[Increase in uro-oncological health care needs due to demographic change: Extrapolation of cancer incidence numbers through 2030 as a basis for directed regional planning]. / Zunahme des uroonkologischen Versorgungsbedarfs durch demographischen Wandel: Hochrechnung von Krebsneuerkrankungsfallzahlen bis 2030 als Basis gezielter regionaler Planung.

BACKGROUND: In Germany a considerable increase in the number of urological cancers is expected due to demographic change. Small-scale analyses are important for directed planning of uro-oncological health care due to significant regional variability in the demographic development. In this study the number of new urological cancer cases was extrapolated on the county level for Lower Saxony. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The incidence rates for penile (C60), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), renal pelvis/ureter (C65-66) and bladder cancer (C67, D09.0, D41.4) were extrapolated for counties and urban communes from 2010 to 2020 and to 2030 based on the regional population forecast of the State Office for Statistics of Lower Saxony (2009-2031) and gender- and 5-year age-specific incidence rates for Lower Saxony (averaged for 2006-2010). RESULTS: From 2010 (n=12.668) to 2020 and 2030, increases of 15% (n = 14.519; men: 15%, women: 10%) and 28% (n=16.201; men: 29%, women: 20%) are expected in urological cancers for Lower Saxony. The greatest rise is predicted for prostate cancer (2030: 31%, n = 9.732; C67 + D09.0 + D41.4: 30%; C60: 28%; C65-66: 27%; C64: 19%). Only testicular carcinomas are expected to decrease (-13%). The increase varies considerably between regions. In the counties the rates range from 7% (2030; C61: 10%) in Osterode am Harz to 63% in Vechta (C61: 70%). In the urban communes the greatest increase is predicted for Oldenburg (total: 40%; C61: 45%) and the lowest increase for Wolfsburg (total: 3%; C61: 3%). CONCLUSION: Demographic change is expected to lead to a sharp increase in urological cancers. In health care planning (e.g. specialist care) regionally very heterogeneous developments and in particular high growth and close to home care of more and more older and less mobile cancer sufferers, respectively, must be considered for rural areas.

[Active surveillance of small-scale spatial cancer clusters: presentation of a new monitoring approach for the epidemiological Cancer Registry of Lower Saxony]. / Aktives Monitoring kleinräumiger Krebshäufungen : Vorstellung eines neuen Monitoringkonzeptes für das Epidemiologische Krebsregister Niedersachsen.

BACKGROUND: Cancer registries often receive inquiries on possible cancer clusters. In 2010, the Cancer Registry of Lower Saxony reported on a spatial leukemia accumulation in the community of Asse. As a result, the Cancer Registry was engaged in developing an approach for a regional cancer monitoring program by the federal government. The modular approach involves a two-stage process. First, all regional monitoring areas are under surveillance, and in the second phase, noticeable areas only are observed further. A positive confirmation test is regarded as an initial concern and may lead to further investigations. METHODS: The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) is used in the first stage. For confirmation, the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) is applied in the second stage. All new observations are tested at a given time. The SPRT tests the null hypothesis (no increase) and an alternative hypothesis (increase) leading to three possible conclusions: warning, all-clear, or further surveillance necessary. RESULTS: A high false alarm rate due to clustering by chance is to be considered with multiple statistical testing. The number of false alarms depends on the number of tested areas, diagnoses, subgroup analyses, and time periods. Preliminary considerations comprise 400 spatial areas, three diagnosis groups, no subgroup analyses, and a biannual first-stage testing. Guidelines for the level of significance and for detecting an increase in incidence will be necessary for the assessment of the monitoring parameters. DISCUSSION: Before running the monitoring program, a number of questions have to handled politically; e.g., how many false alarms can be handled, the impact on the population involved, and existing risk communication structures.

[Memorandum registry for health services research]. / Memorandum Register für die Versorgungsforschung.

On August 30, 2010, the German Network for Health Services Research [Deutsches Netzwerk Versorgungsforschung e. V. (DNVF e. V.)] approved the Memorandum III "Methods for Health Services Research", supported by their member societies mentioned as authors and published in this Journal [Gesundheitswesen 2010; 72: 739-748]. Registries in Health Services Research vary in their aims and research questions as well as in their designs, methods of data collection, and statistical analyses. This paper aims to provide both a methodological guideline for developers to ensure a high quality of a planned registry and, to provide an instrument for users of data from registries to assess their overall quality. First, the paper provides a definition of registries and presents an overview of objectives in Health Services Research where registries can be useful. Second, several areas of methodological importance for the development of registries are presented. This includes the different phases of a registry (i. e., conceptual and preliminary design, implementation), technical organisation of a registry, statistical analysis, reporting of results, data protection, and ethical/legal aspects. From these areas, several criteria are deduced to allow the assessment of the quality of a registry. Finally, a checklist to assess a registry's quality is presented.

[Cancer survival analysis in Germany--heading towards representative and comparable findings]. / Überlebenschancen von Krebspatienten in Deutschland--auf dem Weg zu repräsentativen, vergleichbaren Aussagen.

Cancer is an important issue within the German health care system with an estimated annual number of 435 000 incident cases and almost 210 000 deaths. Data of population-based cancer registries enable us to identify improvements of survival in oncological patients due to progress in therapeutic care and secondary prevention, as well as to investigate regional and international differences of this outcome. Comparing cancer survival rates, however, requires considering the impact of both methodical approaches and data quality. Potential factors of influence like algorithms, reference population, completeness of case ascertainment and quality of follow-up are discussed. For the first time harmonized proceedings are recommended in order to achieve comparability of population-based cancer survival rates in Germany.

