Individual variation in life-history timing: synchronous presence, asynchronous events and phenological compensation in a wild mammal.

Many animals and plants have species-typical annual cycles, but individuals vary in their timing of life-history events. Individual variation in fur replacement (moult) timing is poorly understood in mammals due to the challenge of repeated observations and longitudinal sampling. We examined factors that influence variation in moult duration and timing among elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris). We quantified the onset and progression of fur loss in 1178 individuals. We found that an exceptionally rapid visible moult (7 days, the shortest of any mammals or birds), and a wide range of moult start dates (spanning 6-10× the event duration) facilitated high asynchrony across individuals (only 20% of individuals in the population moulting at the same time). Some of the variation was due to reproductive state, as reproductively mature females that skipped a breeding season moulted a week earlier than reproductive females. Moreover, individual variation in timing and duration within age-sex categories far outweighed (76-80%) variation among age-sex categories. Individuals arriving at the end of the moult season spent 50% less time on the beach, which allowed them to catch up in their annual cycles and reduce population-level variance during breeding. These findings underscore the importance of individual variation in annual cycles.

Predicting Vaccine Effectiveness for Hospitalization and Symptomatic Disease for Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Neutralizing Antibody Titers.

The emergence of new virus variants, including the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2, can lead to reduced vaccine effectiveness (VE) and the need for new vaccines or vaccine doses if the extent of immune evasion is severe. Neutralizing antibody titers have been shown to be a correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and could be used to quickly estimate vaccine effectiveness for new variants. However, no model currently exists to provide precise VE estimates for a new variant against severe disease for SARS-CoV-2 using robust datasets from several populations. We developed predictive models for VE against COVID-19 symptomatic disease and hospitalization across a 54-fold range of mean neutralizing antibody titers. For two mRNA vaccines (mRNA-1273, BNT162b2), models fit without Omicron data predicted that infection with the BA.1 Omicron variant increased the risk of hospitalization 2.8-4.4-fold and increased the risk of symptomatic disease 1.7-4.2-fold compared to the Delta variant. Out-of-sample validation showed that model predictions were accurate; all predictions were within 10% of observed VE estimates and fell within the model prediction intervals. Predictive models using neutralizing antibody titers can provide rapid VE estimates, which can inform vaccine booster timing, vaccine design, and vaccine selection for new virus variants.

Linking avian malaria parasitemia estimates from quantitative PCR and microscopy reveals new infection patterns in Hawai'i.

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host-pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai'i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection patterns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores ≥35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species' parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4-5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus, Hawaii's most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5-2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens, two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species.

White-nose syndrome restructures bat skin microbiomes.

IMPORTANCE: Inherent complexities in the composition of microbiomes can often preclude investigations of microbe-associated diseases. Instead of single organisms being associated with disease, community characteristics may be more relevant. Longitudinal microbiome studies of the same individual bats as pathogens arrive and infect a population are the ideal experiment but remain logistically challenging; therefore, investigations like our approach that are able to correlate invasive pathogens to alterations within a microbiome may be the next best alternative. The results of this study potentially suggest that microbiome-host interactions may determine the likelihood of infection. However, the contrasting relationship between Pd and the bacterial microbiomes of Myotis lucifugus and Perimyotis subflavus indicate that we are just beginning to understand how the bat microbiome interacts with a fungal invader such as Pd.

Host infection and disease-induced mortality modify species contributions to the environmental reservoir.

Environmental pathogen reservoirs exist for many globally important diseases and can fuel epidemics, influence pathogen evolution, and increase the threat of host extinction. Species composition can be an important factor that shapes reservoir dynamics and ultimately determines the outcome of a disease outbreak. However, disease-induced mortality can change species communities, indicating that species responsible for environmental reservoir maintenance may change over time. Here we examine the reservoir dynamics of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats. We quantified changes in pathogen shedding, infection prevalence and intensity, host abundance, and the subsequent propagule pressure imposed by each species over time. We find that highly shedding species are important during pathogen invasion, but contribute less over time to environmental contamination as they also suffer the greatest declines. Less infected species remain more abundant, resulting in equivalent or higher propagule pressure. More broadly, we demonstrate that high infection intensity and subsequent mortality during disease progression can reduce the contributions of high-shedding species to long-term pathogen maintenance.

