ABSTRACT
SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have occurred on several nautical vessels, driven by the high-density contact networks on these ships. Optimal strategies for prevention and control that account for realistic contact networks are needed. We developed a network-based transmission model for SARS-CoV-2 on the Diamond Princess outbreak to characterize transmission dynamics and to estimate the epidemiological impact of outbreak control and prevention measures. This model represented the dynamic multi-layer network structure of passenger-passenger, passengercrew, and crew-crew contacts, both before and after the large-scale network lockdown imposed on the ship in response to the disease outbreak. Model scenarios evaluated variations in the timing of the network lockdown, reduction in contact intensity within the sub-networks, and diagnosis-based case isolation on outbreak prevention. We found that only extreme restrictions in contact patterns during network lockdown and idealistic clinical response scenarios could avert a major COVID-19 outbreak. Contact network changes associated with adequate outbreak prevention were the restriction of passengers to their cabins, with limited passenger-crew contacts. Clinical response strategies required for outbreak prevention included early mass screening with an ideal PCR test (100% sensitivity) and immediate case isolation upon diagnosis. Public health restrictions on optional leisure activities like these should be considered until longer-term effective solutions such as a COVID-19 vaccine become widely available.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundCOVID-19 outbreak is spreading globally. Although the risk of infection in the US is currently low, it is important to understand the public perception of risk and trust in sources of information to better inform public health messaging. In this study, we surveyed the adult US population to understand their risk perceptions about the COVID-19 outbreak. Methods and FindingsWe used an online platform to survey 718 adults in the US in early February 2020 using a questionnaire that we developed. Our sample was fairly similar to the general adult US population in terms of age, gender, race, ethnicity and education. We found that 69% of the respondents wanted the scientific/public health leadership (either the CDC Director or NIH Director) to lead the US response to COVID-19 outbreak as compared to 14% who wanted the political leadership (either the president or the Congress) to lead the response. Risk perception was low (median score of 5 out of 10) with the respondents trusting health professionals and health officials for information on COVID-19. Majority of the respondents were in favor of strict infection prevention policies to control the outbreak. ConclusionGiven our results, the public health/scientific leadership should be at the forefront of the COVID-19 response to promote trust.
