Developing Parametric and Nonparametric Models for Model-Informed Precision Dosing: A Quality Improvement Effort in Vancomycin for Patients With Obesity.

BACKGROUND: Both parametric and nonparametric methods have been proposed to support model-informed precision dosing (MIPD). However, which approach leads to better models remains uncertain. Using open-source software, these 2 statistical approaches for model development were compared using the pharmacokinetics of vancomycin in a challenging subpopulation of class 3 obesity. METHODS: Patients on vancomycin at the University of Vermont Medical Center from November 1, 2021, to February 14, 2023, were entered into the MIPD software. The inclusion criteria were body mass index (BMI) of at least 40 kg/m2 and 1 or more vancomycin levels. A parametric model was created using nlmixr2/NONMEM, and a nonparametric model was created using metrics. Then, a priori and a posteriori predictions were evaluated using the normalized root mean squared error (nRMSE) for precision and the mean percentage error (MPE) for bias. The parametric model was evaluated in a simulated MIPD context using an external validation dataset. RESULTS: In total, 83 patients were included in the model development, with a median age of 56.6 years (range: 24-89 years), and a median BMI of 46.3 kg/m2 (range: 40-70.3 kg/m2). Both parametric and nonparametric models were 2-compartmental, with creatinine clearance and fat-free mass as covariates to c clearance and volume parameters, respectively. The a priori MPE and nRMSE for the parametric versus nonparametric models were -6.3% versus 2.69% and 27.2% versus 30.7%, respectively. The a posteriori MPE and RMSE were 0.16% and 0.84%, and 13.8% and 13.1%. The parametric model matched or outperformed previously published models on an external validation dataset (n = 576 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Minimal differences were found in the model structure and predictive error between the parametric and nonparametric approaches for modeling vancomycin class 3 obesity. However, the parametric model outperformed several other models, suggesting that institution-specific models may improve pharmacokinetics management.

Best Practice for Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of Infliximab: Position Statement from the International Association of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring and Clinical Toxicology.

BACKGROUND: Infliximab, an anti-tumor necrosis factor monoclonal antibody, has revolutionized the pharmacological management of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). This position statement critically reviews and examines existing data on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of infliximab in patients with IMIDs. It provides a practical guide on implementing TDM in current clinical practices and outlines priority areas for future research. METHODS: The endorsing TDM of Biologics and Pharmacometrics Committees of the International Association of TDM and Clinical Toxicology collaborated to create this position statement. RESULTS: Accumulating data support the evidence for TDM of infliximab in the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases, with limited investigation in other IMIDs. A universal approach to TDM may not fully realize the benefits of improving therapeutic outcomes. Patients at risk for increased infliximab clearance, particularly with a proactive strategy, stand to gain the most from TDM. Personalized exposure targets based on therapeutic goals, patient phenotype, and infliximab administration route are recommended. Rapid assays and home sampling strategies offer flexibility for point-of-care TDM. Ongoing studies on model-informed precision dosing in inflammatory bowel disease will help assess the additional value of precision dosing software tools. Patient education and empowerment, and electronic health record-integrated TDM solutions will facilitate routine TDM implementation. Although optimization of therapeutic effectiveness is a primary focus, the cost-reducing potential of TDM also merits consideration. CONCLUSIONS: Successful implementation of TDM for infliximab necessitates interdisciplinary collaboration among clinicians, hospital pharmacists, and (quantitative) clinical pharmacologists to ensure an efficient research trajectory.

