were analyzed for the period from 1996 through 2013. NTDCs included caries, periodontitis, edentulism, and other oral disorders. Estimates were calculated according to age, sex, and type of payer (that is, public, private, and out of pocket), adjusted for inflation, and expressed in 2016 US dollars. The estimate of expenses was decomposed into 5 drivers for the period from 1996 through 2013 (that is, population, aging, prevalence of oral disorders, service use, and service price and intensity). RESULTS: The total change in spending from 1996 through 2016 amounted to $540 million, an increase of 216%. The drivers of changes in spending from 1996 through 2013 were price and intensity ($360 million), service use ($220 million), and population size ($68 million). CONCLUSIONS: Spending on ED visits due to NTDCs more than tripled during the study period, with price and intensity representing the main drivers. This increase was primarily in adults and paid via the public sector. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Possible solutions include strengthening the oral health care safety net, especially for the most vulnerable populations.

Group B streptococcus infection during pregnancy and infancy: estimates of regional and global burden.

BACKGROUND: Group B streptococcus (GBS) colonisation during pregnancy can lead to invasive GBS disease (iGBS) in infants, including meningitis or sepsis, with a high mortality risk. Other outcomes include stillbirths, maternal infections, and prematurity. There are data gaps, notably regarding neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI), especially after iGBS sepsis, which have limited previous global estimates. In this study, we aimed to address this gap using newly available multicountry datasets. METHODS: We collated and meta-analysed summary data, primarily identified in a series of systematic reviews published in 2017 but also from recent studies on NDI and stillbirths, using Bayesian hierarchical models, and estimated the burden for 183 countries in 2020 regarding: maternal GBS colonisation, iGBS cases and deaths in infants younger than 3 months, children surviving iGBS affected by NDI, and maternal iGBS cases. We analysed the proportion of stillbirths with GBS and applied this to the UN-estimated stillbirth risk per country. Excess preterm births associated with maternal GBS colonisation were calculated using meta-analysis and national preterm birth rates. FINDINGS: Data from the seven systematic reviews, published in 2017, that informed the previous burden estimation (a total of 515 data points) were combined with new data (17 data points) from large multicountry studies on neurodevelopmental impairment (two studies) and stillbirths (one study). A posterior median of 19·7 million (95% posterior interval 17·9-21·9) pregnant women were estimated to have rectovaginal colonisation with GBS in 2020. 231 800 (114 100-455 000) early-onset and 162 200 (70 200-394 400) late-onset infant iGBS cases were estimated to have occurred. In an analysis assuming a higher case fatality rate in the absence of a skilled birth attendant, 91 900 (44 800-187 800) iGBS infant deaths were estimated; in an analysis without this assumption, 58 300 (26 500-125 800) infant deaths from iGBS were estimated. 37 100 children who recovered from iGBS (14 600-96 200) were predicted to develop moderate or severe NDI. 40 500 (21 500-66 200) maternal iGBS cases and 46 200 (20 300-111 300) GBS stillbirths were predicted in 2020. GBS colonisation was also estimated to be potentially associated with considerable numbers of preterm births. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of the pregnancy-related GBS burden. The Bayesian approach enabled coherent propagation of uncertainty, which is considerable, notably regarding GBS-associated preterm births. Our findings on both the acute and long-term consequences of iGBS have public health implications for understanding the value of investment in maternal GBS immunisation and other preventive strategies. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Current dichotomous metrics obscure trends in severe and extreme child growth failure.

Historically, the prevalence of child growth failure (CGF) has been tracked dichotomously as the proportion of children more than 2 SDs below the median of the World Health Organization growth standards. However, this conventional "thresholding" approach fails to recognize child growth as a spectrum and obscures trends in populations with the highest rates of CGF. Our analysis presents the first ever estimates of entire distributions of HAZ, WHZ, and WAZ for each of 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 for children less than 5 years old by age group and sex. This approach reflects the continuous nature of CGF, allows us to more comprehensively assess shrinking or widening disparities over time, and reveals otherwise hidden trends that disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations.

Prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability due to oral disorders in Brazil: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological surveys revealed that Brazil has a high burden of oral diseases. However, no prior study has reported estimates of untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism over a three-decade period. The objective of this study is to report the trends of prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability (YLDs) due to untreated dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism in Brazil between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: Estimates of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism were produced for Brazil, by sex and age, between 1990 and 2019, using Dismod-MR 2.1, as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Trends of oral disorders were analyzed using generalized linear regression models applying the Prais-Winsten method. RESULTS: Almost 100 million Brazilians presented at least one oral disorder in 2019, which was equivalent to a prevalence of 45.3%. All oral diseases combined ranked eighth among all causes of disability, causing more than 970,000 YLDs. Untreated dental caries in primary teeth were estimated to affect 13.5 million children, and untreated dental caries in permanent teeth affected more than 52 million people. Periodontitis affected 29.5 million people, and edentulism affected almost 22 million. The generalized linear regression models revealed a trend of stability of oral disorders between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of oral diseases in Brazil is extremely high. Oral disorders, edentulism in particular, caused disability at levels that are comparable to other important chronic diseases.

Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality from birth defects worldwide. We report an overview of trends in CHD mortality in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Cause-specific CHD mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We utilised an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 0 to 4 to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. This approach allows for the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in the mortality trends, with the potential to identify disparities and treatment gaps in cardiac care. FINDINGS: CHD is the leading cause of deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in those under 20 years. Global CHD deaths in 2019 were 217,000 (95% uncertainty interval 177,000-262,000). There were 129 countries with at least 50 deaths. India, China, Pakistan, and Nigeria had the highest mortality, accounting for 39.7% of deaths globally. Between 1990 and 2019, the net drift of CHD mortality ranged from -2.41% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.55, -2.67) in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -0.62% per year (95% CI: -0.82, -0.42) in low-SDI countries. Globally, there was an emerging transition in the age distribution of deaths from paediatric to adult populations, except for an increasing trend of mortality in those aged 10-34 years in Mexico and Pakistan. During the past 30 years, favourable mortality reductions were generally found in most high-SDI countries like South Korea (net drift = -4.0% [95% CI -4.8 to -3.1] per year) and the United States (-2.3% [-2.5 to -2.0]), and also in many middle-SDI countries like Brazil (-2.7% [-3.1 to 2.4]) and South Africa (-2.5% [-3.2 to -1.8]). However, 52 of 129 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts ≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥-0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts amongst high- and high-middle-SDI countries, with the exceptions of Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan. 14 middle-SDI countries such as Ecuador and Mexico, and 16 low-middle-SDI countries including India and 20 low-SDI countries including Pakistan, had unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION: CHD mortality is a useful and accessible indicator of trends in the provision of congenital cardiac care both in early childhood and across later life. Improvements in the treatment of CHD should reduce the risk for successively younger cohorts and shift the risk for all age groups over time. Although there were gains in CHD mortality globally over the past three decades, unfavourable period and cohort effects were found in many countries, raising questions about adequacy of their health care for CHD patients across all age groups. These failings carry significant implications for the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal targets for under-5 years and NCD mortality. FUNDING: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81525002, 31971048, 82073573 to ZZ and HZ), Shanghai Outstanding Medical Academic Leader program (2019LJ22 to HZ), and Collaborative Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2020CXJQ01 to HZ), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the Global Burden of Disease Project (to NJK) and NHMRC fellowship administered through the University of Melbourne (to GCP).

Prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability due to oral disorders in Brazil: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION Epidemiological surveys revealed that Brazil has a high burden of oral diseases. However, no prior study has reported estimates of untreated dental caries, periodontitis, and edentulism over a three-decade period. The objective of this study is to report the trends of prevalence, incidence, and years-lived with disability (YLDs) due to untreated dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism in Brazil between 1990 and 2019. METHODS Estimates of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to dental caries in primary and permanent teeth, periodontitis, and edentulism were produced for Brazil, by sex and age, between 1990 and 2019, using Dismod-MR 2.1, as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Trends of oral disorders were analyzed using generalized linear regression models applying the Prais-Winsten method. RESULTS Almost 100 million Brazilians presented at least one oral disorder in 2019, which was equivalent to a prevalence of 45.3%. All oral diseases combined ranked eighth among all causes of disability, causing more than 970,000 YLDs. Untreated dental caries in primary teeth were estimated to affect 13.5 million children, and untreated dental caries in permanent teeth affected more than 52 million people. Periodontitis affected 29.5 million people, and edentulism affected almost 22 million. The generalized linear regression models revealed a trend of stability of oral disorders between 1990 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS The burden of oral diseases in Brazil is extremely high. Oral disorders, edentulism in particular, caused disability at levels that are comparable to other important chronic diseases.

Guidance for Systematic Integration of Undernutrition in Attributing Cause of Death in Children.

Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is increasingly being used to better understand causes of death in low-resource settings. Undernutrition (eg, wasting, stunting) is prevalent among children globally and yet not consistently coded or uniformly included on death certificates in MITS studies when present. Consistent and accurate attribution of undernutrition is fundamental to understanding its contribution to child deaths. In May 2020, members of the MITS Alliance Cause of Death Technical Working Group convened a panel of experts in public health, child health, nutrition, infectious diseases, and MITS to develop guidance for systematic integration of undernutrition, as assessed by anthropometry, in cause of death coding, including as part of the causal chain or as a contributing condition, in children <5 years of age. The guidance presented here will support MITS and other researchers, public health practitioners, and clinicians with a systematic approach to assigning and interpreting undernutrition in death certification.

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018.

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000-2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15-49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.

Evaluation of Hemoglobin Cutoff Levels to Define Anemia Among Healthy Individuals.

Importance: Anemia, defined as low hemoglobin (Hb) concentration insufficient to meet an individual's physiological needs, is the most common blood condition worldwide. Objective: To evaluate the current World Health Organization (WHO) Hb cutoffs for defining anemia among persons who are apparently healthy and to assess threshold validity with a biomarker of tissue iron deficiency and physiological indicator of erythropoiesis (soluble transferrin receptor [sTfR]) using multinational data. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, data were collected and evaluated from 30 household, population-based nutrition surveys of preschool children aged 6 to 59 months and nonpregnant women aged 15 to 49 years during 2005 to 2016 across 25 countries. Data analysis was performed from March 2020 to April 2021. Exposure: Anemia defined according to WHO Hb cutoffs. Main Outcomes and Measures: To define the healthy population, persons with iron deficiency (ferritin <12 ng/mL for children or <15 ng/mL for women), vitamin A deficiency (retinol-binding protein or retinol <20.1 µg/dL), inflammation (C-reactive protein >0.5 mg/dL or α-1-acid glycoprotein >1 g/L), or known malaria were excluded. Survey-specific, pooled Hb fifth percentile cutoffs were estimated. Among individuals with Hb and sTfR data, Hb-for-sTfR curve analysis was conducted to identify Hb inflection points that reflect tissue iron deficiency and increased erythropoiesis induced by anemia. Results: A total of 79 950 individuals were included in the original surveys. The final healthy sample was 13 445 children (39.9% of the original sample of 33 699 children; 6750 boys [50.2%]; mean [SD] age 32.9 [16.0] months) and 25 880 women (56.0% of the original sample of 46 251 women; mean [SD] age, 31.0 [9.5] years). Survey-specific Hb fifth percentile among children ranged from 7.90 g/dL (95% CI, 7.54-8.26 g/dL in Pakistan) to 11.23 g/dL (95% CI, 11.14-11.33 g/dL in the US), and among women from 8.83 g/dL (95% CI, 7.77-9.88 g/dL in Gujarat, India) to 12.09 g/dL (95% CI, 12.00-12.17 g/dL in the US). Intersurvey variance around the Hb fifth percentile was low (3.5% for women and 3.6% for children). Pooled fifth percentile estimates were 9.65 g/dL (95% CI, 9.26-10.04 g/dL) for children and 10.81 g/dL (95% CI, 10.35-11.27 g/dL) for women. The Hb-for-sTfR curve demonstrated curvilinear associations with sTfR inflection points occurring at Hb of 9.61 g/dL (95% CI, 9.55-9.67 g/dL) among children and 11.01 g/dL (95% CI, 10.95-11.09 g/dL) among women. Conclusions and Relevance: Current WHO cutoffs to define anemia are higher than the pooled fifth percentile of Hb among persons who are outwardly healthy and from nearly all survey-specific estimates. The lower proposed Hb cutoffs are statistically significant but also reflect compensatory increased erythropoiesis. More studies based on clinical outcomes could further confirm the validity of these Hb cutoffs for anemia.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic's Effect on Critical Care Resources and Health-Care Providers: A Global Survey.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has severely affected ICUs and critical care health-care providers (HCPs) worldwide. RESEARCH QUESTION: How do regional differences and perceived lack of ICU resources affect critical care resource use and the well-being of HCPs? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Between April 23 and May 7, 2020, we electronically administered a 41-question survey to interdisciplinary HCPs caring for patients critically ill with COVID-19. The survey was distributed via critical care societies, research networks, personal contacts, and social media portals. Responses were tabulated according to World Bank region. We performed multivariate log-binomial regression to assess factors associated with three main outcomes: limiting mechanical ventilation (MV), changes in CPR practices, and emotional distress and burnout. RESULTS: We included 2,700 respondents from 77 countries, including physicians (41%), nurses (40%), respiratory therapists (11%), and advanced practice providers (8%). The reported lack of ICU nurses was higher than that of intensivists (32% vs 15%). Limiting MV for patients with COVID-19 was reported by 16% of respondents, was lowest in North America (10%), and was associated with reduced ventilator availability (absolute risk reduction [ARR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.61-2.74). Overall, 66% of respondents reported changes in CPR practices. Emotional distress or burnout was high across regions (52%, highest in North America) and associated with being female (mechanical ventilation, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33), being a nurse (ARR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.13-1.53), reporting a shortage of ICU nurses (ARR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.33), reporting a shortage of powered air-purifying respirators (ARR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.55), and experiencing poor communication from supervisors (ARR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16-1.46). INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate variability in ICU resource availability and use worldwide. The high prevalence of provider burnout and its association with reported insufficient resources and poor communication from supervisors suggest a need for targeted interventions to support HCPs on the front lines.

