Epidemiology and costs of dengue in Thailand: A systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the fastest-spreading vector-borne viral disease worldwide. In Thailand, dengue is endemic and is associated with a high socioeconomic burden. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess and describe the epidemiological and economic burden of dengue in Thailand. METHODS: Epidemiological and economic studies published in English and Thai between 2011-2019 and 2009-2019, respectively, were searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and Evidence-Based Medicines reviews databases. Reports published by the National Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and other grey literature sources were also reviewed. Identified studies were screened according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Extracted data were descriptively summarised and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 155 publications were included in the review (39 journal articles and 116 grey literature). Overall, dengue incidence varied yearly, with the highest rates per 100,000 population in 2013 (dengue fever (DF) 136.6, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) 100.9, dengue shock syndrome (DSS) 3.58) and 2015 (DF 133.1, DHF 87.4, DSS 2.14). Peak incidence coincided with the monsoon season, and annual mortality was highest for DSS, particularly in the age group 15-24-year-olds. The highest dengue incidence rates were reported in children (10-14-year-olds) and young adults (15-24-year-olds), irrespective of dengue case definition. Economic and societal burdens are extensive, with the average cost per case ranging from USD 41 to USD 261, total cost per year estimated at USD 440.3 million, and an average of 7.6 workdays lost for DHF and 6.6 days for DF. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological, economic, and societal burden of dengue in Thailand is high and underreported due to gaps in national surveillance data. The use of expansion factors (EFs) is recommended to understand the true incidence of dengue and cost-benefit of control measures. Furthermore, as dengue is often self-managed and underreported, lost school and workdays result in substantial underestimation of the true economic and societal burden of dengue. The implementation of integrated strategies, including vaccination, is critical to reduce the disease burden and may help alleviate health disparities and equity challenges posed by dengue.

Epidemiology (2012-2019) and costs (2009-2019) of dengue in Malaysia: a systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVES: A systematic literature review was conducted to assess the epidemiology and economic burden of dengue in Malaysia. METHODS: Embase, MEDLINE, Evidence-Based Reviews databases, and gray literature sources were searched for English and Malay studies and surveillance reports on the epidemiology (between 2012 and 2019) and costs (between 2009 and 2019) of dengue in Malaysia. Independent screening of titles/abstracts, followed by full texts was performed using prespecified criteria. RESULTS: A total of 198 publications were included (55 peer-reviewed and 143 gray literature). Dengue incidence has been increasing in recent years, with 130,101 cases (dengue fever 129,578 cases; dengue hemorrhagic fever 523 cases) reported in 2019, which is the highest since 2012. All dengue virus serotypes co-circulated between 2004 and 2017, and major outbreaks occurred in a cyclical pattern, often associated with a change in the predominant circulating serotype. Economic impacts are substantial, including the societal impact of lost work (7.2-8.8 days) and school days (3.2-4.1 days) due to dengue. CONCLUSION: The rising incidence and high cost of dengue, coupled with overlapping diseases, will likely result in further pressures on the healthcare system. To appropriately mitigate and control dengue, it is critical to implement integrated strategies, including vaccination, to reduce the burden of dengue.

Epidemiology and costs of dengue in Brazil: a systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVES: Dengue infection is a growing public health problem, with the number of reported cases increasing in the Americas and worldwide. This review characterized the epidemiological and economic burden of dengue in Brazil. METHODS: Embase, MEDLINE, evidence-based review databases, and gray literature sources were searched for published literature and surveillance reports on epidemiology (between 2000 and 2019) and costs (between 2009 and 2019) of dengue in Brazil. Studies were included if they reported data on incidence, seroprevalence, serotype distribution, expansion factors, hospitalization, mortality, or costs. Data were summarized descriptively and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 344 publications were included (167 peer-reviewed and 177 gray literature). Dengue outbreaks increased in incidence and frequency, with the highest incidence observed in 2015 at 807 cases per 100,000 population. Outbreaks were related to alternating predominant serotypes. Dengue was more frequent in young adults (aged 20-39 years) and in the Midwest. Cost and societal impacts are substantial and varied across regions, age, and public/private delivery of healthcare services. CONCLUSION: The burden of dengue in Brazil is increasing and likely underestimated. Therefore, developing and implementing new strategies, including vaccination, is essential to reduce the disease burden.

