Hospital response to Activity-Based Funding and price incentives: Evidence from Ireland.

Activity-Based Funding (ABF) is a funding policy incentivising hospitals to deliver more efficient care. ABF can be complemented by additional price incentives to further drive hospital efficiency. In 2016, ABF was introduced for public patients admitted to Irish public hospitals. Additionally, a price incentive to perform laparoscopic cholecystectomy as day-case surgery was introduced in 2018. Private patient activity in public hospitals was subject to neither ABF nor price incentive. Using national Hospital In-Patient-Enquiry activity data 2013-2019, we evaluated the impact of ABF and the price incentive for laparoscopic cholecystectomy surgery in Ireland. We exploit variation in hospital payment for public and private patients treated in public acute Irish hospitals and employ a Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences approach. We estimate the funding change impacts across outcomes measuring the proportion of day-case admissions and length of stay. We found no significant impact for either outcomes linked to ABF introduction. Similarly, no impacts linked to the price incentive were observed. It appears providers of laparoscopic cholecystectomy in Irish public hospitals did not react to the new funding mechanisms. The implementation of the funding policies did not improve hospital efficiency. Further strengthening of these new funding mechanisms are required to deliver more efficient care.

A comparison of four quasi-experimental methods: an analysis of the introduction of activity-based funding in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Health services research often relies on quasi-experimental study designs in the estimation of treatment effects of a policy change or an intervention. The aim of this study is to compare some of the commonly used non-experimental methods in estimating intervention effects, and to highlight their relative strengths and weaknesses. We estimate the effects of Activity-Based Funding, a hospital financing reform of Irish public hospitals, introduced in 2016. METHODS: We estimate and compare four analytical methods: Interrupted time series analysis, Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences and the Synthetic Control method. Specifically, we focus on the comparison between the control-treatment methods and the non-control-treatment approach, interrupted time series analysis. Our empirical example evaluated the length of stay impact post hip replacement surgery, following the introduction of Activity-Based Funding in Ireland. We also contribute to the very limited research reporting the impacts of Activity-Based-Funding within the Irish context. RESULTS: Interrupted time-series analysis produced statistically significant results different in interpretation, while the Difference-in-Differences, Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control methods incorporating control groups, suggested no statistically significant intervention effect, on patient length of stay. CONCLUSION: Our analysis confirms that different analytical methods for estimating intervention effects provide different assessments of the intervention effects. It is crucial that researchers employ appropriate designs which incorporate a counterfactual framework. Such methods tend to be more robust and provide a stronger basis for evidence-based policy-making.

Metrics and indicators used to assess health system resilience in response to shocks to health systems in high income countries-A systematic review.

Health system resilience has never been more important than with the COVID-19 pandemic. There is need to identify feasible measures of resilience, potential strategies to build resilience and weaknesses of health systems experiencing shocks. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine how the resilience of health systems has been measured across various health system shocks. Following PRISMA guidelines, with double screening at each stage, the review identified 3175 studies of which 68 studies were finally included for analysis. Almost half (46%) were focused on COVID-19, followed by the economic crises, disasters and previous pandemics. Over 80% of studies included quantitative metrics. The most common WHO health system functions studied were resources and service delivery. In relation to the shock cycle, most studies reported metrics related to the management stage (79%) with the fewest addressing recovery and learning (22%). Common metrics related to staff headcount, staff wellbeing, bed number and type, impact on utilisation and quality, public and private health spending, access and coverage, and information systems. Limited progress has been made with developing standardised qualitative metrics particularly around governance. Quantitative metrics need to be analysed in relation to change and the impact of the shock. The review notes problems with measuring preparedness and the fact that few studies have really assessed the legacy or enduring impact of shocks.

Projected private hospital expenditure in Ireland, 2018-2035: What role for demographics, cost, and Sláintecare?

