Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation and Health Care Costs in Older Community-Dwelling Adults: Importance of Functional Impairment and Frailty.

BACKGROUND: Low neighborhood socioeconomic status is associated with adverse health outcomes, but its association with health care costs in older adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association of neighborhood Area Deprivation Index (ADI) with total, inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility (SNF), and home health care (HHC) costs among older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, and determine whether these associations are explained by multimorbidity, phenotypic frailty, or functional impairments. DESIGN: Four prospective cohort studies linked with each other and with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (mean age 79.2 years, 52.9% female). MAIN MEASURES: ADI of participant residence census tract, Hierarchical Conditions Category multimorbidity score, self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing four activities of daily living), and frailty phenotype. Total, inpatient, outpatient, post-acute SNF, and HHC costs (US 2020 dollars) for 36 months after the index examination. KEY RESULTS: Mean incremental annualized total health care costs adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex increased with ADI ($3317 [95% CI 1274 to 5360] for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile, and overall p-value for ADI variable 0.009). The incremental cost for the most deprived vs least deprived ADI quintile was increasingly attenuated after separate adjustment for multimorbidity ($2407 [95% CI 416 to 4398], overall ADI p-value 0.066), frailty phenotype ($1962 [95% CI 11 to 3913], overall ADI p-value 0.22), or functional impairments ($1246 [95% CI -706 to 3198], overall ADI p-value 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Total health care costs are higher for older community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries residing in the most socioeconomically deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas. This association was not significant after accounting for the higher prevalence of phenotypic frailty and functional impairments among residents of socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods.

Incremental Health Care Costs of Self-Reported Functional Impairments and Phenotypic Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older Adults : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care systems need better strategies to identify older adults at risk for costly care to select target populations for interventions to reduce health care burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with incremental health care costs after accounting for claims-based predictors. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Index examinations (2002 to 2011) of 4 prospective cohort studies linked with Medicare claims. PARTICIPANTS: 8165 community-dwelling fee-for-service beneficiaries (4318 women, 3847 men). MEASUREMENTS: Weighted (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Condition Category index) and unweighted (count of conditions) multimorbidity and frailty indicators derived from claims. Self-reported functional impairments (difficulty performing 4 activities of daily living) and frailty phenotype (operationalized using 5 components) derived from cohort data. Health care costs ascertained for 36 months after index examinations. RESULTS: Average annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) were $13 906 among women and $14 598 among men. After accounting for claims-based indicators, average incremental costs of functional impairments versus no impairment in women (men) were $3328 ($2354) for 1 impairment increasing to $7330 ($11 760) for 4 impairments; average incremental costs of phenotypic frailty versus robust in women (men) were $8532 ($6172). Mean predicted costs adjusted for claims-based indicators in women (men) varied by both functional impairments and the frailty phenotype ranging from $8124 ($11 831) among robust persons without impairments to $18 792 ($24 713) among frail persons with 4 impairments. Compared with the model with claims-derived indicators alone, this model resulted in more accurate cost prediction for persons with multiple impairments or phenotypic frailty. LIMITATION: Cost data limited to participants enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service program. CONCLUSION: Self-reported functional impairments and phenotypic frailty are associated with higher subsequent health care expenditures in community-dwelling beneficiaries after accounting for several claims-based indicators of costs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Design, methods, and recruitment outcomes of the Veterans' Pain Care Organizational Improvement Comparative Effectiveness (VOICE) study.