How much will it cost to eradicate lymphatic filariasis? An analysis of the financial and economic costs of intensified efforts against lymphatic filariasis.

INTRODUCTION: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), a neglected tropical disease (NTD) preventable through mass drug administration (MDA), is one of six diseases deemed possibly eradicable. Previously we developed one LF elimination scenario, which assumes MDA scale-up to continue in all countries that have previously undertaken MDA. In contrast, our three previously developed eradication scenarios assume all LF endemic countries will undertake MDA at an average (eradication I), fast (eradication II), or instantaneous (eradication III) rate of scale-up. In this analysis we use a micro-costing model to project the financial and economic costs of each of these scenarios in order to provide evidence to decision makers about the investment required to eliminate and eradicate LF. METHODOLOGY/KEY FINDINGS: Costing was undertaken from a health system perspective, with all results expressed in 2012 US dollars (USD). A discount rate of 3% was applied to calculate the net present value of future costs. Prospective NTD budgets from LF endemic countries were reviewed to preliminarily determine activities and resources necessary to undertake a program to eliminate LF at a country level. In consultation with LF program experts, activities and resources were further reviewed and a refined list of activities and necessary resources, along with their associated quantities and costs, were determined and grouped into the following activities: advocacy and communication, capacity strengthening, coordination and strengthening partnerships, data management, ongoing surveillance, monitoring and supervision, drug delivery, and administration. The costs of mapping and undertaking transmission assessment surveys and the value of donated drugs and volunteer time were also accounted for. Using previously developed scenarios and deterministic estimates of MDA duration, the financial and economic costs of interrupting LF transmission under varying rates of MDA scale-up were then modelled using a micro-costing approach. The elimination scenario, which includes countries that previously undertook MDA, is estimated to cost 929 million USD (95% Credible Interval: 884m-972m). Proceeding to eradication is anticipated to require a higher financial investment, estimated at 1.24 billion USD (1.17bn-1.30bn) in the eradication III scenario (immediate scale-up), with eradication II (intensified scale-up) projected at 1.27 billion USD (1.21bn-1.33bn), and eradication I (slow scale-up) estimated at 1.29 billion USD (1.23bn-1.34bn). The economic costs of the eradication III scenario are estimated at approximately 7.57 billion USD (7.12bn-7.94bn), while the elimination scenario is projected to have an economic cost of 5.21 billion USD (4.91bn-5.45bn). Countries in the AFRO region will require the greatest investment to reach elimination or eradication, but also stand to gain the most in cost savings. Across all scenarios, capacity strengthening and advocacy and communication represent the greatest financial costs, whereas mapping, post-MDA surveillance, and administration comprise the least. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Though challenging to implement, our results indicate that financial and economic savings are greatest under the eradication III scenario. Thus, if eradication for LF is the objective, accelerated scale-up is projected to be the best investment.

Modelling the health impact and cost-effectiveness of lymphatic filariasis eradication under varying levels of mass drug administration scale-up and geographic coverage.