Despite private hospitals occupying an important role in the delivery of acute hospital care in Ireland, an understanding of future spending pressures on these services is limited. Particularly, a key dimension of Ireland's ambitious roadmap for healthcare reform (Sláintecare) seeks to remove private practice from public hospitals. However, to date, there has been no examination of how this reform could impact private hospital demand and expenditure, and ultimately, the capacity to treat public patients. Using previously unavailable administrative health insurer data and a healthcare macro-simulation projection model, we project real (volume-based) and nominal expenditure on private hospital services over the medium-term (2018-2035). We develop a number of projection scenarios that vary assumptions in relation to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, and the future cost of care delivery. Additionally, by developing profiles of private activity in public hospitals, we examine how the removal of private practice from public hospitals could impact on demand and expenditure in private hospitals over time. Findings from this analysis have implications for capital investment and workforce planning in private hospitals, and failure to meet future demand could have implications for access to care in public hospitals. Moreover, should private practice be ended in public hospitals, most complex private in-patient and emergency care is likely to remain within the public hospitals with limited capacity benefits for the public system.

Analytical methods to assess the impacts of activity-based funding (ABF): a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Activity-Based Funding (ABF) has been implemented across many countries as a means to incentivise efficient hospital care delivery and resource use. Previous reviews have assessed the impact of ABF implementation on a range of outcomes across health systems. However, no comprehensive review of the methods used to generate this evidence has been undertaken. The aim of this review is to identify and assess the analytical methods employed in research on ABF hospital performance outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews. Five academic databases and reference lists of included studies were used to identify studies assessing the impact of ABF on hospital performance outcomes. Peer-reviewed quantitative studies published between 2000 and 2019 considering ABF implementation outside the U.S. were included. Qualitative studies, policy discussions and commentaries were excluded. Abstracts and full text studies were double screened to ensure consistency. All analytical approaches and their relative strengths and weaknesses were charted and summarised. RESULTS: We identified 19 studies that assessed hospital performance outcomes from introduction of ABF in England, Korea, Norway, Portugal, Israel, the Netherlands, Canada, Italy, Japan, Belgium, China, and Austria. Quasi-experimental methods were used across most reviewed studies. The most commonly used assessment methods were different forms of interrupted time series analyses. Few studies used difference-in-differences or similar methods to compare outcome changes over time relative to comparator groups. The main hospital performance outcome measures examined were case numbers, length of stay, mortality and readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Non-experimental study designs continue to be the most widely used method in the assessment of ABF impacts. Quasi-experimental approaches examining the impact of ABF implementation on outcomes relative to comparator groups not subject to the reform should be applied where possible to facilitate identification of effects. These approaches provide a more robust evidence-base for informing future financing reform and policy.

The great convergence? Mortality in Ireland and Europe, 1956-2014.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, Irish age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were amongst the highest in the EU-15. This study examines changes in ASMRs in Ireland from 1956 to 2014. METHODS: Using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, we compare ASMRs in Ireland to other EU-15 countries from 1956 to 2014. ASMRS are used to plot the relative ranking of Ireland within the EU-15, and illustrate trends in which Ireland diverged with, and converged to, the EU-15 average. ASMRS are estimated across sex, age groups (15-64 and 65+ years) and cause of death. RESULTS: Between 1956 and 1999, ASMRs in Ireland were amongst the highest in the EU-15. ASMRs in Ireland saw slower improvements during this period as compared to other EU-15 countries. However, post-2000, a sharp reduction in Irish ASMRs resulted in an accelerated convergence to the EU-15 average. As a consequence of improvements in ASMRs between 2000 and 2014, there were an estimated 15 300 fewer deaths in 2014. The majority of these averted deaths were due to lower mortality rates for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than converging to the EU-15 average during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a divergence in ASMRs between Ireland and the EU-15. However, in recent years, Ireland experienced accelerated improvements in mortality rates with large reductions in mortality observed for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system, especially amongst older people.

The introduction of lifetime community rating in the Irish private health insurance market: Effects on coverage and plan choice.