The Veterans' Pain Care Organizational Improvement Comparative Effectiveness (VOICE) study is a 12-month pragmatic randomized comparative effectiveness trial conducted at ten United States Veterans Affairs (VA) health care sites. The overall goal was to test interventions to improve pain while reducing opioid use among VA patients with moderate-severe chronic pain despite treatment with long-term opioid therapy (LTOT). Aims were 1) to compare lower-intensity telecare collaborative pain management (TCM) versus higher-intensity integrated pain team management (IPT), and 2) to test the option of switching to buprenorphine (versus no option) in a high-dose subgroup. Recruitment challenges included secular trends in opioid prescribing and the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were recruited over 3.5 years. Of 6966 potentially eligible patients, 4731 (67.9%) were contacted for telephone eligibility interview; of those contacted, 3398 (71.8%) declined participation, 359 (7.6%) were ineligible, 821 (24.2%) enrolled, and 820 (24.1%) were randomized. The most common reason for declining was satisfaction with pain care (n = 731). The most common reason for ineligibility was not having moderate-severe chronic pain (n = 110). Compared with the potentially eligible population, randomized participants were slightly younger, more often female, had similar prescribed opioids, and had similar or higher rates of pain and mental health diagnoses. The enrolled patient number was lower than the original target, but sufficient to power planned analyses. In conclusion, the VOICE trial enrolled a diverse sample similar to the population of VA patients receiving LTOT. Results will add substantially to limited existing evidence for interventions to improve pain while reducing opioid use. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03026790.

Characteristics Associated With 5-Year Fracture Risk Versus 5-Year Mortality Risk Among Late-Life Men.

BACKGROUND: Identifying late-life men who might benefit from treatment to prevent fracture is challenging given high mortality. Our objective was to evaluate risks of clinical fracture, hip fracture, and mortality prior to fracture among men aged at least 80 years. METHODS: Study participants included 3 145 community-dwelling men (mean [standard deviation] age 83 [2.8] years) from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. We used separate multivariable Fine-Gray competing risk models with prespecified risk factors (age, hip bone mineral density [BMD], recent fracture [<5 years], fall history [previous year], and multimorbidity [# conditions]) to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios and absolute 5-year risks of any clinical fracture and mortality prior to clinical fracture. Secondary analysis considered a hip fracture. RESULTS: There were 414 incident clinical fractures and 595 deaths without prior fracture within 5 years. BMD, fall history, and recent fracture were strong predictors of clinical fracture. Age and multimorbidity were strong predictors of mortality before fracture. After accounting for competing risks, age, BMD, and fall history were each associated with both risks of hip fracture and mortality before hip fracture. Model discrimination varied from 0.65 (mortality before fracture) to 0.79 (hip fracture). Estimated mortality differed substantially among men with similar clinical fracture risk due to a modest correlation between fracture risk and competing mortality risk = 0.37. CONCLUSION: In late-life men, strong risk factors for clinical fracture and hip fracture include fall history, BMD, and recent fracture. Osteoporosis drug treatment decisions may be further enhanced by consideration of fracture risk versus overall life expectancy.

Life-space mobility and healthcare costs and utilization in older men.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of life-space score with subsequent healthcare costs and utilization. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Osteoporotic Fracture in Men [MrOS]). SETTING: Six U.S. sites. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1555 community-dwelling men (mean age 79.3 years; 91.5% white, non-Hispanic) participating in the MrOS Year 7 (Y7) examination linked with their Medicare claims data. MEASUREMENTS: Life-space during the past month was assessed as 0 (daily restriction to one's bedroom) to 120 (daily trips outside one's town without assistance) and categorized (0-40, 41-60, 61-80, 81-100, 101-120). Total annualized direct healthcare costs and utilization were ascertained during 36 months after the Y7 examination. RESULTS: Mean total annualized costs (2020 U.S. dollars) steadily increased across category of life-space score, from $7954 (standard deviation [SD] 16,576) among men with life-space scores of 101-120 to $26,430 (SD 28,433) among men with life-space scores of 0-40 (p < 0.001). After adjustment for demographics, men with a life-space score of 0-40 versus men with a life-space score of 101-120 had greater mean total costs (cost ratio [CR] = 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.84-3.45) and greater risk of subsequent hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] 4.72, 95% CI 2.61-8.53) and skilled nursing facility (SNF) stay (OR 7.32, 95% CI 3.65-14.66). Life-space score was no longer significantly associated with total healthcare costs (CR for 0-40 vs 101-120 1.29; 95% CI 0.91-1.84) and hospitalization (OR 1.76, 95% CI 0.89-3.51) after simultaneous consideration of demographics, medical factors, self-reported health and function, and the frailty phenotype; the association of life-space with SNF stay remained significant (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.26-6.49). CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the importance of function and mobility in predicting future healthcare costs and suggest the simple and convenient life-space score may in part capture risks from major geriatric domains and improve identification of older, community-dwelling men likely to require costly care.

