An Ensemble Approach for the Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus Using a Soft Voting Classifier with an Explainable AI.

Diabetes is a chronic disease that continues to be a primary and worldwide health concern since the health of the entire population has been affected by it. Over the years, many academics have attempted to develop a reliable diabetes prediction model using machine learning (ML) algorithms. However, these research investigations have had a minimal impact on clinical practice as the current studies focus mainly on improving the performance of complicated ML models while ignoring their explainability to clinical situations. Therefore, the physicians find it difficult to understand these models and rarely trust them for clinical use. In this study, a carefully constructed, efficient, and interpretable diabetes detection method using an explainable AI has been proposed. The Pima Indian diabetes dataset was used, containing a total of 768 instances where 268 are diabetic, and 500 cases are non-diabetic with several diabetic attributes. Here, six machine learning algorithms (artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), AdaBoost, XGBoost) have been used along with an ensemble classifier to diagnose the diabetes disease. For each machine learning model, global and local explanations have been produced using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), which are represented in different types of graphs to help physicians in understanding the model predictions. The balanced accuracy of the developed weighted ensemble model was 90% with a F1 score of 89% using a five-fold cross-validation (CV). The median values were used for the imputation of the missing values and the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTETomek) was used to balance the classes of the dataset. The proposed approach can improve the clinical understanding of a diabetes diagnosis and help in taking necessary action at the very early stages of the disease.

The severity prediction of the binary and multi-class cardiovascular disease - A machine learning-based fusion approach.

In today's world, a massive amount of data is available in almost every sector. This data has become an asset as we can use this enormous amount of data to find information. Mainly health care industry contains many data consisting of patient and disease-related information. By using the machine learning technique, we can look for hidden data patterns to predict various diseases. Recently CVDs, or cardiovascular disease, have become a leading cause of death around the world. The number of death due to CVDs is frightening. That is why many researchers are trying their best to design a predictive model that can save many lives using the data mining model. In this research, some fusion models have been constructed to diagnose CVDs along with its severity. Machine learning(ML) algorithms like artificial neural network, SVM, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and AdaBoost have been applied to the heart disease dataset to predict disease. Randomoversampler only for multi-class classification to make the imbalanced dataset balanced. To improve the performance of classification, a weighted score fusion approach was taken. At first, the models were trained. After training, two algorithms' decision was combined using a weighted sum rule. A total of three fusion models have been developed from the six ML algorithms. The results were promising in the performance parameter. The proposed approach has been experimented with different test training ratios for binary and multiclass classification problems, and for both of them, the fusion models performed well. The highest accuracy for multiclass classification was found as 75%, and it was 95% for binary.

Forecasting the spread of the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic using time series analysis in Bangladesh.

During the third wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Bangladesh, the death and infection rate due to this devastating virus has increased dramatically. The rapid spread of the virus is one of the reasons for this terrible condition. So, identifying the subsequent cases of coronavirus can be a great tool to reduce the mortality and infection rate. In this article, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average-ARIMA(8,1,7) model to estimate the expected daily number of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh based on the data from April 20, 2021, to July 4, 2021. The ARIMA model showed the best results among the five executed models over Autoregressive Model (AR), Moving Average (MA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), and Rolling Forest Origin. The findings of this article were used to anticipate a rise in daily cases for the next month in Bangladesh, which can help governments plan policies to prevent the spread of the virus. The forecasting outcome indicated that this new trend(named delta variant) in Bangladesh would continue increasing and might reach 18327 daily new cases within four weeks if strict rules and regulations are not applied to control the spread of COVID-19.