In response to declining insurance coverage and adverse selection, in May 2015, Ireland introduced lifetime community rating (LCR) of health insurance premiums to encourage take-up of health insurance at younger ages. LCR requires that late-entry premium loadings be applied to those, aged 35 and over, taking out health insurance for the first time. This analysis exploits quasi-experimental difference-in-differences methods to estimate the effect of LCR regulations on insurance take-up, controlling for potentially confounding factors. Findings reveal that the introduction of LCR increased coverage rates for those aged 35-69 by approximately 2.5 percentage points (p < 0.01). However, the impact on coverage was largely concentrated in the 35-54 age cohort. Relative to underlying plan coverage rates, take-up was proportionately greatest for low-cover plans. Ireland is the second country to introduce late-entry premium loadings to its voluntary health insurance market, following Australia in 2000. This analysis adds to the current evidence base and improves understanding of consumer response to these regulations. The introduction of LCR has encouraged insurance take-up by those who may have otherwise postponed take-up to older ages contributing to a reversal in declining overall coverage trends, at least initially. However, the purchase of cheaper plans by relatively younger consumers could be contributing to risk segmentation within the market. Moreover, these cheaper insurance plans tend to offer limited benefits and consumers may still face significant out-of-pocket costs to access private care.

Did the expansion of free GP care impact demand for Emergency Department attendances? A difference-in-differences analysis.

The removal of co-payments for General Practitioner (GP) services has been shown to increase utilisation of GP care. The introduction of free GP care may also have spillover effects on utilisation of other healthcare such as Emergency Department (ED) services, which often serve as substitutes for primary care, and where co-payments to attend exist for many. In Ireland, out-of-pocket payments are paid by the majority of the population to access GP care, and these costs are amongst the highest in Europe. However, in July 2015 all children in Ireland aged under 6 became eligible for free GP care. Using a large administrative dataset on 413,562 ED attendances between January 2015 and June 2016 we apply a difference-in-differences method, with treatment and control groups differentiated by age, to examine whether ED utilisation changed amongst younger children following the introduction of universal free GP care. In particular, we examine ED attendances following a GP referral, as referrals from GPs also afford access to the ED free of charge. We find that the expansion of free GP care did not reduce overall ED utilisation for under 6s. Additionally, we find that the proportion of ED attendances occurring through GP referrals increased by over 2 percentage points. This latter finding may be indicative of increased pressure placed on GPs from increased demand. Overall, this study finds that expanding free GP care to all young children did not reduce their ED utilisation.

Switching benefits and costs in the Irish health insurance market: an analysis of consumer surveys.

Relatively little analysis has taken place internationally on the consumer-reported benefits and costs to switching insurer in multi-payer health insurance markets. Ideally, consumers should be willing to switch out of consideration for price and quality and switching should be able to take place without incurring significant switching costs. Costs to switching come in many forms and understanding the nature of these costs is necessary if policy interventions to improve market competition are to be successful. This study utilises data from consumer surveys of the Irish health insurance market collected between 2009 and 2013 (N [Formula: see text] 1703) to examine consumer-reported benefits and costs to switching insurer. Probit regression models are specified to examine the relationship between consumer characteristics and reported switching costs, and switching behaviour, respectively. Overall evidence suggests that switchers in the Irish market mainly did so out of consideration for price. Transaction cost was the most common switching cost identified, reported by just under 1 in 7 non-switchers. Psychological switching costs may also be impacting behaviour. Moreover, high-risk individuals were more likely to experience switching costs and this was reflected in actual switching behaviour. A recent information campaign launched by the market regulator may prove beneficial in reducing perceived transaction costs in the market, however, a more focused campaign aimed at high-risk consumers may be necessary to reduce inequalities. Policy-makers should also consider the impact insurer behaviour may have on decision-making.

How many beds? Capacity implications of hospital care demand projections in the Irish hospital system, 2015-2030.

Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030. This analysis employs the HIPPOCRATES macrosimulation projection model of health care demand and expenditure developed in the ESRI to project public and private hospital bed capacity requirements in Ireland to 2030. We examine 6 alternative projection scenarios that vary assumptions related to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, unmet demand, hospital occupancy, hospital length of stay, and avoidable hospitalisations. We project an increased need for between 4000 and 6300 beds across public and private hospitals (an increase of between 26.1% and 41.1%), of which 3200 to 5600 will be required in public hospitals. These findings suggest that government plans to increase public hospital capacity over the 10 years to 2027 by 2600 may not be sufficient to meet demand requirements to 2030, even when models of care changes are accounted for.