Performance of Eight Infliximab Population Pharmacokinetic Models in a Cohort of Dutch Children with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Efficacy of infliximab in children with inflammatory bowel disease can be enhanced when serum concentrations are measured and further dosing is adjusted to achieve and maintain a target concentration. Use of a population pharmacokinetic model may help to predict an individual's infliximab dose requirement. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of available infliximab population pharmacokinetic models in an independent cohort of Dutch children with inflammatory bowel disease. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we used data of 70 children with inflammatory bowel disease (443 infliximab concentrations) to evaluate eight models that focused on infliximab pharmacokinetic models in individuals with inflammatory bowel disease, preferably aged ≤ 18 years. Predictive performance was evaluated with prior predictions (based solely on patient-specific covariates) and posterior predictions (based on covariates and infliximab trough concentrations). Model accuracy and precision were calculated with relative bias and relative root mean square error and we determined the classification accuracy at the trough concentration target of ≥ 5 mg/L. RESULTS: The population pharmacokinetic model by Fasanmade was identified to be most appropriate for the total dataset (relative bias before/after therapeutic drug monitoring: -20.7%/11.2% and relative root mean square error before/after therapeutic drug monitoring: 84.1%/51.6%), although differences between models were small and several were deemed suitable for clinical use. For the Fasanmade model, sensitivity and specificity for maximum posterior predictions for the next infliximab trough concentration to be ≥ 5 mg/L were respectively 83.5% and 80% with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.870. CONCLUSIONS: In our paediatric cohort, various models provided acceptable predictive performance, with the Fasanmade model deemed most suitable for clinical use. Model-informed precision dosing can therefore be expected to help to maintain infliximab trough concentrations in the target range.

Maximum a posteriori Bayesian methods out-perform non-compartmental analysis for busulfan precision dosing.

Dose personalization improves patient outcomes for many drugs with a narrow therapeutic index and high inter-individuality variability, including busulfan. Non-compartmental analysis (NCA) and model-based methods like maximum a posteriori Bayesian (MAP) approaches are two methods routinely used for dose optimization. These approaches vary in how they estimate patient-specific pharmacokinetic parameters to inform a dose and the impact of these differences is not well-understood. Using busulfan as an example application and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) as a target exposure metric, these estimation methods were compared using retrospective patient data (N = 246) and simulated precision dosing treatment courses. NCA was performed with or without peak extension, and MAP Bayesian estimation was performed using either the one-compartment Shukla model or the two-compartment McCune model. All methods showed good agreement on real-world data (correlation coefficients of 0.945-0.998) as assessed by Bland-Altman plots, although agreement between NCA and MAP methods was higher during the first dosing interval (0.982-0.994) compared to subsequent dosing intervals (0.918-0.938). In dose adjustment simulations, both NCA and MAP estimated high target attainment (> 98%) although true simulated target attainment was lower for NCA (63-66%) versus MAP (91-93%). The largest differences in AUC estimation were due to different assumptions for the shape of the concentration curve during the infusion phase, followed by how the methods considered time-dependent clearance and concentration-time points collected in earlier intervals. In conclusion, although AUC estimates between the two methods showed good correlation, in a simulated study, MAP lead to higher target attainment. When changing from one method to another, or changing infusion duration and other factors, optimum estimated exposure targets may require adjusting to maintain a consistent exposure.

Personalized Antifungal Therapy Through Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Posaconazole.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Posaconazole is a pharmacotherapeutic pillar for prophylaxis and treatment of invasive fungal diseases. Dose individualization is of utmost importance as achieving adequate antifungal exposure is associated with improved outcome. This study aimed to select and evaluate a model-informed precision dosing strategy for posaconazole. METHODS: Available population pharmacokinetic models for posaconazole administered as a solid oral tablet were extracted from the literature and evaluated using data from a previously published prospective study combined with data collected during routine clinical practice. External evaluation and selection of the most accurate and precise model was based on graphical goodness-of-fit and predictive performance. Measures for bias and imprecision included mean percentage error (MPE) and normalized relative root mean squared error (NRMSE), respectively. Subsequently, the best-performing model was evaluated for its a posteriori fit-for-purpose and its suitability in a limited sampling strategy. RESULTS: Seven posaconazole models were evaluated using 764 posaconazole plasma concentrations from 143 patients. Multiple models showed adequate predictive performance illustrated by acceptable goodness-of-fit and MPE and NRMSE below ± 10% and ± 25%, respectively. In the fit-for-purpose analysis, the selected model showed adequate a posteriori predictive performance. Bias and imprecision were lowest in the presence of two prior measurements. Additionally, this model showed to be useful in a limited sampling strategy as it adequately predicted total posaconazole exposure from one (non-)trough concentration. CONCLUSION: We validated an MIPD strategy for posaconazole for its fit-for-purpose. Thereby, this study is an important first step towards MIPD-supported posaconazole dosage optimization with the goal to improve antifungal treatment in clinical practice.

