Spatial distribution and determinants of HIV prevalence among adults in urban Ethiopia: Findings from the Ethiopia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (2017-2018).

The design and evaluation of national HIV programs often rely on aggregated national data, which may obscure localized HIV epidemics. In Ethiopia, even though the national adult HIV prevalence has decreased, little information is available about local areas and subpopulations. To inform HIV prevention efforts for specific populations, we identified geographic locations and drivers of HIV transmission. We used data from adults aged 15-64 years who participated in the Ethiopian Population-based HIV Impact Assessment survey (October 2017-April 2018). Location-related information for the survey clusters was obtained from the 2007 Ethiopia population census. Spatial autocorrelation of HIV prevalence data were analyzed via a Global Moran's I test. Geographically weighted regression analysis was used to show the relationship of covariates. The finding indicated that uncircumcised men in certain hotspot towns and divorced or widowed individuals in hotspot woredas/towns might have contributed to the average increase in HIV prevalence in the hotspot areas. Hotspot analysis findings indicated that, localized, context-specific intervention efforts tailored to at-risk populations, such as divorced or widowed women or uncircumcised men, could decrease HIV transmission and prevalence in urban Ethiopia.

Lower cognitive scores among toddlers in birth cohorts with acute respiratory illnesses, fevers, and laboratory-confirmed influenza.

BACKGROUND: We established cohorts to assess associations between viral influenza and cognitive development to inform the value proposition of vaccination. METHODS: From 2014 through 2017, we called women seeking care at four prenatal clinics in Panama and El Salvador to identify acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs). Within 2 weeks of childbirth, mothers were asked to enroll their neonates in the cognitive development study. Staff obtained nasopharyngeal swabs from children with febrile ARIs for real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) detection of viral RNA. Toddlers were administered Bayley developmental tests at ages 12 and 18-24 months. We used multilevel linear regression to explore associations between Bayley scores, ARIs, fever, and laboratory-confirmed influenza, controlling for maternal respiratory or Zika illnesses, infant influenza vaccination, birth during influenza epidemics, and the number of children in households. RESULTS: We enrolled 1567 neonates of which 68% (n = 1062) underwent developmental testing once and 40% (n = 623) twice. Children with previous ARIs scored an average of 3 points lower on their cognitive scores than children without ARIs (p = 0.001). Children with previous fevers scored an average of 2.1 points lower on their cognitive scores than afebrile children (p = 0.02). In the second year, children with previous laboratory-confirmed influenza scored 4 points lower on their cognitive scores than children without influenza (p = 0.04, after controlling for first Bayley cognitive scores). CONCLUSIONS: ARIs and fever during infancy were associated with lower Bayley scores at 12 months, and laboratory-confirmed influenza was associated with lower cognitive scores at 24 months suggesting the potential value of vaccination to prevent non-respiratory complications of influenza.

Prevalence and genetic diversity of viral gastroenteritis viruses in children younger than 5 years of age in Guatemala, 2014-2015.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhea is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children and is associated with approximately 500,000 deaths/year globally. Rotavirus and norovirus are leading causes of acute diarrhea accounting for more than half of this burden. OBJECTIVE/STUDY DESIGN: To determine the prevalence and genotype distribution of acute diarrhea caused by rotavirus, norovirus, sapovirus and astrovirus among children <5 years of age at two departments in Guatemala from January 2014 to December 2015, we tested 471 stool specimens (202 samples from hospitalized children and 269 samples from children in ambulatory clinics) by real-time reverse transcription-PCR and genotyped positive samples. RESULTS: Rotavirus was detected in 20.4%, norovirus in 18.5%, sapovirus in 7% and astrovirus in 4.2% of the samples. Co-infection of rotavirus and norovirus was found in 2.6% of the samples. Most norovirus (87.4%) and rotavirus (81.3%) infections were detected in children in the 6-12 months age group. The proportion of patients with rotavirus (34%) and norovirus (23%) was higher in hospitalized patients compared to ambulatory patients, whereas the prevalence of sapovirus and astrovirus was similar in both settings. Of the 40 genotyped norovirus strains, 62.5% were GII.4 and 15% GII.3. Sapovirus genotypes included GI.1 (15.4%), GII.2 (15.4%), GII.5 (38.5%) and GIV.1 (30.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that in 2014-2015, gastroenteritis viruses account for 50% of acute diarrhea in children younger than 5 years of age in Guatemala, highlighting the importance of continuous surveillance to guide impact of the current rotavirus vaccine and formulation of future norovirus vaccines.

Will Participatory Syndromic Surveillance Work in Latin America? Piloting a Mobile Approach to Crowdsource Influenza-Like Illness Data in Guatemala.

BACKGROUND: In many Latin American countries, official influenza reports are neither timely nor complete, and surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI) remains thin in consistency and precision. Public participation with mobile technology may offer new ways of identifying nonmedically attended cases and reduce reporting delays, but no published studies to date have assessed the viability of ILI surveillance with mobile tools in Latin America. We implemented and assessed an ILI-tailored mobile health (mHealth) participatory reporting system. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the quality and characteristics of electronically collected data, the user acceptability of the symptom reporting platform, and the costs of running the system and of identifying ILI cases, and to use the collected data to characterize cases of reported ILI. METHODS: We recruited the heads of 189 households comprising 584 persons during randomly selected home visits in Guatemala. From August 2016 to March 2017, participants used text messages or an app to report symptoms of ILI at home, the ages of the ILI cases, if medical attention was sought, and if medicines were bought in pharmacies. We sent weekly reminders to participants and compensated those who sent reports with phone credit. We assessed the simplicity, flexibility, acceptability, stability, timeliness, and data quality of the system. RESULTS: Nearly half of the participants (47.1%, 89/189) sent one or more reports. We received 468 reports, 83.5% (391/468) via text message and 16.4% (77/468) via app. Nine-tenths of the reports (93.6%, 438/468) were received within 48 hours of the transmission of reminders. Over a quarter of the reports (26.5%, 124/468) indicated that at least someone at home had ILI symptoms. We identified 202 ILI cases and collected age information from almost three-fifths (58.4%, 118/202): 20 were aged between 0 and 5 years, 95 were aged between 6 and 64 years, and three were aged 65 years or older. Medications were purchased from pharmacies, without medical consultation, in 33.1% (41/124) of reported cases. Medical attention was sought in 27.4% (34/124) of reported cases. The cost of identifying an ILI case was US $6.00. We found a positive correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient=.8) between reported ILI and official surveillance data for noninfluenza viruses from weeks 41 (2016) to 13 (2017). CONCLUSIONS: Our system has the potential to serve as a practical complement to respiratory virus surveillance in Guatemala. Its strongest attributes are simplicity, flexibility, and timeliness. The biggest challenge was low enrollment caused by people's fear of victimization and lack of phone credit. Authorities in Central America could test similar methods to improve the timeliness, and extend the breadth, of disease surveillance. It may allow them to rapidly detect localized or unusual circulation of acute respiratory illness and trigger appropriate public health actions.