Predictors of career progression and obstacles and opportunities for non-EU hospital doctors to undertake postgraduate training in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's Global Code on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel urges Member States to observe fair recruitment practices and ensure equality of treatment of migrant and domestically-trained health personnel. However, international medical graduates (IMGs) have experienced difficulties in accessing postgraduate training and in progressing their careers in several destination countries. Ireland is highly dependent on IMGs, but also employs non-European Union (EU) doctors who qualified as doctors in Ireland. However, little is known regarding the career progression of these doctors. In this context, the present study assesses the determinants of career progression of non-EU doctors with particular focus on whether barriers to progression exist for those graduating outside Ireland compared to those who have graduated within. METHODS: The study utilises quantitative data from an online survey of non-EU doctors registered with the Medical Council of Ireland undertaken as part of the Doctor Migration Project (2011-2013). Non-EU doctors registered with the Medical Council of Ireland were asked to complete an online survey about their recruitment, training and career experiences in Ireland. Analysis was conducted on the responses of 231 non-EU hospital doctors whose first post in Ireland was not permanent. Career progression was analysed by means of binary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: While some of the IMGs had succeeded in accessing specialist training, many experienced slow or stagnant career progression when compared with Irish-trained non-EU doctors. Key predictors of career progression for non-EU doctors working in Ireland showed that doctors who qualified outside of Ireland were less likely than Irish-trained non-EU doctors to experience career progression. Length of stay as a qualified doctor in Ireland was strongly associated with career progression. Those working in anaesthesia were significantly more likely to experience career progression than those in other specialities. CONCLUSIONS: The present study highlights differences in terms of achieving career progression and training for Irish-trained non-EU doctors, compared to those trained elsewhere. However, the findings herein warrant further attention from a workforce planning and policy development perspective regarding Ireland's obligations under the Global Code of hiring, promoting and remunerating migrant health personnel on the basis of equality of treatment with the domestically-trained health workforce.

Switching insurer in the Irish voluntary health insurance market: determinants, incentives, and risk equalization.

BACKGROUND: The determinants of consumer mobility in voluntary health insurance markets providing duplicate cover are not well understood. Consumer mobility can have important implications for competition. Consumers should be price-responsive and be willing to switch insurer in search of the best-value products. Moreover, although theory suggests low-risk consumers are more likely to switch insurer, this process should not be driven by insurers looking to attract low risks. METHODS: This study utilizes data on 320,830 VHI healthcare policies due for renewal between August 2013 and June 2014. At the time of renewal, policyholders were categorized as either 'switchers' or 'stayers', and policy information was collected for the prior 12 months. Differences between these groups were assessed by means of logistic regression. The ability of Ireland's risk equalization scheme to account for the relative attractiveness of switchers was also examined. RESULTS: Policyholders were price sensitive (OR 1.052, p < 0.01), however, price-sensitivity declined with age. Age (OR 0.971; p < 0.01) and hospital utilization (OR 0.977; p < 0.01) were both negatively associated with switching. In line with these findings, switchers were less costly than stayers for the 12 months prior to the switch/renew decision for single person (difference in average cost = €540.64) and multiple-person policies (difference in average cost = €450.74). Some cost differences remain for single-person policies following risk equalization (difference in average cost = €88.12). CONCLUSIONS: Consumers appear price-responsive, which is important for competition provided it is based on correct incentives. Risk equalization payments largely eliminated the profitable status of switchers, although further refinements may be required.

Longitudinal modelling of theory-based depressive vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and poor outcomes post-ACS.

BACKGROUND: Depression is associated with increased mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, little is known about the theoretical causes of depression trajectories post-ACS, and whether these trajectories predict subsequent morbidity/mortality. We tested a longitudinal model of depressive vulnerabilities, trajectories and mortality. METHODS: A prospective observational study of 374 ACS patients was conducted. Participants completed questionnaires on theoretical vulnerabilities (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, and Type D personality) during hospitalisation and depression at baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Latent class analysis determined trajectories of depression. Path analysis was used to test relationships among vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and outcomes (combination of 1-year morbidity and 7-year mortality). RESULTS: Vulnerabilities independently predicted persistent and subthreshold depression trajectory categories, with effect sizes significantly highest for persistent depression. Both subthreshold and persistent depression trajectories were significant predictors of morbidity/mortality (e.g. persistent depression OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.8-3.1, relative to never depressed). LIMITATIONS: Causality cannot be inferred from these associations. We had no measures of history of depression or treatments, which may affect associations. CONCLUSIONS: Theoretical vulnerabilities predicted depression trajectories, which in turn predicted increased morbidity/mortality, demonstrating for the first time a potential longitudinal chain of events post-ACS. This longitudinal model has important practical implications as clinicians can use vulnerability measures to identify those at most risk of poor outcomes.

