Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts.

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers' ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.

Megacity pumping and preferential flow threaten groundwater quality.

Many of the world's megacities depend on groundwater from geologically complex aquifers that are over-exploited and threatened by contamination. Here, using the example of Dhaka, Bangladesh, we illustrate how interactions between aquifer heterogeneity and groundwater exploitation jeopardize groundwater resources regionally. Groundwater pumping in Dhaka has caused large-scale drawdown that extends into outlying areas where arsenic-contaminated shallow groundwater is pervasive and has potential to migrate downward. We evaluate the vulnerability of deep, low-arsenic groundwater with groundwater models that incorporate geostatistical simulations of aquifer heterogeneity. Simulations show that preferential flow through stratigraphy typical of fluvio-deltaic aquifers could contaminate deep (>150 m) groundwater within a decade, nearly a century faster than predicted through homogeneous models calibrated to the same data. The most critical fast flowpaths cannot be predicted by simplified models or identified by standard measurements. Such complex vulnerability beyond city limits could become a limiting factor for megacity groundwater supplies in aquifers worldwide.