Clinical decision support for chemotherapy-induced neutropenia using a hybrid pharmacodynamic/machine learning model.

Consensus guidelines recommend use of granulocyte colony stimulating factor in patients deemed at risk of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, however, these risk models are limited in the factors they consider and miss some cases of neutropenia. Clinical decision making could be supported using models that better tailor their predictions to the individual patient using the wealth of data available in electronic health records (EHRs). Here, we present a hybrid pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD)/machine learning (ML) approach that uses predictions and individual Bayesian parameter estimates from a PKPD model to enrich an ML model built on her data. We demonstrate this approach using models developed on a large real-world data set of 9121 patients treated for lymphoma, breast, or thoracic cancer. We also investigate the benefits of augmenting the training data using synthetic data simulated with the PKPD model. We find that PKPD-enrichment of ML models improves prediction of grade 3-4 neutropenia, as measured by higher precision (61%) and recall (39%) compared to PKPD model predictions (47%, 33%) or base ML model predictions (51%, 31%). PKPD augmentation of ML models showed minor improvements in recall (44%) but not precision (56%), and data augmentation required careful tuning to control overfitting its predictions to the PKPD model. PKPD enrichment of ML shows promise for leveraging both the physiology-informed predictions of PKPD and the ability of ML to learn predictor-outcome relationships from large data sets to predict patient response to drugs in a clinical precision dosing context.

Early At-Home Measurement of Adalimumab Concentrations to Guide Anti-TNF Precision Dosing: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Underdosing of adalimumab can result in non-response and poor disease control in patients with rheumatic disease or inflammatory bowel disease. In this pilot study we aimed to predict adalimumab concentrations with population pharmacokinetic model-based Bayesian forecasting early in therapy. METHODS: Adalimumab pharmacokinetic models were identified with a literature search. A fit-for-purpose evaluation of the model was performed for rheumatologic and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients with adalimumab peak (first dose) and trough samples (first and seventh dose) obtained by a volumetric absorptive microsampling technique. Steady state adalimumab concentrations were predicted after the first adalimumab administration. Predictive performance was calculated with mean prediction error (MPE) and normalised root mean square error (RMSE). RESULTS: Thirty-six patients (22 rheumatologic and 14 IBD) were analysed in our study. After stratification for absence of anti-adalimumab antibodies, the calculated MPE was -2.6% and normalised RMSE 24.0%. Concordance between predicted and measured adalimumab serum concentrations falling within or outside the therapeutic window was 75%. Three patients (8.3%) developed detectable concentrations of anti-adalimumab antibodies. CONCLUSION: This prospective study demonstrates that adalimumab concentrations at steady state can be predicted from early samples during the induction phase. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register with trial registry number NTR 7692 ( www.trialregister.nl ).

Evaluation of Neonatal and Paediatric Vancomycin Pharmacokinetic Models and the Impact of Maturation and Serum Creatinine Covariates in a Large Multicentre Data Set.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Infants and neonates present a clinical challenge for dosing drugs with high interindividual variability due to these patients' rapid growth and the interplay between maturation and organ function. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD), which can account for interindividual variability via patient characteristics and Bayesian forecasting, promises to improve individualized dosing strategies in this complex population. Here, we assess the predictive performance of published population pharmacokinetic models describing vancomycin in neonates and infants, and analyze the robustness of these models in the face of clinical uncertainty surrounding covariate values. METHODS: The predictive precision and bias of nine pharmacokinetic models were compared in a large multi-site data set (N = 2061 patients, 5794 drug levels, 28 institutions) of patients aged 0-365 days. The robustness of model predictions to errors in serum creatinine measurements and gestational age was assessed by using recorded values or by replacing covariate values with 0.3, 0.5 or 0.8 mg/dL or with 40 weeks, respectively. RESULTS: Of the nine models, two models (Dao and Jacqz-Aigrain) resulted in predicted concentrations within 2.5 mg/L or 15% of the measured values for at least 60% of population predictions. Within individual models, predictive performance often 2 differed in neonates (0-4 weeks) versus older infants (15-52 weeks). For preterm neonates, imputing gestational age as 40 weeks reduced the accuracy of model predictions. Measured values of serum creatinine improved model predictions compared to using imputed values even in neonates ≤1 week of age. CONCLUSIONS: Several available pharmacokinetic models are suitable for MIPD in infants and neonates. Availability and accuracy of model covariates for patients will be important for guiding dose decision-making.