Indicators of health system coverage and activity in Ireland during the economic crisis 2008-2014 - from 'more with less' to 'less with less'.

A new Irish government came to power in March 2011 with the most radical proposals for health system reform in the history of the state, including improving access to healthcare, free GP care for all by 2015 and the introduction of Universal Health Insurance after 2016. All this was to be achieved amidst the most severe economic crisis experienced by Ireland since the 1930s. The authors assess how well the system coped with a downsizing of resources by an analysis of coverage and health system activity indicators. These show a health system that managed 'to do more with less' from 2008 to 2012. They also demonstrate a system that was 'doing more with less' by transferring the cost of care onto people and by significant resource cuts. From 2013, the indicators show a system that has no choice but 'to do less with less' with diminishing returns from crude cuts. This is evident in declining numbers with free care, of hospital cases and home care hours, alongside increased wait-times and expensive agency staffing. The results suggest a limited window of benefit from austerity beyond which cuts and rationing prevail which is costly, in both human and financial terms.

A framework for assessing health system resilience in an economic crisis: Ireland as a test case.

BACKGROUND: The financial crisis that hit the global economy in 2007 was unprecedented in the post war era. In general the crisis has created a difficult environment for health systems globally. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for assessing the resilience of health systems in terms of how they have adjusted to economic crisis. Resilience can be understood as the capacity of a system to absorb change but continue to retain essentially the same identity and function. The Irish health system is used as a case study to assess the usefulness of this framework. METHODS: The authors identify three forms of resilience: financial, adaptive and transformatory. Indicators of performance are presented to allow for testing of the framework and measurement of system performance. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to yield data for the Irish case study. Quantitative data were collected from government documents and sources to understand the depth of the recession and the different dimensions of the response. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key decision makers to understand the reasons for decisions made. RESULTS: In the Irish case there is mixed evidence on resilience. Health funding was initially protected but was then followed by deep cuts as the crisis deepened. There is strong evidence for adaptive resilience, with the health system showing efficiency gains from the recession. Nevertheless, easy efficiencies have been made and continued austerity will mean cuts in entitlements and services. The prospects for building and maintaining transformatory resilience are unsure. While the direction of reform is clear, and has been preserved to date, it is not certain whether it will remain manageable given continued austerity, some loss of sovereignty and capacity limitations. CONCLUSIONS: The three aspects of resilience proved a useful categorisation of performance measurement though there is overlap between them. Transformatory resilience may be more difficult to assess precisely. It would be useful to test out the framework against other country experiences and refine the measures and indicators. Further research on both the comparative resilience of different health systems and building resilience in preparation for crises is encouraged.

Measuring recession severity and its impact on healthcare expenditure.

The financial crisis that manifested itself in late 2007 resulted in a Europe-wide economic crisis by 2009. As the economic climate worsened, Governments and households were put under increased strain and more focus was placed on prioritising expenditures. Across European countries and their heterogeneous health care systems, this paper examines the initial responsiveness of health expenditures to the crisis and whether recession severity can be considered a predictor of health expenditure growth. In measuring severity we move away from solely gross domestic product (GDP) as a metric and construct a recession severity index predicated on a number of key macroeconomic indicators. We then regress this index on measures of total, public and private health expenditure to identify potential relationships. Analysis suggests that for 2009, the Baltic States, along with Ireland, Italy and Greece, experienced comparatively severe recessions. We find, overall, an initial counter-cyclical response in health spending (both public and private) across countries. However, our analysis finds evidence of a negative relationship between recession severity and changes in certain health expenditures. As a predictor of health expenditure growth in 2009, the derived index is an improvement over GDP change alone.