Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Risk Loci for Cluster Headache.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to identify susceptibility loci for cluster headache and obtain insights into relevant disease pathways. METHODS: We carried out a genome-wide association study, where 852 UK and 591 Swedish cluster headache cases were compared with 5,614 and 1,134 controls, respectively. Following quality control and imputation, single variant association testing was conducted using a logistic mixed model for each cohort. The 2 cohorts were subsequently combined in a merged analysis. Downstream analyses, such as gene-set enrichment, functional variant annotation, prediction and pathway analyses, were performed. RESULTS: Initial independent analysis identified 2 replicable cluster headache susceptibility loci on chromosome 2. A merged analysis identified an additional locus on chromosome 1 and confirmed a locus significant in the UK analysis on chromosome 6, which overlaps with a previously known migraine locus. The lead single nucleotide polymorphisms were rs113658130 (p = 1.92 × 10-17 , odds ratio [OR] = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37-1.66) and rs4519530 (p = 6.98 × 10-17 , OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.34-1.61) on chromosome 2, rs12121134 on chromosome 1 (p = 1.66 × 10-8 , OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.22-1.52), and rs11153082 (p = 1.85 × 10-8 , OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.19-1.42) on chromosome 6. Downstream analyses implicated immunological processes in the pathogenesis of cluster headache. INTERPRETATION: We identified and replicated several genome-wide significant associations supporting a genetic predisposition in cluster headache in a genome-wide association study involving 1,443 cases. Replication in larger independent cohorts combined with comprehensive phenotyping, in relation to, for example, treatment response and cluster headache subtypes, could provide unprecedented insights into genotype-phenotype correlations and the pathophysiological pathways underlying cluster headache. ANN NEUROL 2021;90:193-202.