Joint Associations of Prevalent Radiographic Vertebral Fracture and Abdominal Aortic Calcification With Incident Hip, Major Osteoporotic, and Clinical Vertebral Fractures.

Prevalent vertebral fractures (PVFx) and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) are both associated with incident fractures and can be ascertained on the same lateral spine images, but their joint association with incident fractures is unclear. Our objective was to estimate the individual and joint associations of PVFx and AAC with incident major osteoporotic, hip, and clinical vertebral fractures in 5365 older men enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study, using Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards models to account for competing mortality. PVFx (Genant SQ grade 2 or 3) and 24-point AAC score were ascertained on baseline lateral spine radiographs. Self-reports of incident fractures were solicited every 4 months and confirmed by review of clinical radiographic reports. Compared with men without PVFx and AAC-24 score 0 or 1, the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) for incident major osteoporotic fracture was 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.69) among men with AAC-24 score ≥2 alone, 1.71 (95% CI 1.37-2.14) for men with PVFx alone, and 2.35 (95% CI 1.75-3.16) for men with both risk factors, after accounting for conventional risk factors and competing mortality. Wald statistics showed improved prediction model performance by including both risk factors compared with including only AAC (chi-square = 17.3, p < .001) or including only PVFx (chi-square = 8.5, p = .036). Older men with both PVFx and a high level of AAC are at higher risk of incident major osteoporotic fracture than men with either risk factor alone. Assessing prevalent radiographic vertebral fracture and AAC on the same lateral spine images may improve prediction of older men who will have an incident major osteoporotic fracture, even after accounting for traditional fracture risk factors and competing mortality. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Height Loss in Old Age and Fracture Risk Among Men in Late Life: A Prospective Cohort Study.

