Modeling Groundwater Inflow to the New Crater Lake at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i.

During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, scientists relied heavily on a conceptual model of explosive eruptions triggered when lava-lake levels drop below the water table. Numerical modeling of multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport revealed that, contrary to expectations, liquid water inflow to the drained magma conduit would likely be delayed by months to years, owing to the inability of liquid water to transit a zone of very hot rock. The summit of Kilauea subsequently experienced an ∼2-month period of consistent repeated collapses, and the crater now extends below the equilibrium position of the water table. Liquid water first emerged into the deepened crater in late July 2019. The timing of first appearance of liquid water (about 14 months postcollapse) and the rate of crater lake filling (currently ∼27 kg/s) were well-predicted by the numerical modeling done in late spring 2018, which forecast liquid inflow after 3 to 24 months at rates of 10 to 100 kg/s. A second-generation groundwater model, reflecting the current crater geometry, forecasts lake filling over the next several years. The successful 2018 to present forecasts with both models are based on unadjusted in situ permeability estimates (1 to 6 × 10-14  m2 ) and water-table elevations (600 to 800 m) from a nearby research drillhole and geophysical surveys. Important unknowns that affect the reliability of longer-term forecasts include the equilibrium water-table geometry, the rate of evaporation from the hot and growing crater lake (currently ∼29,000 m2 at 70-80 °C), and heterogenous permeability changes caused by the 2018 collapse.

Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea Volcano.

Lava flows present a recurring threat to communities on active volcanoes, and volumetric eruption rate is one of the primary factors controlling flow behavior and hazard. The time scales and driving forces of eruption rate variability, however, remain poorly understood. In 2018, a highly destructive eruption occurred on the lower flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i, where the primary vent exhibited substantial cyclic eruption rates on both short (minutes) and long (tens of hours) time scales. We used multiparameter data to show that the short cycles were driven by shallow outgassing, whereas longer cycles were pressure-driven surges in magma supply triggered by summit caldera collapse events 40 kilometers upslope. The results provide a clear link between eruption rate fluctuations and their driving processes in the magmatic system.

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano.

In 2018, Kilauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'O'o vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 kilometers. A 4 May earthquake [moment magnitude (M w) 6.9] produced ~5 meters of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 cubic meters per second, eventually covering 35.5 square kilometers. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M w 4.7 to 5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent-about 0.8 cubic kilometers. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kilauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.