Childhood socioeconomic position, young adult intelligence and fillings of prescribed medicine for prevention of cardiovascular disease in middle-aged men.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and filling of medicine prescriptions for prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), with young adult intelligence (IQ) as a potential mediator. DESIGN: Birth cohort study with logistic and Cox-proportional hazard regression analyses of associations between childhood SEP, retrieved from birth certificates, and prevalence, initiation of and refill persistency for CVD preventive medicine. SETTING: Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 8736 Danish men born in 1953, who had no CVD at the start of follow-up in 1995, were followed in the Danish National Prescription Register for initiation of and refill persistency for antihypertensives and statins, until the end of 2007 (age 54 years). RESULTS: Low childhood SEP at age 18 was not associated with prescription fillings of antihypertensives, but was weakly associated with initiation of statins (HR = 1.19 (95% CI 1.00 to1.42)). This estimate was attenuated when IQ was entered into the model (HR=1.10 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.23)). Low childhood SEP was also associated with decreased refill persistency for statins (HR=2.23 (95% CI 1.13 to 4.40)). Thus, the HR for SEP only changed slightly (HR=2.24 (95% CI 1.11 to 4.52)) when IQ was entered into the model, but entering other covariates (education and body mass index in young adulthood and income in midlife) into the model attenuated the HR to 2.04 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.16). CONCLUSIONS: Low childhood SEP was related to more frequent initiation of and poorer refill persistency for statins. IQ in young adulthood explained most of the association between childhood SEP and initiation of statins, but had no impact on refill persistency.

Do immigrants from Turkey, Pakistan and Ex-Yugoslavia with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes initiate recommended statin therapy to the same extent as Danish-born residents? A nationwide register study.

PURPOSE: To explore whether newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients without previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) initiate preventive statin therapy regardless of ethnic background. METHODS: Using nationwide individual-level registers, we followed a cohort of Danish-born residents and immigrants from Turkey, Pakistan and Ex-Yugoslavia, all without previous diabetes or CVD, during the period 2000-2008 for first dispensing of oral glucose-lowering medication (GLM), first dispensing of statins and register-markers of CVD (N = 3,764,620). Logistic regression analyses were used to test whether the odds ratios (ORs) of early statin therapy initiation (within 180 days after first GLM dispensing) are the same regardless of ethnic background. While age and gender were included as confounders in the basic model, income was included in the second model as a potential mediating variable. RESULTS: Compared to native Danes, the ORs for early statin therapy were 0.68 (95 % confidence interval 0.50-0.92], 0.67 (0.56-0.81) and 0.56 (0.44-0.71) for Ex-Yugoslavians, Turks and Pakistanis, respectively. The differences remained largely unchanged after adjusting for income and tended to be accentuated when the threshold period was extended. The ORs of women initiating therapy (compared to native Danes) were 0.56 (0.35-0.90), 0.60 (0.46-0.78) and 0.48 (0.32-0.72) for Ex-Yugoslavians, Turks and Pakistanis, respectively, and those for men were 0.78 (0.52-1.17), 0.74 (0.58-0.95) and 0.60 (0.44-0.83), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Immigrants from Turkey, Pakistan and Ex-Yugoslavia with type 2 diabetes were less likely to initiate statin therapy than Danish-born residents-despite a similar or even higher risk of CVD. The treatment inequities associated with ethnicity were more pronounced in women than men.

The Danish National Prescription Registry.

INTRODUCTION: Individual-level data on all prescription drugs sold in Danish community pharmacies has since 1994 been recorded in the Register of Medicinal Products Statistics of the Danish Medicines Agency. CONTENT: The register subset, termed the Danish National Prescription Registry (DNPR), contains information on dispensed prescriptions, including variables at the level of the drug user, the prescriber, and the pharmacy. VALIDITY AND COVERAGE: Reimbursement-driven record keeping, with automated bar-code-based data entry provides data of high quality, including detailed information on the dispensed drug. CONCLUSION: The possibility of linkage with many other nationwide individual-level data sources renders the DNPR a very powerful pharmacoepidemiological tool.

The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach.

PURPOSE: To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure. METHODS: Applying nationwide registries, prescriptions of three categories of cardiovascular drugs were followed for all Danish residents from 1 January 1996 until 2006. The official Danish population forecast 2006-2015 was applied for projecting the population composition. A previously developed pharmacoepidemiological semi-Markov model was extended to apply for projection of future drug utilization. We either assumed that past trends in model parameters (incidence, discontinuation and drug user mortality) would continue during 2006-2015, or that all model parameters would remain unchanged at their values in 2005. Yearly drug expenditure per user of a particular drug was assumed to remain unchanged. Scenarios of future treatment prevalence with different drug categories were modelled by extrapolating future age- and gender-specific parameter values (treatment incidence, discontinuation and drug user mortality) from historic point estimates and their historic trend. RESULTS: Provided a continuance of past trends, increasing utilization of ACE inhibitors, angiotensin II antagonists and statins translates into a rise in annual expenditure of 176%, mainly explained by increases in treatment incidence. Due to pharmacoepidemiological disequilibrium, unchanged model parameters would imply an increase of 64%, ageing alone 14%. CONCLUSION: Increasing cardiovascular drug utilization may pose a substantial burden on future health care resources. However, prescribing behaviour is likely to depend on changing clinical guidelines. Despite the limited impact as cost driver, population ageing remains a challenge for future health care services.

Effects of alternative styles of risk information on EMF risk perception.