To assess the association of height loss in old age with subsequent risk of hip and any clinical fracture in men late in life while accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 3491 community-dwelling men (mean age 79.2 years). Height loss between baseline and follow-up (mean 7.0 years between examinations) was categorized as <1 cm (referent group), ≥1 to <2 cm, ≥2 to <3 cm, and ≥3 cm. Men were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports) and ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates). Competing risk methods were used to estimate absolute probabilities of fracture outcomes by height loss category and calculate adjusted risks of fracture outcomes by height loss. During an average of 7.8 years, 158 (4.5%) men experienced a hip fracture and 1414 (40.5%) died before experiencing this event. The absolute 10-year probability of fracture events accounting for the competing risk of death increased with greater height loss. For example, the hip fracture probability was 2.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-3.8%) among men with height loss <1 cm increasing to 11.6% (95% CI 8.0-16.0%) among men with height loss ≥3 cm. After adjustment for demographics, fall history, multimorbidity, baseline height, weight change, and femoral neck bone mineral density and considering competing mortality risk, men with height loss ≥3 cm versus <1 cm had a nearly twofold (subdistribution hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94, 95% CI 1.06-3.55) higher risk of hip fracture and a 1.4-fold (subdistribution HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.91) increased risk of any clinical fracture. Height loss ≥3 cm in men during old age was associated with higher subsequent risk of clinical fractures, especially hip fractures, even after accounting for the competing risk of death and traditional skeletal and non-skeletal risk factors. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Frailty Phenotype and Healthcare Costs and Utilization in Older Men.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of the frailty phenotype with subsequent healthcare costs and utilization. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Osteoporotic Fracture in Men [MrOS]). SETTING: Six US sites. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,514 community-dwelling men (mean age = 79.3 years) participating in the MrOS Year 7 (Y7) examination linked with their Medicare claims data. MEASUREMENTS: At Y7, the frailty phenotype was operationalized using five components and categorized as robust, pre-frail, or frail. Multimorbidity and a frailty indicator (approximating the deficit accumulation index) were derived from claims data. Functional limitations were assessed by asking about difficulty performing instrumental activities of daily living. Total direct healthcare costs and utilization were ascertained during 36 months following Y7. RESULTS: Mean of total annualized costs (2018 dollars) was $5,707 (standard deviation [SD] = 8,800) among robust, $8,964 (SD = 18,156) among pre-frail, and $20,027 (SD = 27,419) among frail men. Compared with robust men, frail men (cost ratio [CR] = 2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.88-2.93) and pre-frail men (CR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.11-1.48) incurred greater total costs after adjustment for demographics, multimorbidity, and cognitive function. Associations of phenotypic pre-frailty and frailty with higher total costs were somewhat attenuated but persisted after further consideration of functional limitations and a claims-based frailty indicator. Each individual frailty component was also associated with higher total costs. Frail vs robust men had higher odds of hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] = 2.62; 95% CI = 1.75-3.91) and skilled nursing facility (SNF) stay (OR = 3.36; 95% CI = 1.83-6.20). A smaller but significant effect of the pre-frail category on SNF stay was present. CONCLUSION: Phenotypic pre-frailty and frailty were associated with higher subsequent total healthcare costs in older community-dwelling men after accounting for a claims-based frailty indicator, functional limitations, multimorbidity, cognitive impairment, and demographics. Assessment of the frailty phenotype or individual components such as slowness may improve identification of older community-dwelling adults at risk for costly extensive care.

Self-reported poor sleep on multiple dimensions is associated with higher total health care costs in older men.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association of self-reported poor sleep in multiple dimensions with health care costs in older men. METHODS: Participants were 1,413 men (mean [SD] age 76.5 [5.7] years) enrolled in both the Outcomes of Sleep Disorders in Older Men (MrOS Sleep) study and Medicare Fee-for-Service. Poor sleep was characterized at the baseline MrOS Sleep visit on five dimensions (satisfaction, daytime sleepiness, timing, latency, and duration). Health care costs and utilization were ascertained over 3 years of follow-up using Medicare Claims. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range [IQR]) annualized total health care costs (2018 US dollars) rose from $3,616 (IQR 1,523-7,875) for those with no impaired sleep dimensions to $4,416 (IQR 1,854-11,343) for men with two impaired sleep dimensions and $5,819 (IQR 1,936-15,569) for those with at least three impaired sleep dimensions. After multivariable adjustment, the ratio of total health care costs (CR) was significantly higher for men with two (1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03- to 1.48) and men with at least three impaired sleep dimensions (1.78, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.23) vs. those with no impaired sleep dimensions. After excluding 101 men who died during the 3-year follow-up period, these associations were attenuated and not significant (CR 1.22, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.53 for men ≥3 impaired sleep dimensions vs. none). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported poor sleep on multiple dimensions is associated with higher subsequent total health care costs in older men, but this may be due to higher mortality and increased health care costs toward the end of life among those with poor sleep health.

