Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change.

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Life-history traits predict responses of wild bees to climate variation.

Life-history traits, which are physical traits or behaviours that affect growth, survivorship and reproduction, could play an important role in how well organisms respond to environmental change. By looking for trait-based responses within groups, we can gain a mechanistic understanding of why environmental change might favour or penalize certain species over others. We monitored the abundance of at least 154 bee species for 8 consecutive years in a subalpine region of the Rocky Mountains to ask whether bees respond differently to changes in abiotic conditions based on their life-history traits. We found that comb-building cavity nesters and larger bodied bees declined in relative abundance with increasing temperatures, while smaller, soil-nesting bees increased. Further, bees with narrower diet breadths increased in relative abundance with decreased rainfall. Finally, reduced snowpack was associated with reduced relative abundance of bees that overwintered as prepupae whereas bees that overwintered as adults increased in relative abundance, suggesting that overwintering conditions might affect body size, lipid content and overwintering survival. Taken together, our results show how climate change may reshape bee pollinator communities, with bees with certain traits increasing in abundance and others declining, potentially leading to novel plant-pollinator interactions and changes in plant reproduction.

Grass species identity shapes communities of root and leaf fungi more than elevation.

Fungal symbionts can buffer plants from environmental extremes and may affect host capacities to acclimate, adapt, or redistribute under environmental change; however, the distributions of fungal symbionts along abiotic gradients are poorly described. Fungal mutualists should be the most beneficial in abiotically stressful environments, and the structure of networks of plant-fungal interactions likely shift along gradients, even when fungal community composition does not track environmental stress. We sampled 634 unique combinations of fungal endophytes and mycorrhizal fungi, grass species identities, and sampling locations from 66 sites across six replicate altitudinal gradients in the western Colorado Rocky Mountains. The diversity and composition of leaf endophytic, root endophytic, and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal guilds and the overall abundance of fungal functional groups (pathogens, saprotrophs, mutualists) tracked grass host identity more closely than elevation. Network structures of root endophytes become more nested and less specialized at higher elevations, but network structures of other fungal guilds did not vary with elevation. Overall, grass species identity had overriding influence on the diversity and composition of above- and belowground fungal endophytes and AM fungi, despite large environmental variation. Therefore, in our system climate change may rarely directly affect fungal symbionts. Instead, fungal symbiont distributions will most likely track the range dynamics of host grasses.

Predicting changes in bee assemblages following state transitions at North American dryland ecotones.

Drylands worldwide are experiencing ecosystem state transitions: the expansion of some ecosystem types at the expense of others. Bees in drylands are particularly abundant and diverse, with potential for large compositional differences and seasonal turnover across ecotones. To better understand how future ecosystem state transitions may influence bees, we compared bee assemblages and their seasonality among sites at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (NM, USA) that represent three dryland ecosystem types (and two ecotones) of the southwestern U.S. (Plains grassland, Chihuahuan Desert grassland, and Chihuahuan Desert shrubland). Using passive traps, we caught bees during two-week intervals from March-October, 2002-2014. The resulting dataset included 302 bee species and 56 genera. Bee abundance, composition, and diversity differed among ecosystems, indicating that future state transitions could alter bee assemblage composition in our system. We found strong seasonal bee species turnover, suggesting that bee phenological shifts may accompany state transitions. Common species drove the observed trends, and both specialist and generalist bee species were indicators of ecosystem types or months; these species could be sentinels of community-wide responses to future shifts. Our work suggests that predicting the consequences of global change for bee assemblages requires accounting for both within-year and among-ecosystem variation.

Altitudinal gradients fail to predict fungal symbiont responses to warming.

Climate change is shifting altitudinal species ranges, with potential to disrupt species interactions. Altitudinal gradient studies and warming experiments can both increase understanding of climate effects on species interactions, but few studies have used both together to improve predictions. We examined whether plant-fungal symbioses responded similarly to altitude and 23 yr of experimental warming. Root- and leaf-associated fungi, which can mediate plants' climate sensitivity, responded divergently to elevation vs. warming. Fungal colonization, diversity, and composition varied with altitude, but climate variables were generally weak predictors; other factors such as host plant identity, plant community composition, or edaphic variables likely drive fungal altitudinal distributions. Manipulated warming altered fungal colonization, but not composition or diversity. Leaf symbionts were more sensitive to climate and experimental warming than root symbionts. Altitudinal patterns and responses to warming differed among host plant species and fungal groups, indicating that predicting climate effects on symbioses will require tracking both host and symbiont identities. Combining experimental and observational methods can yield valuable insight into how climate change may alter plant-symbiont interactions, but our results indicate that altitude does not always serve as an adequate proxy for warming effects on fungal symbionts of plants.

Plant Identity Influences Foliar Fungal Symbionts More Than Elevation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains.

Despite colonizing nearly every plant on Earth, foliar fungal symbionts have received little attention in studies on the biogeography of host-associated microbes. Evidence from regional scale studies suggests that foliar fungal symbiont distributions are influenced both by plant hosts and environmental variation in climate and soil resources. However, previous surveys have focused on either one plant host across an environmental gradient or one gradient and multiple plant hosts, making it difficult to disentangle the influence of host identity from the influence of the environment on foliar endophyte communities. We used a culture-based approach to survey fungal symbiont composition in the leaves of nine C3 grass species along replicated elevation gradients in grasslands of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. In these ecosystems, the taxonomic richness and composition of foliar fungal symbionts were mostly structured by the taxonomic identity of the plant host rather than by variation in climate. Plant traits related to size (height and leaf length) were the best predictors of foliar fungal symbiont composition and diversity, and composition did not vary predictably with plant evolutionary history. The largest plants had the most diverse and distinctive fungal communities. These results suggest that across the ~ 300 m elevation range that we sampled, foliar fungal symbionts may indirectly experience climate change by tracking the shifting distributions of plant hosts rather than tracking climate directly.

A mutualistic endophyte alters the niche dimensions of its host plant.

Mutualisms can play important roles in influencing species coexistence and determining community composition. However, few studies have tested whether such interactions can affect species distributions by altering the niches of partner species. In subalpine meadows of the Rocky Mountains, USA, we explored whether the presence of a fungal endophyte (genus Epichloë) may shift the niche of its partner plant, marsh bluegrass (Poa leptocoma) relative to a closely related but endophyte-free grass species, nodding bluegrass (Poa reflexa). Using observations and a 3-year field experiment, we tested two questions: (i) Do P. leptocoma and P. reflexa occupy different ecological niches? and (ii) Does endophyte presence affect the relative fitness of P. leptocoma versus P. reflexa in the putative niches of these grass species? The two species were less likely to co-occur than expected by chance. Specifically, P. leptocoma grew closer to water sources and in wetter soils than P. reflexa, and also had higher root colonization by mycorrhizal fungi. Endophyte-symbiotic P. leptocoma seeds germinated with greater frequency in P. leptocoma niches relative to P. reflexa niches, whereas neither endophyte-free (experimentally removed) P. leptocoma seeds nor P. reflexa seeds showed differential germination between the two niche types. Thus, endophyte presence constrained the germination and early survival of host plants to microsites occupied by P. leptocoma. However, endophyte-symbiotic P. leptocoma ultimately showed greater growth than endophyte-free plants across all microsites, indicating a net benefit of the symbiosis at this life history stage. Differential effects of endophyte symbiosis on different host life history stages may thus contribute to niche partitioning between the two congeneric plant species. Our study therefore identifies a symbiotic relationship as a potential mechanism facilitating the coexistence of two species, suggesting that symbiont effects on host niche may have community-level consequences.