Risk scenarios characterized by exposures to new technologies with unknown health effects, together with limited appreciation of benefits pose a challenge to risk communication. The present report illustrates this situation through a study of the perceived risk from mobile phones and mobile masts in residential areas. Good information should objectively convey the current state of knowledge. The research question is then how to inform lay people so that they trust and understand the information. We used an Internet-based survey with 1687 Danish participants randomized to three types of information about radiation from mobile phones and masts. The objective was to study whether different types of information were rated as equally useful, informative, comprehensible, and trustworthy. Moreover, an important issue was whether information would influence risk perception and intended behavior. The conclusion is that lay people rate information about risks associated with a new and largely unknown technology more useful and trustworthy when provided with brief statements about how to handle the risk, rather than more lengthy technical information about why the technology may or may not entail health hazards. Further, the results demonstrate that information may increase concern among a large proportion of the population, and that discrepancies exist between expressed concern and intended behavior.

Driving forces behind increasing cardiovascular drug utilization: a dynamic pharmacoepidemiological model.

AIMS: To investigate the driving forces behind increasing utilization of cardiovascular drugs. METHODS: Using register data, all Danish residents as of 1 January 1996 were followed until 2006. Cohort members were censored at death or emigration. Cardiovascular drug utilization on the individual level was traced, applying registered out-of-hospital dispensing. The impact of population ageing on cardiovascular drug utilization was investigated using standardized intensities and prevalences. Based on a three-state (untreated, treated and dead) semi-Markov model, we explored to what extent increasing treatment prevalence was driven by changing incidence, discontinuation and mortality. Expected treatment prevalences were modelled, applying stratum-specific cohort prevalence in 1996 along with incidence, discontinuation and drug user mortality either throughout 1996-2004 or at fixed 1996 levels. RESULTS: Treatment prevalence (ages > or =20 years) with cardiovascular drugs increased by 39% during 1996-2005 from 192.4 to 256.9 per 1000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval 256.5, 257.3). Treatment intensity grew by 109% from 272 to 569 defined daily doses 1000(-1) day(-1). Population 'middle-ageing' accounted for 11.5 and 20.3%, respectively. Increasing treatment incidence was the main driver of the rising treatment prevalence in most drug categories. Declining discontinuation drove some of the growth, declining drug user mortality less. Even with fixed incidence in the model, treatment prevalence continued to increase. CONCLUSIONS: Age-related increases in treatment intensity and prevalence, rather than population ageing, drove the increasing treatment intensity with cardiovascular drugs. Increasing treatment prevalence in subgroups was primarily caused by increasing incidence. Due to pharmacoepidemiological disequilibrium, treatment prevalence will continue to grow even with unchanged incidence.

The impact of population ageing on future Danish drug expenditure.

Population ageing is likely to place an increasing burden on future health care budgets. Several studies, however, have demonstrated that the impact of ageing on future hospital expenditures will be overestimated when not accounting for proximity to death. This is because the greater health care expenditures among the elderly are not only due to age per se but due to the high "costs of dying". Similar studies for pharmaceutical expenditures are scarce. The aim of this study was first to estimate the impact of the ageing Danish population on future total expenditures (public outlays as well as private co-payment) on out-of-hospital prescription drugs, holding everything but demographic changes constant. Second, it was to describe the association between age and drug expenditure among survivors compared to that of decedents, and to evaluate the extent to which drug expenditure is increasing with proximity to death in the last 2 years of life. Taking expenditure during the last year of life and the changes in mortality rates into account, future expenditure of prescription drugs was projected by multiplying the estimated mean annual drug expenditure according to age, gender and survival status by the predicted future number of Danes in each stratum, and subsequently, summing up across all strata. A generalized method was developed to account for expenditure several years prior to death. The projection was based on current drug utilisation from a representative prescription database covering the county of Funen, Denmark, and the most recent Danish population forecast for the period 2003-2030. The total population was projected to increase by 0.8% during the period 2003-2030, while the increase was 58% for people aged 75 years and over. The total drug expenditure was projected to increase by 16.9% during the same period when accounting for proximity to death, while it was 17.9% when this was not done. The projected growth in drug expenditure was not merely due to the drug consumption of the elderly. Moreover, the drug expenditure of elderly decedents was only increasing slightly with proximity to death. We conclude that the ageing of the population per se is likely to increase future expenditure on prescription drugs. This predicted increase, however, is small compared to recently observed increases in drug expenditures. The results of the study indicate that Danish policies aimed at limiting the increase in public drug expenditure should focus on rational pharmacotherapy and on the promotion of prescription of cost-effective pharmaceuticals-rather than targeting the drug use of the elderly or reducing the reimbursement generally.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce the thrombolytic delay for acute myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to estimate the costs and health benefits of a public awareness campaign aimed at shortening the delay for thrombolytic therapy in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to estimate the incremental costs and benefits of an additional telemedicine program. METHODS AND RESULTS: By using trial data on the impact of a Swedish campaign, a model was developed to simulate the current distribution of thrombolytic delay in Denmark and the delay after a campaign. The reduction in delay was translated into reduced fatality assuming reductions from the campaign and additional effects of a telemedicine program. The costs of the campaign were based on trial data and Danish unit costs while telemedicine costs were taken from a Danish demonstration program. The analyses indicate that the awareness campaign will translate into five fewer fatal AMIs (sixty-two life years gained) and a cost per life year of DKK283,300, with both costs and benefits discounted at 5 percent. When combining the public campaign with prehospital telemedicine diagnostics, the incremental cost per life year gained was DKK854.700. CONCLUSIONS: Programs aimed at reducing delay of thrombolysis in patients with AMI are likely to have a limited impact on AMI fatality. Information campaigns may have acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios, while telemedicine programs lead to threefold greater ratios. Whether such programs can be considered cost-effective will depend on how life year gains are valued by society.