Time management governs climate resilience and productivity in the coupled rice-wheat cropping systems of eastern India.

India will need to produce 30% more wheat by 2050, and these gains must principally come from intensification in eastern India where low productivity is common. Through a dense network of on-farm surveys for the rice-wheat system in this region, we show that contemporary wheat sowing dates have a central influence on achieved and attainable yields, superseding all other crop management, soil and varietal factors. We estimate that untapped wheat production potential will increase by 69% with achievable adjustments to wheat sowing dates without incurring undesirable trade-offs with rice productivity, irrigation requirements or profitability. Our findings also indicate that transformative gains in wheat yields are only possible in eastern India if rice and wheat are managed as a coupled system. Steps taken to 'keep time' through better management of the annual cropping calendar will pay dividends for food security, profitability and climate resilience now and as a foundation for adaptation to progressive climate change.

Climate and landscape mediate patterns of low lentil productivity in Nepal.

Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) is a cool-season pulse grown in winter cropping cycle in South Asia and provides a major source of nutrition for many low-income households. Lentil productivity is perceived to be sensitive to high rainfall, but few studies document spatial and temporal patterns of yield variation across climate, soil, and agronomic gradients. Using farm survey data from Nepal, this study characterizes patterns of lentil productivity and efficiency for two cropping seasons. Additional insights were derived from on-farm trials conducted over a 5-year period that assess agronomic, drainage, and cultivar interventions. To contextualize the inferences derived from farm surveys and trials, the Stempedia model was used to simulate the severity of Stemphylium blight (Stemphylium botryosum) risk-the principal fungal disease in lentil-with 30 years of historical climate data. Although development efforts in Nepal have prioritized pulse intensification, results confirm that lentil remains a risky enterprise highlighting the prevalence of crop failures (16%), modest yields (353 kg ha-1), and low levels of profitability (US$ 33 ha-1) in wet winters. Nevertheless, site factors such as drainage class influence responses with upland sites performing well in wet winters and lowland sites performing well in dry winters. In wet winters, a phenomena perceived to be increasing, 76% of surveyed farmers reported significant disease pressure and simulations with Stempedia predict that conditions favoring Stemphylium occur in >60% of all years. Nevertheless, simulation results also suggest that these risks can be addressed through earlier planting. Based on the combined results, gains in yield, yield stability, and technical efficiency can be enhanced in western Nepal by: 1) ensuring timely lentil planting to mitigate climate-mediated disease risk, 2) evaluating new lentil lines that may provide enhanced resistance to diseases and waterlogging, and 3) encouraging the emergence of mechanization solutions to overcome labor bottlenecks.

Social inclusion increases with time for zero-tillage wheat in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Sustainable intensification (SI) approaches to agricultural development are urgently needed to meet the growing demand for crop staples while protecting ecosystem services and environmental quality. However, SI initiatives have been criticized for neglecting social welfare outcomes. A recent review found that better-off farmers benefitted disproportionately from SI and highlighted the dearth of studies assessing the equity of outcomes. In this study, we explore the social inclusiveness of zero-tillage (ZT) wheat adoption in Bihar, India. ZT is a proven SI technology for enhancing wheat productivity while boosting profitability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural machinery in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains. With an average landholding size of 0.39 ha, most farmers in Bihar depend on custom-hiring services to access the technology. While service provision models should foster inclusive growth by reducing financial barriers to technology adoption, early evidence suggested that smallholders remained at a disadvantage. Building on this previous research, we use a panel dataset from 961 wheat-growing households that spans a six-year period to analyze ZT adoption dynamics over time while accounting for the role of social networks and access to service provision. Using a heckprobit approach to correct for non-exposure bias, we compare determinants of ZT awareness and use in 2012 and 2015. We apply a multinomial logit model to identify determinants of early adoption, recent adoption, non-adoption, and dis-adoption. Furthermore, we explore the quality of ZT services as an additional dimension of socially-inclusive technology access. We find that the strong initial scale bias in ZT use declined substantially as awareness of the technology increased and the service economy expanded. Land fragmentation replaced total landholding size as a significant adoption determinant, which also affected the quality of ZT services received. Hence, farmers with small but contiguous landholdings appear to have gained a significant degree of access over time. We conclude that early-stage assessments of SI may be misleading, and that private sector-based service provision can contribute to socially inclusive development outcomes as markets mature.

Understanding clients, providers and the institutional dimensions of irrigation services in developing countries: A study of water markets in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated nations that nonetheless has largely achieved staple self-sufficiency. This development has been enabled in part by the rapid proliferation of small-scale irrigation pumps that enabled double rice cropping, as well as by a competitive market system in which farmers purchase water at affordable fee-for-service prices from private irrigation pump owners. Excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have however called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh's groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers' incentives. The study assesses different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers. Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, we empirically examine the structure of irrigation service types and associated market and institutional dimensions. Our findings demonstrate that competition among pump owners, social capital and personal relationships, and economic and agronomic risk perceptions of both pump owners and farmers significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and water pricing methods. Greater competition among pump owners increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services and reduces the likelihood of crop harvest sharing arrangements. Based on these findings, we explore policy implications for enhancing irrigation services and irrigation sustainability in Bangladesh.

Zero-tillage is a proven technology for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: what determines farmer awareness and adoption?

In India, there is increasing recognition among policy-makers of the largely untapped potential of the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) for meeting state- and national-level food needs. Zero-tillage (ZT) is a proven technology for enhancing wheat productivity and, hence, food security in the IGP, while reducing production costs - a 'win-win' scenario that should support rapid technology scaling even though adoption remains modest to date. In order to inform policies and derive recommendations for a more effective extension strategy, this study investigated determinants of ZT adoption in the Eastern IGP using a random sample of 1000 wheat-growing households from Bihar, stratified by ZT adoption status. We corrected for potential non-exposure bias by using a two-stage estimation procedure that differentiates between factors affecting farmers' awareness of ZT and those affecting adoption conditional on awareness. Owing to the relatively nascent stage of ZT diffusion in the area, we emphasized the role of information in the adoption process, including social networks, whereby we allowed for endogenous and exogenous network effects. Only 44% of sample households knew about ZT technology, and there was substantial scale bias in favor of larger scale farmers both with respect to awareness and adoption. Both the adoption behavior and characteristics of the respondents' network members influenced their own awareness and adoption of ZT, particularly among farmers in the smallest landholding tercile. Farmers valued the time-saving potential of ZT, especially under conditions of increasingly unreliable monsoon rains resulting in a delayed rice crop and, consequently, late establishment of wheat which reduces yield. The fact that most farmers accessed ZT via custom-hire services was accounted for in the model, and the importance of proximate service providers confirmed. We conclude that there is need for further awareness-raising campaigns for ZT technology, where-by, apart from mass media, agricultural extension should use contact farmers belonging to different social strata for effective within-village diffusion of messages, especially to the poorer farmers. The social inclusiveness of ZT use can be enhanced by supporting the emergence of more ZT service providers and by developing business models that lower the transaction costs of servicing smaller farms. JEL Classifications O33 . Q55.