Health-care Professionals' Perceptions of Critical Care Resource Availability and Factors Associated With Mental Well-being During Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Results from a US Survey.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on intensive care unit (ICU) providers' perceptions of resource availability and evaluating the factors associated with emotional distress/burnout can inform interventions to promote provider well-being. METHODS: Between 23 April and 7 May 2020, we electronically administered a survey to physicians, nurses, respiratory therapists (RTs), and advanced practice providers (APPs) caring for COVID-19 patients in the United States. We conducted a multivariate regression to assess associations between concerns, a reported lack of resources, and 3 outcomes: a primary outcome of emotional distress/burnout and 2 secondary outcomes of (1) fear that the hospital is unable to keep providers safe; and (2) concern about transmitting COVID-19 to their families/communities. RESULTS: We included 1651 respondents from all 50 states: 47% were nurses, 25% physicians, 17% RTs, and 11% APPs. Shortages of intensivists and ICU nurses were reported by 12% and 28% of providers, respectively. The largest supply restrictions reported were for powered air purifying respirators (56% reporting restricted availability). Provider concerns included worries about transmitting COVID-19 to their families/communities (66%), emotional distress/burnout (58%), and insufficient personal protective equipment (PPE; 40%). After adjustment, emotional distress/burnout was significantly associated with insufficient PPE access (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.55), stigma from community (aRR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.24-1.41), and poor communication with supervisors (aRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.21). Insufficient PPE access was the strongest predictor of feeling that the hospital is unable to keep providers safe and worries about transmitting infection to their families/communities. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing insufficient PPE access, poor communication from supervisors, and community stigma may improve provider mental well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Challenges for Estimating the Global Prevalence of Micronutrient Deficiencies and Related Disease Burden: A Case Study of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Information on the prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies is needed to determine related disease burden; underpin evidence-based advocacy; and design, deliver, and monitor safe, effective interventions. Assessing the global prevalence of deficiency requires a valid micronutrient status biomarker with an appropriate cutoff to define deficiency and relevant data from representative surveys across multiple locations and years. The Global Burden of Disease Study includes prevalence estimates for iodine, iron, zinc, and vitamin A deficiencies, for which recommended biomarkers and appropriate deficiency cutoffs exist. Because representative survey data are lacking, only retinol concentration is used to model vitamin A deficiency, and proxy indicators are used for the other micronutrients (goiter for iodine, hemoglobin for iron, and dietary food adequacy for zinc). Because of data limitations, complex statistical modeling is required to produce current estimates, relying on assumptions and proxies that likely understate the extent of micronutrient deficiencies and the consequent global health burden.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Impact of COVID-19 response on global surgical volumes: an ongoing observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether location-linked anaesthesiology calculator mobile application (app) data can serve as a qualitative proxy for global surgical case volumes and therefore monitor the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: We collected data provided by users of the mobile app "Anesthesiologist" during 1 October 2018-30 June 2020. We analysed these using RStudio and generated 7-day moving-average app use plots. We calculated country-level reductions in app use as a percentage of baseline. We obtained data on COVID-19 case counts from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. We plotted changing app use and COVID-19 case counts for several countries and regions. FINDINGS: A total of 100 099 app users within 214 countries and territories provided data. We observed that app use was reduced during holidays, weekends and at night, correlating with expected fluctuations in surgical volume. We observed that the onset of the pandemic prompted substantial reductions in app use. We noted strong cross-correlation between COVID-19 case count and reductions in app use in low- and middle-income countries, but not in high-income countries. Of the 112 countries and territories with non-zero app use during baseline and during the pandemic, we calculated a median reduction in app use to 73.6% of baseline. CONCLUSION: App data provide a proxy for surgical case volumes, and can therefore be used as a real-time monitor of the impact of COVID-19 on surgical capacity. We have created a dashboard for ongoing visualization of these data, allowing policy-makers to direct resources to areas of greatest need.