Estimating the number of probable new SARS-CoV-2 infections among tested subjects from the number of confirmed cases.

OBJECTIVES: In most African countries, confirmed COVID-19 case counts underestimate the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infection cases. We propose a multiplying factor to approximate the number of biologically probable new infections from the number of confirmed cases. METHODS: Each of the first thousand suspect (or alert) cases recorded in South Kivu (DRC) between 29 March and 29 November 2020 underwent a RT-PCR test and an IgM and IgG serology. A latent class model and a Bayesian inference method were used to estimate (i) the incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection using RT-PCR and IgM test results, (ii) the prevalence using RT-PCR, IgM and IgG test results; and, (iii) the multiplying factor (ratio of the incidence proportion on the proportion of confirmed -RT-PCR+- cases). RESULTS: Among 933 alert cases with complete data, 218 (23%) were RT-PCR+; 434 (47%) IgM+; 464 (~ 50%) RT-PCR+, IgM+, or both; and 647 (69%) either IgG + or IgM+. The incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated at 58% (95% credibility interval: 51.8-64), its prevalence at 72.83% (65.68-77.89), and the multiplying factor at 2.42 (1.95-3.01). CONCLUSIONS: In monitoring the pandemic dynamics, the number of biologically probable cases is also useful. The multiplying factor helps approximating it.

Blood pressure in the Congolese adult population of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo: Preliminary results from the Bukavu Observ Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Providing factual data about non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is of utmost importance in the sub-Saharan African countries where NCDs and arterial hypertension data remain scattered, scarce, and less representative given the region's heterogeneous population. Within this context, the interuniversity cooperation VLIR-UOS/Catholic University of Bukavu (Democratic Republic of Congo) has established an integrated project for monitoring hypertension and cardiovascular risk factors in the population of South Kivu. The aim of the study was to present the basic results of the determinants of blood pressure in the cohort studied. METHODS: In 2013 and 2014, trained interviewers collected the anthropometric parameters, blood pressure, and medical history of 7405 adults (3060 in urban areas and 4345 in rural areas) including 3162 males and 4243 females; the cohort is expected to be followed for 9 years. RESULTS: The average age of the entire group was 33.0±16.7 years. Compared to men, women had significantly higher obesity indices (P<0.0001), lower blood pressure between 20 and 39 years of age (P<0.0001) but higher blood pressure at 60 years of age and older (P<0.0001). Blood pressure was positively correlated with body mass index, waist circumference, and paradoxically with consumption of vegetables, but negatively correlated with the consumption of fruit, intense physical activity, and relaxation at home. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that a cohort study is feasible in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The factual data analysis can contribute to health policy orientation and setting up of preventive measures. Since most correlated risk factors are preventable, recommendations can already be made in the fight against high blood pressure in this population.

[Knowledge of the general population about hypertension and diabetes mellitus in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo]. / Connaissances de la population générale sur l'hypertension artérielle et le diabète sucré au Sud-Kivu, République démocratique du Congo.

BACKGROUND: In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country in a post-conflict period, high priority cannot be given to non-communicable diseases other than to emergencies. This certainly involves inadequacy in raising awareness for prevention of these diseases. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the level of knowledge of the Congolese general population on hypertension and diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Responses to a questionnaire from 3% of the general population aged 15 and older in the city of Bukavu and two rural areas: Hombo and Walungu (South Kivu, eastern DRC), recruited after stratification by ward in the city of Bukavu and a group of prone villages were expected. The questions focused on identification, testing, causes, complications and treatment of hypertension and diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Of the 7770 respondents, screening for hypertension and diabetes mellitus affected only 14.9% and 7.3% of subjects respectively. Knowledge of these two conditions was generally low in the general population, although better in the subgroups of patients and those with higher socioeconomic level (P<0.05). Use of the medias was also associated with better knowledge (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that knowledge about hypertension and diabetes mellitus and their testing in South Kivu is low. It is imperative that the Congolese government includes non-communicable diseases in its priorities of the millennium. Similarly, the WHO should actively contribute to screening for them in low-income countries.