Estimating drowning deaths in Northern Iran using capture-recapture method.

BACKGROUND: Descriptive epidemiological study has shown that drowning is a problem health in low and middle income countries. To analyze records of drowning deaths from two injury registry systems, to ascertain a true estimate of drowning-mortality, it can help to follow up drowning prevention policy. METHODS: This study uses capture-recapture methods to arrive at a more accurate estimate of the number of drowning events occurring over a one-year period in Guilan and Mazandran Provinces, in northern Iran. Records from the Iran's Forensic Medical System and Death Registry System were compared, using five matching approaches based on various combinations of the following variables: gender, place of drowning, date of death, victim age, name, region of residence, and/or place of residence. RESULTS: The results revealed that the estimated number of drowning cases in the study population is much higher than official figures, ranging from 5.26 to 8.25 per 100,000 residents compared to the national figure of 4.5 per 100,000. The completeness of Death Registry System records for drowning was 70% of corrected estimates while the completeness of records from Forensic Medicine was 54.4%. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the use of capture-recapture methodology may provide better accuracy in measuring drowning events. This method may also help reduce bias in the estimate of incidence rates and comparison of different populations.

Unintentional drowning in northern Iran: a population-based study.

The Iranian Ministry of Health documented that about 1500 people died from drowning annually in Iran between years 2000 and 2001. This study is a descriptive, retrospective, population-based analysis of 342 unintentional drowning deaths occurring to residents and tourists in Guilan and Mazandran Provinces in Iran over a 1-year period (2005-2006), using multiple data sources. The findings from this study demonstrate that the drowning rate for residents of the study population, 4.24 per 100,000, is much higher than drowning rates for populations in developed economies in Europe. Risk factors for drowning in the study populations include male gender, young age, and swimming in unsupervised areas. Drownings occurred most frequently in rivers, followed by canals and lakes. While much more remains to be done to investigate the problems associated with drowning deaths and injuries in Iran, the information obtained from this study can help point the way to targeted interventions.