ABSTRACT
For effective operating room (OR) planning, surgery duration estimation is critical. Overestimation leads to underutilization of expensive hospital resources (e.g., OR time) whereas underestimation leads to overtime and high waiting times for the patients. In this paper, we consider a particular estimation method currently in use and using additional temporal, operational, and staff-related factors provide a statistical model to adjust these estimates for higher accuracy.The results show that our method increases the accuracy of the estimates, in particular by reducing large errors. For the 8093 cases we have in our data, our model decreases the mean absolute deviation of the currently used scheduled duration (42.65 ± 0.59 minutes) by 1.98 ± 0.28 minutes. For the cases with large negative errors, however, the decrease in the mean absolute deviation is 20.35 ± 0.74 minutes (with a respective increase of 0.89 ± 0.66 minutes in large positive errors). We find that not only operational and temporal factors, but also medical staff and team experience related factors (such as number of nurses and the frequency of the medical team working together) could be used to improve the currently used estimates. Finally, we conclude that one could further improve these predictions by combining our model with other good prediction models proposed in the literature. Specifically, one could decrease the mean absolute deviation of 39.98 ± 0.58 minutes obtained via the method of Dexter et al (Anesth Analg 117(1):204-209, 2013) by 1.02 ± 0.21 minutes by combining our method with theirs.
Subject(s)
Operating Rooms/organization & administration , Personnel Staffing and Scheduling/organization & administration , Surgery Department, Hospital/organization & administration , Algorithms , Appointments and Schedules , General Surgery , Health Services Research , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Quality of Health Care , Time FactorsABSTRACT
Inherent uncertainties in surgery durations impact many critical metrics about the performance of an operating room (OR) environment. OR schedules that are robust to natural variability in surgery durations require surgery duration estimates that are unbiased, with high accuracy, and with few cases with large absolute errors. Earlier studies have shown that factors such as patient severity, personnel, and procedure type greatly affect the accuracy of such estimations. In this paper we investigate whether operational and temporal factors can be used to improve these estimates further. We present an adjustment method based on a combination of these operational and temporal factors. We validate our method with two years of detailed operational data from an electronic medical record. We conclude that while improving estimates of surgery durations is possible, the inherent variability in such estimates remains high, necessitating caution in their use when optimizing OR schedules.