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) predict health care costs and utilization in older men, independent of prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease and each other.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and low ankle-brachial index (ABI) are markers of multisite atherosclerosis. We sought to estimate their associations in older men with health care costs and utilization adjusted for each other, and after accounting for CVD risk factors and prevalent CVD diagnoses. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of 2393 community-dwelling men (mean age 73.6 years) enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study and U.S. Medicare Fee for Service (FFS). AAC was scored on baseline lateral lumbar spine X-rays using a 24-point scale. ABI was measured as the lowest ratio of arm to right or left ankle blood pressure. Health care costs, hospital stays, and SNF stays were identified from Medicare FFS claims over 36 months following the baseline visit. RESULTS: Men with AAC score ≥9 (n = 519 [21.7% of analytic cohort]) had higher annualized total health care costs of $1473 (95% C.I. 293, 2654, 2017 U S. dollars) compared to those with AAC score 0-1, after multivariable adjustment. Men with ABI <0.90 (n = 154 [6.4% of analytic cohort]) had higher annualized total health care costs of $2705 (95% CI 634, 4776) compared to men with normal ABI (≥0.9 and < 1.4), after multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of AAC and low ABI in older men are associated with higher subsequent health care costs, after accounting for clinical CVD risk factors, prevalent CVD diagnoses, and each other. Further investigations of whether preventing progression of peripheral vascular disease and calcification reduces subsequent health care costs are warranted.

Sleep Disturbance Predicts Less Improvement in Pain Outcomes: Secondary Analysis of the SPACE Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Sleep disturbance may limit improvement in pain outcomes if not directly addressed in treatment. Moreover, sleep problems may be exacerbated by opioid therapy. This study examined the effects of baseline sleep disturbance on improvement in pain outcomes using data from the Strategies for Prescribing Analgesics Comparative Effectiveness (SPACE) trial, a pragmatic 12-month randomized trial of opioid vs nonopioid medication therapy. DESIGN: Participants with chronic back pain or hip or knee osteoarthritis pain were randomized to either opioid therapy (N = 120) or nonopioid medication therapy (N = 120). METHODS: We used mixed models for repeated measures to 1) test whether baseline sleep disturbance scores modified the effect of opioid vs nonopioid treatment on pain outcomes and 2) test baseline sleep disturbance scores as a predictor of less improvement in pain outcomes across both treatment groups. RESULTS: The tests for interaction of sleep disturbance by treatment group were not significant. Higher sleep disturbance scores at baseline predicted less improvement in Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) interference (ß = 0.058, P = 0.0002) and BPI severity (ß = 0.026, P = 0.0164). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline sleep disturbance adversely affects pain response to treatment regardless of analgesic regimen. Recognition and treatment of sleep impairments that frequently co-occur with pain may optimize outcomes.

Association of sleep-disordered breathing with total healthcare costs and utilization in older men: the Outcomes of Sleep Disorders in Older Men (MrOS Sleep) study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the associations of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) with subsequent healthcare costs and utilization including inpatient and post-acute care facility stays among community-dwelling older men. METHODS: Participants were 1,316 men (mean age 76.1 [SD = 5.7] years) in the Outcomes of Sleep Disorders in Older Men (MrOS sleep) study (from December 2003 to March 2005), who were enrolled in a Medicare Fee-For-Service plan. Primary SDB measures including apnea hypopnea index (AHI) and oxygen desaturation index (ODI) were collected using in-home level 2 polysomnography. Incident healthcare costs and utilization were determined from claims data in the subsequent 3-year period post-MrOS sleep visit. RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-nine (40.2%) men had at least one hospitalization in the 3-year period. Compared with those without sleep apnea (AHI < 5/hour), men with moderate to severe sleep apnea (AHI ≥ 15/hour) had a higher odds of all-cause hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] adjusted for age and site 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.90). This association was slightly attenuated after further adjustment for traditional prognostic factors including education, body mass index, comorbid medical conditions, and health status (OR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01-1.83). Similar associations were observed for ODI. However, measures of SDB were not related to subsequent healthcare costs (total or outpatient) or odds of post-acute skilled nursing facility stay. CONCLUSIONS: Older men with SDB have an increased risk of hospitalization, not entirely explained by the greater prevalence of comorbid conditions, but not higher subsequent total healthcare costs. These findings indicate a need to evaluate the impact of SDB treatment on subsequent healthcare utilization.

