Predicting Goal Attainment in Process-Oriented Behavioral Interventions Using a Data-Driven System Identification Approach.

Behavioral interventions (such as those developed to increase physical activity, achieve smoking cessation, or weight loss) can be represented as dynamic process systems incorporating a multitude of factors, ranging from cognitive (internal) to environmental (external) influences. This facilitates the application of system identification and control engineering methods to address questions such as: what drives individuals to improve health behaviors (such as engaging in physical activity)? In this paper, the goal is to efficiently estimate personalized, dynamic models which in turn will lead to control systems that can optimize this behavior. This problem is examined in system identification applied to the Just Walk study that aimed to increase walking behavior in sedentary adults. The paper presents a Discrete Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (DSPSA)-based modeling of the Goal Attainment construct estimated using AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (ARX) models. Feature selection of participants and ARX order selection is achieved through the DSPSA algorithm, which efficiently handles computationally expensive calculations. DSPSA can search over large sets of features as well as regressor structures in an informed, principled manner to model behavioral data within reasonable computational time. DSPSA estimation highlights the large individual variability in motivating factors among participants in Just Walk, thus emphasizing the importance of a personalized approach for optimized behavioral interventions.

Idiographic Dynamic Modeling for Behavioral Interventions with Mixed Data Partitioning and Discrete Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation.

This paper presents the use of discrete simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (DSPSA) as a routine method to efficiently determine features and parameters of idiographic (i.e. single subject) dynamic models for personalized behavioral interventions using various partitions of estimation and validation data. DSPSA is demonstrated as a valuable method to search over model features and regressor orders of AutoRegressive with eXogenous input estimated models using participant data from Just Walk (a behavioral intervention to promote physical activity in sedentary adults); results of DSPSA are compared to those of exhaustive search. In Just Walk, DSPSA efficiently and quickly estimates models of walking behavior, which can then be used to develop control systems to optimize the impacts of behavioral interventions. The use of DSPSA to evaluate models using various partitions of individual data into estimation and validation data sets also highlights data partitioning as an important feature of idiographic modeling that should be carefully considered.

Model Personalization in Behavioral Interventions using Model-on-Demand Estimation and Discrete Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation.

This paper presents the use of discrete Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (DSPSA) to optimize dynamical models meaningful for personalized interventions in behavioral medicine, with emphasis on physical activity. DSPSA is used to determine an optimal set of model features and parameter values which would otherwise be chosen either through exhaustive search or be specified a priori. The modeling technique examined in this study is Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation, which synergistically manages local and global modeling, and represents an appealing alternative to traditional approaches such as ARX estimation. The combination of DSPSA and MoD in behavioral medicine can provide individualized models for participant-specific interventions. MoD estimation, enhanced with a DSPSA search, can be formulated to provide not only better explanatory information about a participant's physical behavior but also predictive power, providing greater insight into environmental and mental states that may be most conducive for participants to benefit from the actions of the intervention. A case study from data collected from a representative participant of the Just Walk intervention is presented in support of these conclusions.