Geo-spatial risk factor analysis for drug overdose death in South Florida from 2014 to 2019, and the independent contribution of social determinants of health.

PURPOSE: The physical environment and social determinants of health have been shown to influence health behaviors including drug use and fatal drug overdose. The current research examines the effects of the built environment, social determinants of health measures and aggregated risk from the built environment at neighborhood-level on drug overdose death locations in Miami-Dade County, Florida. METHODS: Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) was used to assess the place features risk factors that significantly increase the risk of drug overdose death spatially in Miami-Dade County ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, Florida from 2014 to 2019. An aggregated neighborhood risk of fatal drug overdose measure was developed by averaging the risk per grid cell from the RTM within census block groups each year. Six logistic and zero-inflated regression models were built to examine the effects of three indices of incident-specific social determinants of health (IS-SDH) measures and aggregated risk measures separately, and simultaneously on drug overdose death locations each year. RESULTS: Seven place features including parks, bus stops, restaurants and grocery stores were significantly related to the occurrence of fatal drug overdoses. When examined separately, one or more indices of the IS-SDH were significant covariates of drug overdose locations in some years. When examined simultaneously, the three indices of the IS-SDH and aggregated risk of fatal drug overdose measure could be all significant in certain years. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of high-risk areas and place features identified from the RTM related to drug overdose deaths may be used to inform the placement of treatment and prevention resources. A multi-factor approach that combines an aggregated neighborhood risk measure reflecting the risk from the built environment and the incident-specific social determinants of health measures can be used to identify the drug overdose death locations in certain years.

Cholera deaths in Soho, London, 1854: Risk Terrain Modeling for epidemiological investigations.

Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) is a spatial analysis technique used to diagnose environmental conditions that lead to hazardous outcomes. Originally developed for applications to violent crime analysis, RTM is utilized here to analyze Dr. John Snow's data from the 1854 cholera outbreak in London to demonstrate its potential value to contemporary epidemiological investigations. Dr. Snow saved countless lives when he traced the source of the cholera outbreak to a specific water pump through inductive reasoning, which he communicated through maps and spatial evidence. His methods have since inspired several fields of scientific inquiry. Informed by the extant research on RTM, we speculated that it could have helped test Dr. Snow's hypothesis about cholera and empirically identified the sole source of contaminated well water. We learned that it could and, although it was not available to Dr. Snow in the 1800s, we discuss RTM's implications for present-day research and practice as it relates to the analysis, prevention and treatment of cholera and other public health threats around the world.

Leading causes of unintentional and intentional injury mortality: United States, 2000-2009.

OBJECTIVES: We have described national trends for the 5 leading external causes of injury mortality. METHODS: We used negative binomial regression and annual underlying cause-of-death data for US residents for 2000 through 2009. RESULTS: Mortality rates for unintentional poisoning, unintentional falls, and suicide increased by 128%, 71%, and 15%, respectively. The unintentional motor vehicle traffic crash mortality rate declined 25%. Suicide ranked first as a cause of injury mortality, followed by motor vehicle traffic crashes, poisoning, falls, and homicide. Females had a lower injury mortality rate than did males. The adjusted fall mortality rate displayed a positive age gradient. Blacks and Hispanics had lower adjusted motor vehicle traffic crash and suicide mortality rates and higher adjusted homicide rates than did Whites, and a lower unadjusted total injury mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for suicide, poisoning, and falls rose substantially over the past decade. Suicide has surpassed motor vehicle traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality. Comprehensive traffic safety measures have successfully reduced the national motor vehicle traffic crash mortality rate. Similar efforts will be required to diminish the burden of other injury.

Is counter-terrorism policy evidence-based? What works, what harms, and what is unknown / ¿Está basada la política antiterrorista en la evidencia? Lo que es efectivo, lo que es perjudicial, y lo desconocido

One of the central concerns surrounding counter-terrorism interventions today, given the attention and money spent on them, is whether such interventions are effective. To explore this issue, we conducted a general review of terrorism literature as well as a Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism strategies. In this article, we summarize some of our findings from these works. Overall, we found an almost complete absence of evaluation research on counter-terrorism strategies and conclude that counter-terrorism policy is not evidence-based. The findings of this review emphasise the need for government leaders, policy makers, researchers, and funding agencies to include and insist on evaluations of the effectiveness of these programs in their agendas (AU)

Una de las mayores preocupaciones de las políticas antiterroristas es su efectividad, dado el gasto enorme que suponen. Para explorar este punto llevamos a cabo una revisión sobre la literatura en general del terrorismo, así como una revisión Campbell sobre las estrategias antiterroristas. En conjunto hallamos casi una ausencia completa de evidencia sobre estos programas, y concluimos que la política antiterrorista no está basada en la evidencia. Esta revisión enfatiza la necesidad de que los políticos, los investigadores y los responsables de la gestión de estas políticas acentúen la necesidad de promover la evaluación de la efectividad de esos programas (AU)

Is counter-terrorism policy evidence-based? What works, what harms, and what is unknown.

Is counter-terrorism policy evidence-based? What works, what harms, and what is unknown. One of the central concerns surrounding counter-terrorism interventions today, given the attention and money spent on them, is whether such interventions are effective. To explore this issue, we conducted a general review of terrorism literature as well as a Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism strategies. In this article, we summarize some of our findings from these works. Overall, we found an almost complete absence of evaluation research on counter-terrorism strategies and conclude that counter-terrorism policy is not evidence-based. The findings of this review emphasise the need for government leaders, policy makers, researchers, and funding agencies to include and insist on evaluations of the effectiveness of these programs in their agendas.