Multidimensional sleep health and subsequent health-care costs and utilization in older women.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Determine the association of poor multidimensional sleep health with health-care costs and utilization. METHODS: We linked 1,459 community-dwelling women (mean age 83.6 years) participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Year 16 visit (2002-2004) with their Medicare claims. Five dimensions of sleep health (satisfaction, daytime sleepiness, timing, latency, and duration) were assessed by self-report. The number of impaired dimensions was expressed as a score (range 0-5). Total direct health-care costs and utilization were ascertained during the subsequent 36 months. RESULTS: Mean (SD) total health-care costs/year (2017 dollars) increased in a graded manner across the sleep health score ranging from $10,745 ($15,795) among women with no impairment to up to $15,332 ($22,810) in women with impairment in three to five dimensions (p = 0.01). After adjustment for age, race, and enrollment site, women with impairment in three to five dimensions vs. no impairment had greater mean total costs (cost ratio [CR] 1.34 [95% CI = 1.13 to 1.60]) and appeared to be at higher risk of hospitalization (odds ratio (OR) 1.31 [95% CI = 0.96 to 1.81]). After further accounting for number of medical conditions, functional limitations, and depressive symptoms, impairment in three to five sleep health dimensions was not associated with total costs (CR 1.02 [95% CI = 0.86 to 1.22]) or hospitalization (OR 0.91 [95% CI = 0.65 to 1.28]). Poor multidimensional sleep health was not related to outpatient costs or risk of skilled nursing facility stay. CONCLUSIONS: Older women with poor sleep health have higher subsequent total health-care costs largely attributable to their greater burden of medical conditions, functional limitations, and depressive symptoms.

Association of Disease Definition, Comorbidity Burden, and Prognosis With Hip Fracture Probability Among Late-Life Women.

IMPORTANCE: Advanced age is associated with lower use of drug treatment to prevent fractures, but concerns about comorbidities and prognosis increase the complexity of managing osteoporosis in this age group. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of disease definition, number of comorbidities, and prognosis with 5-year hip fracture probabilities among women who are 80 years and older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study (4 US sites) included 1528 community-dwelling women identified as potential candidates for initiation of osteoporosis drug treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Women were contacted every 4 months to ascertain vital status and hip fracture. Five-year hip fracture probability was calculated accounting for competing mortality risk. Participants were classified into 2 distinct groups based on disease definition criteria proposed by the National Bone Health Alliance: with osteoporosis (n = 761) and without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk (n = 767). Comorbid conditions were assessed by self-report. Prognosis was estimated using a mortality prediction index. All analysis was performed between March 2018 and January 2019. RESULTS: The study had 1528 participants, all of whom were women, with a mean (SD) age of 84.1 (3.4) years. During follow-up, 125 (8.0%) women experienced a hip fracture and 287 (18.8%) died before experiencing this event. Five-year mortality probability was 24.9% (95% CI, 21.8-28.1) among women with osteoporosis and 19.4% (95% CI, 16.6-22.3) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk. In both groups, mortality probability similarly increased with more comorbidities and poorer prognosis. In contrast, 5-year hip fracture probability was 13.0% (95% CI, 10.7-15.5) among women with osteoporosis and 4.0% (95% CI, 2.8-5.6) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk. The difference was most pronounced among women with more comorbidities or worse prognosis. For example, among women with 3 or more comorbid conditions, hip fracture probability was 18.1% (95% CI, 12.3-24.9) among women with osteoporosis vs 2.5% (95% CI, 1.3-4.2) among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Women 80 years and older who have osteoporosis, including those with more comorbidities or poorer prognosis, have a high 5-year probability of hip fracture despite accounting for competing mortality risk. In contrast, among women without osteoporosis but at high fracture risk, competing mortality risk far outweighs hip fracture probability, especially among those with more comorbidities or worse prognosis.

