Increasing fire frequency and severity will increase habitat loss for a boreal forest indicator species.

Climate change will lead to more frequent and more severe fires in some areas of boreal forests, affecting the distribution and availability of late-successional forest communities. These forest communities help to protect globally significant carbon reserves beneath permafrost layers and provide habitat for many animal species, including forest-dwelling caribou. Many caribou populations are declining, yet the mechanisms by which changing fire regimes could affect caribou declines are poorly understood. We analyzed resource selection of 686 GPS-collared female caribou from three ecotypes and 15 populations in a ~600,000 km2 region of northwest Canada and eastern Alaska. These populations span a wide gradient of fire frequency but experience low levels of human-caused habitat disturbance. We used a mixed-effects modeling framework to characterize caribou resource selection in response to burns at different seasons and spatiotemporal scales, and to test for functional responses in resource selection to burn availability. We also tested mechanisms driving observed selection patterns using burn severity and lichen cover data. Caribou avoided burns more strongly during winter relative to summer and at larger spatiotemporal scales relative to smaller scales. During the winter, caribou consistently avoided burns at both spatiotemporal scales as burn availability increased, indicating little evidence of a functional response. However, they decreased their avoidance of burns during summer as burn availability increased. Burn availability explained more variation in caribou selection for burns than ecotype. Within burns, caribou strongly avoided severely burned areas in winter, and this avoidance lasted nearly 30 years after a fire. Caribou within burns also selected higher cover of terrestrial lichen (an important caribou food source). We found a negative relationship between burn severity and lichen cover, confirming that caribou avoidance of burns was consistent with lower lichen abundance. Consistent winter avoidance of burns and severely burned areas suggests that caribou will experience increasing winter habitat loss as fire frequency and severity increase. Our results highlight the potential for climate-induced alteration of natural disturbance regimes to affect boreal biodiversity through habitat loss. We suggest that management strategies prioritizing protection of core winter range habitat with lower burn probabilities would provide important climate-change refugia for caribou.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions.

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in "bad" years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Trophic consequences of terrestrial eutrophication for a threatened ungulate.

Changes in primary productivity have the potential to substantially alter food webs, with positive outcomes for some species and negative outcomes for others. Understanding the environmental context and species traits that give rise to these divergent outcomes is a major challenge to the generality of both theoretical and applied ecology. In aquatic systems, nutrient-mediated eutrophication has led to major declines in species diversity, motivating us to seek terrestrial analogues using a large-mammal system across 598 000 km2 of the Canadian boreal forest. These forests are undergoing some of the most rapid rates of land-use change on Earth and are home to declining caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Using satellite-derived estimates of primary productivity, coupled with estimates of moose (Alces alces) and wolf (Canis lupus) abundance, we used path analyses to discriminate among hypotheses explaining how habitat alteration can affect caribou population growth. Hypotheses included food limitation, resource dominance by moose over caribou, and apparent competition with predators shared between moose and caribou. Results support apparent competition and yield estimates of wolf densities (1.8 individuals 1000 km-2) above which caribou populations decline. Our multi-trophic analysis provides insight into the cascading effects of habitat alteration from forest cutting that destabilize terrestrial predator-prey dynamics. Finally, the path analysis highlights why conservation actions directed at the proximate cause of caribou decline have been more successful in the near term than those directed further along the trophic chain.

Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic.

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.