Clinical Decision Support for Precision Dosing: Opportunities for Enhanced Equity and Inclusion in Health Care.

Precision dosing aims to tailor doses to individual patients with the goal of improving treatment efficacy and avoiding toxicity. Clinical decision support software (CDSS) plays a crucial role in mediating this process, translating knowledge derived from clinical trials and real-world data (RWD) into actionable insights for clinicians to use at the point of care. However, not all patient populations are proportionally represented in clinical trials and other data sources that inform CDSS tools, limiting the applicability of these tools for underrepresented populations. Here, we review some of the limitations of existing CDSS tools and discuss methods for overcoming these gaps. We discuss considerations for study design and modeling to create more inclusive CDSS, particularly with an eye toward better incorporation of biological indicators in place of race, ethnicity, or sex. We also review inclusive practices for collection of these demographic data, during both study design and in software user interface design. Because of the role CDSS plays in both recording routine clinical care data and disseminating knowledge derived from data, CDSS presents a promising opportunity to continuously improve precision dosing algorithms using RWD to better reflect the diversity of patient populations.

Prospective Validation and Refinement of a Population Pharmacokinetic Model of Fludarabine in Children and Young Adults Undergoing Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

Fludarabine is a nucleoside analog with antileukemic and immunosuppressive activity commonly used in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Several fludarabine population pharmacokinetic (popPK) and pharmacodynamic models have been published enabling the movement towards precision dosing of fludarabine in pediatric HCT; however, developed models have not been validated in a prospective cohort of patients. In this multicenter pharmacokinetic study, fludarabine plasma concentrations were collected via a sparse-sampling strategy. A fludarabine popPK model was evaluated and refined using standard nonlinear mixed effects modelling techniques. The previously described fludarabine popPK model well-predicted the prospective fludarabine plasma concentrations. Individuals who received model-based dosing (MBD) of fludarabine achieved significantly more precise overall exposure of fludarabine. The fludarabine popPK model was further improved by both the inclusion of fat-free mass instead of total body weight and a maturation function on fludarabine clearance. The refined popPK model is expected to improve dosing recommendations for children younger than 2 years and patients with higher body mass index. Given the consistency of fludarabine clearance and exposure across its multiple days of administration, therapeutic drug monitoring is not likely to improve targeted exposure attainment.

Evaluating and Improving Neonatal Gentamicin Pharmacokinetic Models Using Aggregated Routine Clinical Care Data.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) can aid dose decision-making for drugs such as gentamicin that have high inter-individual variability, a narrow therapeutic window, and a high risk of exposure-related adverse events. However, MIPD in neonates is challenging due to their dynamic development and maturation and by the need to minimize blood sampling due to low blood volume. Here, we investigate the ability of six published neonatal gentamicin population pharmacokinetic models to predict gentamicin concentrations in routine therapeutic drug monitoring from nine sites in the United State (n = 475 patients). We find that four out of six models predicted with acceptable levels of error and bias for clinical use. These models included known important covariates for gentamicin PK, showed little bias in prediction residuals over covariate ranges, and were developed on patient populations with similar covariate distributions as the one assessed here. These four models were refit using the published parameters as informative Bayesian priors or without priors in a continuous learning process. We find that refit models generally reduce error and bias on a held-out validation data set, but that informative prior use is not uniformly advantageous. Our work informs clinicians implementing MIPD of gentamicin in neonates, as well as pharmacometricians developing or improving PK models for use in MIPD.