Depressive Symptoms and Total Healthcare Costs: Roles of Functional Limitations and Multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVES: Depressive symptoms can be both a cause and a consequence of functional limitations and medical conditions. Our objectives were to determine the association of depressive symptoms with subsequent total healthcare costs in older women after accounting for functional limitations and multimorbidity. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]). SETTING: Four US sites. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2508 community-dwelling women (mean age = 79.4 years) participating in the SOF year 10 (Y10) examination linked with their Medicare claims data. MEASUREMENTS: At Y10, depressive symptoms were measured using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) and functional limitations were assessed by number (range = 0-5) of impairments in performing instrumental activities of daily living. Multimorbidity was ascertained by the Elixhauser method using claims data for the 12 months preceding the Y10 examination. Total direct healthcare costs, outpatient costs, acute hospital stays, and skilled nursing facility during the 12 months following the Y10 examination were ascertained from claims data. RESULTS: Annualized mean (SD) total healthcare costs were $4654 ($9075) in those with little or no depressive symptoms (GDS score = 0-1), $7871 ($14 534) in those with mild depressive symptoms (GDS score = 2-5), and $9010 ($15 578) in those with moderate to severe depressive symptoms (GDS score = 6 or more). After adjustment for age, site, self-reported functional limitations, and multimorbidity, the magnitudes of these incremental costs were partially attenuated (cost ratio = 1.34 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 1.14-1.59] for those with mild depressive symptoms, and cost ratio = 1.29 [95% CI = 0.99-1.69] for those with moderate to severe depressive symptoms vs women with little or no depressive symptoms). CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms were associated with higher subsequent healthcare costs attributable, in part, to greater functional limitations and multimorbidity among those with symptoms. Importantly, even mild depressive symptoms were associated with higher healthcare costs. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1596-1603, 2019.

The Association Between Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Subsequent Health Care Utilization in Older Men.

BACKGROUND: To examine the associations between objective physical activity measures and subsequent health care utilization. METHODS: We studied 1,283 men (mean age 79.1 years, SD 5.3) participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. Participants wore a SenseWear® Pro Armband monitor for 1 week. Data was summarized as daily (i) step counts, (ii) total energy expenditure, (iii) active energy expenditure, and (iv) activity time (sedentary, ≥ light, ≥ moderate). The outcome measures of 1-year hospitalizations/duration of stay from Medicare data were analyzed with a two-part hurdle model. Covariates included age, clinical center, body mass index, marital status, depressive symptoms, medical conditions, cognitive function, and prior hospitalization. RESULTS: Each 1 SD = 3,092 step increase in daily step count was associated with a 34% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-46%) lower odds of hospitalization in base model (age and center) and 21% (95% CI: 4%-35%) lower odds of hospitalization in fully adjusted models. Similar but smaller associations held for other physical activity measures, but these associations were not significant in fully adjusted models. Among those hospitalized, higher step count was associated with shorter total duration of acute/postacute care stays in the base model only. There was a fourfold significant difference (from model-based estimates) in predicted care days comparing those with 2,000 versus 10,000 daily steps in the base model, but only a twofold difference (not significant) in the full model. CONCLUSION: Daily step count is an easily determined measure of physical activity that may be useful in assessment of future health care burden in older men.

Central Obesity and Visceral Adipose Tissue Are Not Associated With Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events in Older Men.

Background Visceral adipose tissue ( VAT ) and other measures of central obesity predict incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease ( ASCVD ) events in middle-aged individuals, but these associations are less certain in older individuals age 70 years and older. Our objective was to estimate the associations of VAT and the android-gynoid fat mass ratio, another measure of central obesity, with incident ASCVD events among a large cohort of older men. Methods and Results Two thousand eight hundred ninety-nine men (mean [ SD ] age 76.3 [5.5] years) enrolled in the Outcomes of Sleep Disorders in Older Men study had rigorous adjudication of incident ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke). We used proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios for incident ASCVD per SD increase of VAT or android-gynoid fat mass ratio (measured at baseline with dual-energy absorptiometry), adjusted for age, race, education, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, oxidized low-density lipoprotein level, treatment for hypertension, statin use, aspirin use, presence of diabetes mellitus, and study enrollment site. Over a mean ( SD ) follow-up period of 7.9 (3.4) years, 424 men (14.6%) had an incident ASCVD event. Neither VAT nor android-gynoid fat mass ratio were associated with incident ASCVD events, either unadjusted or after multivariable-adjustment (hazard ratios [95% confidence interval ] per SD increase 1.02 [0.92-1.13] and 1.05 [0.95-1.17], respectively). Conclusions Central adipose tissue, as measured by VAT or android-gynoid fat mass ratio, was not associated with incident ASCVD events in this study of older men.

