Fracture risk in type 2 diabetic patients: A clinical prediction tool based on a large population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: An increased fracture risk has been described as a complication of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Clinical prediction models for general population have a limited predictive accuracy for fractures in T2DM patients. The aim was to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool for the estimation of 5-year hip and major fracture risk in T2DM patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n = 51,143, aged 50-85, 57% men) was extracted from the Information System for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) database, containing computerized primary care records for >80% of the population of Catalonia, Spain (>6 million people). Patients were followed up from T2DM diagnosis until the earliest of death, transfer out, fracture, or end of study. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model the 5-year risk of hip and major fracture. Calibration and discrimination were assessed. Hip and major fracture incidence rates were 1.84 [95%CI 1.64 to 2.05] and 7.12 [95%CI 6.72 to 7.53] per 1,000 person-years, respectively. Both hip and major fracture prediction models included age, sex, previous major fracture, statins use, and calcium/vitamin D supplements; previous ischemic heart disease was also included for hip fracture and stroke for major fracture. Discrimination (0.81 for hip and 0.72 for major fracture) and calibration plots support excellent internal validity. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed prediction models have good discrimination and calibration for the estimation of both hip and major fracture risk in incident T2DM patients. These tools incorporate key T2DM macrovascular complications generally available in primary care electronic medical records, as well as more generic fracture risk predictors. Future work will focus on validation of these models in external cohorts.

Hip fracture as the tracer condition.

Hip fractures represent the most severe complication of osteoporosis from the perspectives of the patient, carer, health care system and society. Given the strong association with age, numbers are set to rise significantly in the next few decades despite evidence that the age adjusted rates in some countries are either plateauing or falling. Given the almost invariable need for inpatient admission, hospital administrative data for hip fractures remain a robust measure of number of hip fractures in the community and can be extrapolated to determine the total expected number of clinical fragility fractures from the same population. Both process and outcome standards have now been developed to benchmark clinical quality in the care of patients with hip fractures and fragility fractures at other sites.

Predictors of outcomes of total knee replacement surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To identify pre-operative predictors of patient-reported outcomes of primary total knee replacement (TKR) surgery. METHODS: The Elective Orthopaedic Centre database is a large prospective cohort of 1991 patients receiving primary TKR in south-west London from 2005 to 2008. The primary outcome is the 6-month post-operative Oxford Knee Score (OKS). To classify whether patients had a clinically important outcome, we calculated a patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) for the 6-month OKS related to satisfaction with surgery. Potential predictor variables were pre-operative OKS, age, sex, BMI, deprivation, surgical side, diagnosis, operation type, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade and EQ5D anxiety/depression. Regression modelling was used to identify predictors of outcome. RESULTS: The strongest determinants of outcome include pre-operative pain/function-those with less severe pre-operative disease obtain the best outcomes; diagnosis in relation to pain outcome-patients with RA did better than those with OA; deprivation-those living in poorer areas had worse outcomes; and anxiety/depression-worse pre-operative anxiety/depression led to worse pain. Differences were observed between predictors of pain and functional outcomes. Diagnosis of RA and anxiety/depression were associated with pain, whereas age and gender were specifically associated with function. BMI was not a clinically important predictor of outcome. CONCLUSION: This study identified clinically important predictors of attained pain/function post-TKR. Predictors of pain were not necessarily the same as functional outcomes, which may be important in the context of a patient's expectations of surgery. Other predictive factors need to be identified to improve our ability to recognize patients at risk of poor TKR outcomes.

Anatomical distribution of synovitis in knee osteoarthritis and its association with joint effusion assessed on non-enhanced and contrast-enhanced MRI.

PURPOSE: To describe the anatomical distribution of synovitis and its association with joint effusion on non-enhanced and contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Baseline MRI was performed at 1.5T using axial proton density (PD)-weighted (w) fat suppressed (fs) and axial and sagittal T1-w fs CE sequences. Synovial enhancement was scored in nine articular subregions. Maximum synovial enhancement was grouped as absent (0), equivocal (1) and definite (2 and 3). Effusion was scored from 0 to 3 on the axial sequences. We described the anatomical distribution of synovitis, its association with effusion and compared assessment of effusion on T1-w fs CE and PD fs sequences. RESULTS: 111 subjects were included and examined by MRI. 89.2% of knees exhibited at least one subregion with a minimum grade 2 and 39.6% at the maximum of a grade 3. The commonest sites for definite synovitis were posterior to the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) in 71.2% and in the suprapatellar region in 59.5% of all knees. On T1-w fs CE, 73.0% of knees showed any effusion. Definite synovitis in at least one location was present in 96.3% knees with an effusion and in 70.0% without an effusion. Higher grades of effusion were scored on the PD fs sequence. CONCLUSION: Definite synovitis was present in the majority of knees with or without effusion with the commonest sites being posterior to the PCL and in the suprapatellar recess. Joint effusion as measured on PD fs images does not only represent effusion but also synovial thickening.