Model-Based Tacrolimus Follow-up Dosing in Adult Renal Transplant Recipients: A Simulation Trial.

BACKGROUND: Initial algorithm-based dosing appears to be effective in predicting tacrolimus dose requirement. However, achieving and maintaining the target concentrations is challenging. Model-based follow-up dosing, which considers patient characteristics and pharmacological data, may further personalize treatment. This study investigated whether model-based follow-up dosing could lead to more accurate tacrolimus exposure than standard therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) in kidney transplant recipients after an initial algorithm-based dose. METHODS: This simulation trial included patients from a prospective trial that received an algorithm-based tacrolimus starting dose followed by TDM. For every measured tacrolimus predose concentration (C 0,obs ), model-based dosing advice was simulated using the InsightRX software. Based on previous tacrolimus doses and C 0 , age, body surface area, CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genotypes, hematocrit, albumin, and creatinine, the optimal next dose, and corresponding tacrolimus concentration (C 0,pred ) were predicted. RESULTS: Of 190 tacrolimus C 0 values measured in 59 patients, 121 (63.7%; 95% CI 56.8-70.5) C 0,obs were within the therapeutic range (7.5-12.5 ng/mL) versus 126 (66.3%, 95% CI 59.6-73.0) for C 0,pred ( P = 0.89). The median absolute difference between the tacrolimus C 0 and the target tacrolimus concentration (10.0 ng/mL) was 1.9 ng/mL for C 0,obs versus 1.6 ng/mL for C 0,pred . In a historical cohort of 114 kidney transplant recipients who received a body weight-based starting dose followed by TDM, 172 of 335 tacrolimus C 0 (51.3%) were within the therapeutic range (10.0-15.0 ng/mL). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of an algorithm-based tacrolimus starting dose with model-based follow-up dosing has the potential to minimize under- and overexposure to tacrolimus in the early posttransplant phase, although the additional effect of model-based follow-up dosing on initial algorithm-based dosing seems small.

Population Pharmacokinetic Model Development of Tacrolimus in Pediatric and Young Adult Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

Background: With a notably narrow therapeutic window and wide intra- and interindividual pharmacokinetic (PK) variability, initial weight-based dosing along with routine therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus are employed to optimize its clinical utilization. Both supratherapeutic and subtherapeutic tacrolimus concentrations can result in poor outcomes, thus tacrolimus PK variability is particularly important to consider in the pediatric population given the differences in absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion among children of various sizes and at different stages of development. The primary goals of the current study were to develop a population PK (PopPK) model for tacrolimus IV continuous infusion in the pediatric and young adult hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) population and implement the PopPK model in a clinically available Bayesian forecasting tool. Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted of 111 pediatric and young adult patients who received IV tacrolimus by continuous infusion early in the post-transplant period during HCT from February 2016 to July 2020 at our institution. PopPK model building was performed in NONMEM. The PopPK model building process included identifying structural and random effects models that best fit the data and then identifying which patient-specific covariates (if any) further improved model fit. Results: A total of 1,648 tacrolimus plasma steady-state trough concentrations were included in the PopPK modeling process. A 2-compartment structural model best fit the data. Allometrically-scaled weight was a covariate that improved estimation of both clearance and volume of distribution. Overall, model predictions only showed moderate bias, with minor under-prediction at lower concentrations and minor over-prediction at higher predicted concentrations. The model was implemented in a Bayesian dosing tool and made available at the point-of-care. Discussion: Novel therapeutic drug monitoring strategies for tacrolimus within the pediatric and young adult HCT population are necessary to reduce toxicity and improve efficacy in clinical practice. The model developed presents clinical utility in optimizing the use of tacrolimus by enabling model-guided, individualized dosing of IV, continuous tacrolimus via a Bayesian forecasting platform.