BACKGROUND: A global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (GPELF) is underway, yet two key programmatic features are currently still lacking: (1) the extension of efforts to all lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic countries, and (2) the expansion of geographic coverage of mass drug administration (MDA) within countries. For varying levels of scale-up of MDA, we assessed the health benefits and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) associated with LF eradication, projected the potential savings due to decreased morbidity management needs, and estimated potential household productivity gains as a result of reduced LF-related morbidity. METHODS: We extended an LF transmission model to track hydrocele and lymphoedema incidence in order to obtain estimates of the disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted due to scaling up MDA over a period of 50 years. We then estimated the ICERs and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves associated with different rates of MDA scale-up. Health systems savings were estimated by considering the averted morbidity, treatment-seeking behaviour and morbidity management costs. Gains in worker productivity were estimated by multiplying estimated working days lost as a result of morbidity with country-specific per-worker agricultural wages. RESULTS: Our projections indicate that a massive scaling-up of MDA could lead to 4.38 million incremental DALYs averted over a 50-year time horizon compared to a scenario which mirrors current efforts against LF. In comparison to maintaining the current rate of progress against LF, massive scaling-up of MDA-pursuing LF eradication as soon as possible-was most likely to be cost-effective above a willingness to pay threshold of US$71.5/DALY averted. Intensified MDA scale-up was also associated with lower ICERs. Furthermore, this could result in health systems savings up to US$483 million. Extending coverage to all endemic areas could generate additional economic benefits through gains in worker productivity between US$3.4 and US$14.4 billion. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to ethical and political motivations for scaling-up MDA rapidly, this analysis provides economic support for increasing the intensity of MDA programmes.

What Is Needed to Eradicate Lymphatic Filariasis? A Model-Based Assessment on the Impact of Scaling Up Mass Drug Administration Programs.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease for which more than a billion people in 73 countries are thought to be at-risk. At a global level, the efforts against LF are designed as an elimination program. However, current efforts appear to aim for elimination in some but not all endemic areas. With the 2020 goal of elimination looming, we set out to develop plausible scale-up scenarios to reach global elimination and eradication. We predict the duration of mass drug administration (MDA) necessary to reach local elimination for a variety of transmission archetypes using an existing model of LF transmission, estimate the number of treatments required for each scenario, and consider implications of rapid scale-up. METHODOLOGY: We have defined four scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. For each scenario, country-specific simulations and calculations were performed that took into account the pre-intervention transmission intensity, the different vector genera, drug regimen, achieved level of population coverage, previous progress toward elimination, and potential programmatic delays due to mapping, operations, and administration. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our results indicate that eliminating LF by 2020 is unlikely. If MDA programs are drastically scaled up and expanded, the final round of MDA for LF eradication could be delivered in 2028 after 4,159 million treatments. However, if the current rate of scale-up is maintained, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF may not occur until 2050. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Rapid scale-up of MDA will decrease the amount of time and treatments required to reach LF eradication. It may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure is likely to increase with extended program duration.

Predictors of first follow-up HIV testing for couples' voluntary HIV counseling and testing in Ndola, Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: We describe predictors of first follow-up testing for concordant negative and discordant couples seeking joint voluntary HIV counseling and testing in Ndola, Zambia, where cohabiting couples account for an estimated two-thirds of incident HIV infections. METHODS: Demographic and serostatus data were collected from couples' voluntary HIV testing and counseling and follow-up testing services implemented in government clinics. We calculated follow-up testing rates by serostatus and compared rates before and after the introduction of a Good Health Package (GHP). RESULTS: The follow-up testing rate from May 2011 to December 2012 was 12.2% for concordant negative (M-F-) couples and 24.5% for discordant (M+F- or M-F+) couples. Significant predictors of follow-up testing in multivariate analyses included increasing age of the man [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.02 per year] and the woman (aOR = 1.02 per year), and either partner being HIV+ (aOR = 2.57 for HIV+ man, aOR = 1.89 for HIV+ woman). The man (aOR = 1.29) and the couple (aOR = 1.22) having been previously tested for HIV were predictive of follow-up testing among concordant negative couples. Introduction of a GHP increased follow-up testing among discordant (aOR = 2.93) and concordant negative (aOR = 2.06) couples. CONCLUSIONS: A low-cost GHP, including prevention, screening, and treatment for common causes of morbidity and mortality resulted in increased follow-up testing rates among HIV discordant and concordant negative couples. Overall follow-up testing rates remain low, and efforts to increase these rates are necessary to ensure linkage to combination prevention, reduce HIV transmission within couples, and identify seroconversions promptly. Further investigation of low-cost sustainable incentives and other factors influencing follow-up HIV testing for couples is needed.