Frailty Phenotype and Healthcare Costs and Utilization in Older Women.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of the frailty phenotype with subsequent healthcare costs and utilization. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF)). SETTING: Four U.S. sites. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling women (mean age 80.2) participating in SOF Year 10 (Y10) examination linked with their Medicare claims data (N=2,150). MEASUREMENTS: At Y10, frailty phenotype defined using criteria similar to those used in the Cardiovascular Health Study frailty phenotype and categorized as robust, intermediate stage, or frail. Participant multimorbidity burden ascertained using claims data. Functional limitations assessed by asking about difficulty performing instrumental activities of daily living. Total direct healthcare costs and utilization ascertained during 12 months after Y10. RESULTS: Mean total annualized cost±standard deviation (2014 dollars) was $3,781±6,920 for robust women, $6,632±12,452 for intermediate stage women, and $10,755 ± 16,589 for frail women. After adjustment for age, site, multimorbidity burden, and cognition, frail women had greater mean total (cost ratio (CR)=1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.59-2.31) and outpatient (CR=1.55, 95% CI=1.36-1.78) costs than robust women and greater odds of hospitalization (odds ratio (OR)=2.05, 95% CI=1.47-2.87) and a skilled nursing facility stay (OR=3.85, 95% CI=1.88-7.88). There were smaller but significant effects of the intermediate stage category on these outcomes. Individual frailty components (shrinking, poor energy, slowness, low physical activity) were also each associated with higher total costs. Functional limitations partially mediated the association between the frailty phenotype and total costs (CR further adjusted for self-reported limitations=1.32, 95% CI=1.07-1.63 for frail vs robust; CR=1.35, 95% CI=1.18-1.55 for intermediate stage vs robust women). CONCLUSION: Intermediate stage and frail older community-dwelling women had higher subsequent total healthcare costs and utilization after accounting for multimorbidity and functional limitations. Frailty phenotype assessment may improve identification of older adults likely to require costly, extensive care.

Associations of recent weight loss with health care costs and utilization among older women.

The association of weight loss with health care costs among older women is uncertain. Our study aim was to examine the association of objectively measured weight change with subsequent total health care (THC) costs and other health care utilization among older women. Our study population included 2,083 women (mean age 80.2 years) enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures and U.S. Medicare Fee for Service. Weight loss and gain were defined, respectively, as ≥5% decrease and ≥5% increase in body weight, and weight maintenance as <5% change in body weight over a period of 4.5 years. THC costs, outpatient costs, hospitalizations, and skilled nursing facility [SNF] utilization were estimated from Medicare claims for 1 year after the period during which weight change was measured. The associations of weight change with THC and outpatient costs were estimated using generalized linear models with gamma variance and log link functions, and with hospitalizations and SNF utilization using logistic models. Adjusted for age and current body mass index (BMI), weight loss compared with weight maintenance was associated with a 35% increase in THC costs ($2148 [95% CI, 745 to 3552], 2014 U.S. dollars), a 15% increase in outpatient costs ($329 [95% C.I. -1 to 660]), and odds ratios of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.76) for ≥1 hospital stay and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.03) for ≥1 SNF stay. These associations did not vary by BMI category. After additional adjustment for multi-morbidity and functional status, associations of weight loss with all four outcomes were no longer significant. In conclusion, ≥5% weight loss among older women is not associated with increased THC and outpatient costs, hospitalization, and SNF utilization, irrespective of BMI category after accounting for multi-morbidity and impaired functional status that accompany weight loss.