[Screening for colorectal cancer: what is the most effective strategy?]. / Früherkennung kolorektaler Tumoren: Gibt es die optimale Screeningmassnahme?

Colorectal cancer is one of the most common cancers in Western countries. The long natural history of colorectal cancer provides opportunities for detection of early stage cancer and for prevention of cancer by removal of adenomas. An effective screening technique should significantly reduce morbidity and mortality in the population. Several tests are available to screen healthy subjects at average risk for colorectal cancer: total colonoscopy, combined sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood test (FOBT), FOBT alone. At the present time clear evidence for the most effective screening strategy is not available. Colonoscopy screening in Germany needs an adequate tool to evaluate the programme. Follow up is essential and cancer registries would be an important partner.

[Malignant melanoma of the skin as evidenced by epidemiological cancer registries in Germany -- incidence, clinical parameters, variations in recording]. / Das maligne Melanom der Haut in epidemiologischen Krebsregistern in Deutschland -- Inzidenz, klinische Parameter, Variationen in der Erhebung.

PURPOSE: To exclude bias of registration evidenced by relevant differences among German cancer registries in the incidence of malignant melanoma (melanocarcinoma). METHODS: Cancer registries in the Federal German states of Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Bremen, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, the Munich District and the County of Münster featured registration data of malignant melanoma diagnosed in 2000 A. D. Figures and incidence rates, distribution of T-stage of the primary tumour were analysed as well as the distribution of sources reporting melanoma to the registries. Details of outpatient treatment of cutaneous melanoma by dermatologists in private practice were investigated. RESULTS: Data of 2,471 malignant melanoma cases were analysed. The highest age standardised incidence rates were 15.7 per 100,000 women and 19 per 100,000 men while the lowest rates were reported as 7.8 and 6.6 per 100,000, respectively (European standard). The proportion of stage T1 tumours varied between 21.5 and 59.2 %. We observed remarkable variations in the structure of reporting sources among the registries. The proportion of reports from dermatologists in private practice varied between 2.2 and 62 %, with higher proportions associated with more T1-T2 tumours but also lower completeness of stage reports. No clear association was identified between incidence of melanoma and reporting sources. CONCLUSION: Malignant melanomas of smaller size (T1-T2) are reported more frequently in an outpatient setting but very often without data. Hospital departments of dermatology contribute high-quality data with better completeness especially for later stage melanomas. Desirable inclusion of notifications from nationwide operating dermatopathology laboratories is complicated by the Federal German structure of cancer registration. Especially in case of malignant melanoma of the skin notification reports from all sectors of the health care system are imperative for valid epidemiological results.

[Contributions of the epidemiological cancer registries to the evaluation of mammography screening in Germany]. / Beiträge bevölkerungsbezogener Krebsregister zur Evaluation des bundesweiten Mammographie-Screenings. Erste Ergebnisse zu Brustkrebsinzidenz und T-Stadienverteilung von Teilnehmerinnen des Mammographie-Screenings Weser-Ems (MSWE) im bevölkerungsbezogenen Vergleich.

INTRODUCTION: Before the country-wide introduction of mammography screening, testing of the organised screening took place in Weser-Ems, Bremen and Wiesbaden. Important quality assurance parameters (carcinomas detected during checkup intervals, tumour stage distribution, breast cancer incidence rate, breast cancer mortality rate) are to be evaluated via epidemiological cancer registries. For the model region Weser-Ems (MSWE) the record linkage with the epidemiological cancer registry Lower Saxony (EKN) was successfully accomplished. The technical realisation and first comparison analyses for the development of breast cancer incidence and of tumour size are reported. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The target population of the MSWE was 22,600 women aged 50-69 years. They were invited since May 2002 to mammography screening with a screening interval of two years. The record linkage of 12,913 women who participated until February 2004 in the MSWE, was realised by the use of the control number system of the epidemiological cancer registries. The observation time was between 6 and 25 month (median: 15 month). Reference population for comparison analyses were all women between 50 and 69 years of the remaining governmental district Weser-Ems (255,000 women). RESULTS: In the first record linkage 96 screening-cases (ICD-10 C50 + D05) could be identified. Additionally six interval cancers were determined (time between screening and diagnosis in months: median 5.5; mean 7.7). The breast cancer incidence increased in the MSWE area and in the control-area, the rise in the MSWE area being higher. The increase was especially observed with the small tumours. Women with breast cancer diagnosed by screening: 19.8% in-situ-cancer and 18.8% very small tumours < = 10 mm. In the control area Weser-Ems this rate with 5.6% in-situ-cancer and 14.5% very small tumours, was relatively high, indicating the spread of opportunistic mammographies in absence of organised screening. CONCLUSION: First effects of mammography screening can be evaluated early by comparison between screening data and the data of population-based cancer registries. Using the control number system of the epidemiological cancer registries and comparison by pseudonyms the evaluation of quality assurance parameters of the MSWE can be realised in compliance with the data security law. The feedback of cancers, detected during checkup intervals is not covered by the cancer registry law. For the implementation of the guidelines for early recognition cancer legal adjustments will be necessary. This concept can be easily adapted to other screening programme.