A hybrid machine learning/pharmacokinetic approach outperforms maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation by selectively flattening model priors.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) approaches typically apply maximum a posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation to determine individual pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters with the goal of optimizing future dosing regimens. This process combines knowledge about the individual, in the form of drug levels or pharmacodynamic biomarkers, with prior knowledge of the drug PK in the general population. Use of "flattened priors" (FPs), in which the weight of the model priors is reduced relative to observations about the patient, has been previously proposed to estimate individual PK parameters in instances where the patient is poorly described by the PK model. However, little is known about the predictive performance of FPs and when to apply FPs in MIPD. Here, FP is evaluated in a data set of 4679 adult patients treated with vancomycin. Depending on the PK model, prediction error could be reduced by applying FPs in 42-55% of PK parameter estimations. Machine learning (ML) models could identify instances where FPs would outperform MAPs with a specificity of 81-86%, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) of PK model predictions by 12-22% (0.5-1.2 mg/L) relative to MAP alone. The factors most indicative of the use of FPs were past prediction residuals and bias in past PK predictions. A more clinically practical minimal model was developed using only these two features, reducing RMSE by 5-18% (0.20-0.93 mg/L) relative to MAP. This hybrid ML/PK approach advances the precision dosing toolkit by leveraging the power of ML while maintaining the mechanistic insight and interpretability of PK models.

Model-Based Estimation of Iohexol Plasma Clearance for Pragmatic Renal Function Determination in the Renal Transplantation Setting.

BACKGROUND: Iohexol plasma clearance-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) determination provides an accurate method for renal function evaluation. This technique is increasingly advocated for clinical situations that dictate highly accurate renal function assessment, as an alternative to conventional serum creatinine-based methods with limited accuracy or poor feasibility. In the renal transplantation setting, this particularly applies to living renal transplant donor eligibility screening, renal transplant function monitoring and research purposes. The dependency of current iohexol GFR estimation techniques on extensive sampling, however, has limited its clinical application. We developed a population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling schedules, implemented in the online InsightRX precision dosing platform, to facilitate pragmatic iohexol GFR assessment. METHODS: Iohexol concentrations (n = 587) drawn 5 min to 4 h after administration were available from 67 renal transplant recipients and 41 living renal transplant donor candidates with measured iohexol GFRs of 27-117 mL/min/1.73 m2. These were split into a model development (n = 72) cohort and an internal validation (n = 36) cohort. External validation was performed with 1040 iohexol concentrations from 268 renal transplant recipients drawn between 5 min and 4 h after administration, and extended iohexol curves up to 24 h from 11 random patients with impaired renal function. Limited sampling schedules based on one to four blood draws within 4 h after iohexol administration were evaluated in terms of bias and imprecision, using the mean relative prediction error and mean absolute relative prediction error. The total deviation index and percentage of limited sampling schedule-based GFR predictions within ± 10% of those of the full model (P10) were assessed to aid interpretation. RESULTS: Iohexol pharmacokinetics was best described with a two-compartmental first-order elimination model, allometrically scaled to fat-free mass, with patient type as a covariate on clearance and the central distribution volume. Model validity was confirmed during the internal and external validation. Various limited sampling schedules based on three to four blood draws within 4 h showed excellent predictive performance (mean relative prediction error < ± 0.5%, mean absolute relative prediction error < 3.5%, total deviation index < 5.5%, P10 > 97%). The best limited sampling schedules based on three to four blood draws within 3 h showed reduced predictive performance (mean relative prediction error < ± 0.75%, mean absolute relative prediction error < 5.5%, total deviation index < 9.5%, P10 ≥ 85%), but may be considered for their enhanced clinical feasibility when deemed justified. CONCLUSIONS: Our online pharmacometric tool provides an accurate, pragmatic, and ready-to-use technique for measured GFR-based renal function evaluation for clinical situations where conventional methods lack accuracy or show limited feasibility. Additional adaptation and validation of our model and limited sampling schedules for renal transplant recipients with GFRs below 30 mL/min is warranted before considering this technique in these patients.

Population pharmacokinetics and genetics of oral meltdose tacrolimus (Envarsus) in stable adult liver transplant recipients.

AIMS: Meltdose tacrolimus (Envarsus) is marketed as a formulation with a more consistent exposure. Due to the narrow therapeutic window, therapeutic drug monitoring is essential to maintain adequate exposure. The primary objective of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model of Envarsus among liver transplant patients and select a limited sampling strategy (LSS) for AUC estimation. The secondary objective was to investigate potential covariates including CYP3A/IL genotype suitable for initial dose optimization when converting to Envarsus. METHODS: Adult liver transplant patients were converted from prolonged release tacrolimus (Advagraf) to Envarsus and blood samples were obtained using whole blood and dried blood spot sampling. Subsequently the population PK parameters were estimated using nonlinear-mixed effect modelling. Demographic factors, and recipient and donor CYP3A4, CYP3A5, IL-6, -10 and -18 genotype were tested as potential covariates to explain interindividual variability. RESULTS: Fifty-five patients were included. A 2-compartment model with delayed absorption was the most suitable to describe population PK parameters. The population PK parameters were as follows: clearance, 3.27 L/h; intercompartmental clearance, 9.6 L/h; volume of distribution of compartments 1 and 2, 95 and 500 L, respectively. No covariates were found to significantly decrease interindividual variability. The best 3-point LSS was t = 0,4,8 with a median bias of 1.8% (-12.5-12.5). CONCLUSIONS: The LSS can be used to adequately predict the AUC. No clinically relevant covariates known to influence the PK of Envarsus, including CYP3A status, were identified and therefore do not seem useful for initial dose optimization.

The Relationship Between Busulfan Exposure and Achievement of Sustained Donor Myeloid Chimerism in Patients with Non-Malignant Disorders.

The overall objective of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in patients with non-malignant conditions involves replacing a dysfunctional or absent cell or gene product for disease correction. It is unclear whether lower busulfan exposure may be sufficient in this population to facilitate durable myeloid engraftment and limit toxicity. Given that neither the ideal level of mixed myeloid chimerism for specific non-malignant diseases nor how to condition a patient to achieve stable mixed myeloid chimerism is fully known, we sought to analyze the relationships among busulfan exposure, myeloid chimerism, and outcomes in patients with non-malignant conditions receiving busulfan as a part of combination pretransplant conditioning at our institution. This was a single-center, retrospective study including pediatric patients with a variety of non-malignant disorders who underwent allogeneic HCT at the University of California San Francisco Benioff Children's Hospital from March 2007 to June 2018. The busulfan cumulative area under the curve (cAUC) was estimated using a validated population pharmacokinetic model and nonlinear mixed effects modeling. Median busulfan cAUC for all patients was 70 mg·h/L (range, 53 to 108). All of the 29 patients with a busulfan cAUC of ≥70 mg·h/L achieved long-term disease correction with full or stable mixed (>20%) myeloid chimerism, compared to 78.5% (22/28) of patients with a cAUC of <70 mg·h/L (P = .01). Overall ksurvival was evaluated up to 3 years and was identical in patients with busulfan cAUC < 70 mg·h/L and patients with busulfan cAUC ≥70 mg·h/L (96% versus 93%; P = .92). Only three patients died, at days 65, 164 and 980 days post-HCT. Severe busulfan-related toxicities and graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD) were rare, with veno-occlusive disease occurring in four patients (7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome in three patients (5%), and GVHD in five patients (9%). These results demonstrate excellent outcomes and extremely low rates of toxicity across our entire cohort. Based on the results of this study, we recommend a busulfan exposure target of 75 mg·h/L (range, 70 to 80) in all non-malignant patients receiving allogeneic HCT to ensure optimal exposure for achievement of high-level stable myeloid chimerism.

Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Everolimus: External Validation in Adult Renal Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The immunosuppressant everolimus is increasingly applied in renal transplantation. Its extensive pharmacokinetic variability necessitates therapeutic drug monitoring, typically based on whole-blood trough concentrations (C0). Unfortunately, therapeutic drug monitoring target attainment rates are often unsatisfactory and patients with on-target exposure may still develop organ rejection. As everolimus displays erythrocyte partitioning, haematocrit-normalised whole-blood exposure has been suggested as a more informative therapeutic drug monitoring marker. Furthermore, model-informed precision dosing has introduced options for more sophisticated dose adaptation. We have previously developed a mechanistic population pharmacokinetic model, which described everolimus plasma pharmacokinetics and enabled estimation of haematocrit-normalised whole-blood exposure. Here, we externally evaluated this model for its utility for model-informed precision dosing. METHODS: The retrospective dataset included 4123 pharmacokinetic observations from routine clinical therapeutic drug monitoring in 173 renal transplant recipients. Model appropriateness was confirmed with a visual predictive check. A fit-for-purpose analysis was conducted to evaluate whether the model accurately and precisely predicted a future C0 or area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) from prior pharmacokinetic observations. Bias and imprecision were expressed as the mean percentage prediction error (MPPE) and mean absolute percentage prediction error (MAPE), stratified on 6 months post-transplant. Additionally, we compared dose adaptation recommendations of conventional C0-based therapeutic drug monitoring and C0- or AUC-based model-informed precision dosing, and assessed the percentage of differences between observed and haematocrit-normalised C0 (∆C0) and AUC (∆AUC) exceeding ± 20%. RESULTS: The model showed adequate accuracy and precision for C0 and AUC prediction at ≤ 6 months (MPPEC0: 8.1 ± 2.5%, MAPEC0: 26.8 ± 2.1%; MPPEAUC: - 9.7 ± 5.1%, MAPEAUC: 13.3 ± 3.9%) and > 6 months post-transplant (MPPEC0: 4.7 ± 2.0%, MAPEC0: 25.4 ± 1.4%; MPPEAUC: - 0.13 ± 4.8%, MAPEAUC: 13.3 ± 2.8%). On average, dose adaptation recommendations derived from C0-based and AUC-based model-informed precision dosing were 2.91 ± 0.01% and 13.7 ± 0.18% lower than for conventional C0-based therapeutic drug monitoring at ≤ 6 months, and 0.93 ± 0.01% and 3.14 ± 0.04% lower at > 6 months post-transplant. The ∆C0 and ∆AUC exceeded ± 20% on 13.6% and 14.3% of occasions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that our population pharmacokinetic model was able to accurately and precisely predict future everolimus exposure from prior pharmacokinetic measurements. In addition, we illustrated the potential added value of performing everolimus therapeutic drug monitoring with haematocrit-normalised whole-blood concentrations. Our results provide reassurance to implement this methodology in clinical practice for further evaluation.

Continuous Learning in Model-Informed Precision Dosing: A Case Study in Pediatric Dosing of Vancomycin.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) leverages pharmacokinetic (PK) models to tailor dosing to an individual patient's needs, improving attainment of therapeutic drug exposure targets and thus potentially improving drug efficacy or reducing adverse events. However, selection of an appropriate model for supporting clinical decision making is not trivial. Error or bias in dose selection may arise if the selected model was developed in a population not fully representative of the intended MIPD population. One previously proposed approach is continuous learning, in which an initial model is used in MIPD and then updated as additional data becomes available. In this case study of pediatric vancomycin MIPD, the potential benefits of the continuous learning approach are investigated. Five previously published models were evaluated and found to perform adequately in a data set of 273 pediatric patients in the intensive care unit. Additionally, two predefined simple PK models were fitted on separate populations of 50-350 patients in an approach mimicking clinical implementation of automated continuous learning. With these continuous learning models, prediction error using population PK parameters could be reduced by 2-13% compared with previously published models. Sample sizes of at least 200 patients were found suitable for capturing the interindividual variability in vancomycin at this institution, with limited benefits of larger data sets. Although comprised mostly of trough samples, these sparsely sampled routine clinical data allowed for reasonable estimation of simulated area under the curve (AUC). Together, these findings lay the foundations for a continuous learning MIPD approach.