Better null models for assessing predictive accuracy of disease models.

Null models provide a critical baseline for the evaluation of predictive disease models. Many studies consider only the grand mean null model (i.e. R2) when evaluating the predictive ability of a model, which is insufficient to convey the predictive power of a model. We evaluated ten null models for human cases of West Nile virus (WNV), a zoonotic mosquito-borne disease introduced to the United States in 1999. The Negative Binomial, Historical (i.e. using previous cases to predict future cases) and Always Absent null models were the strongest overall, and the majority of null models significantly outperformed the grand mean. The length of the training timeseries increased the performance of most null models in US counties where WNV cases were frequent, but improvements were similar for most null models, so relative scores remained unchanged. We argue that a combination of null models is needed to evaluate the forecasting performance of predictive models for infectious diseases and the grand mean is the lowest bar.

Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates derived from serological data vary with income and income inequality.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has killed at least 1.1 million people in the United States and over 6.7 million globally. Accurately estimating the age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 for different populations is crucial for assessing and understanding the impact of COVID-19 and for appropriately allocating vaccines and treatments to at-risk groups. We estimated age-specific IFRs of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 using published seroprevalence, case, and death data from New York City (NYC) from March to May 2020, using a Bayesian framework that accounted for delays between key epidemiological events. IFRs increased 3-4-fold with every 20 years of age, from 0.06% in individuals between 18-45 years old to 4.7% in individuals over 75. We then compared IFRs in NYC to several city- and country-wide estimates including England, Switzerland (Geneva), Sweden (Stockholm), Belgium, Mexico, and Brazil, as well as a global estimate. IFRs in NYC were higher for individuals younger than 65 years old than most other populations, but similar for older individuals. IFRs for age groups less than 65 decreased with income and increased with income inequality measured using the Gini index. These results demonstrate that the age-specific fatality of COVID-19 differs among developed countries and raises questions about factors underlying these differences, including underlying health conditions and healthcare access.

Human Exposure to Bats, Rodents and Monkeys in Bangladesh.

Bats, rodents and monkeys are reservoirs for emerging zoonotic infections. We sought to describe the frequency of human exposure to these animals and the seasonal and geographic variation of these exposures in Bangladesh. During 2013-2016, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a nationally representative sample of 10,002 households from 1001 randomly selected communities. We interviewed household members about exposures to bats, rodents and monkeys, including a key human-bat interface-raw date palm sap consumption. Respondents reported observing rodents (90%), bats (52%) and monkeys (2%) in or around their households, although fewer reported direct contact. The presence of monkeys around the household was reported more often in Sylhet division (7%) compared to other divisions. Households in Khulna (17%) and Rajshahi (13%) were more likely to report drinking date palm sap than in other divisions (1.5-5.6%). Date palm sap was mostly consumed during winter with higher frequencies in January (16%) and February (12%) than in other months (0-5.6%). There was a decreasing trend in drinking sap over the three years. Overall, we observed substantial geographic and seasonal patterns in human exposure to animals that could be sources of zoonotic disease. These findings could facilitate targeting emerging zoonoses surveillance, research and prevention efforts to areas and seasons with the highest levels of exposure.

Shifting effects of host physiological condition following pathogen establishment.

Understanding host persistence with emerging pathogens is essential for conserving populations. Hosts may initially survive pathogen invasions through pre-adaptive mechanisms. However, whether pre-adaptive traits are directionally selected to increase in frequency depends on the heritability and environmental dependence of the trait and the costs of trait maintenance. Body condition is likely an important pre-adaptive mechanism aiding in host survival, although can be seasonally variable in wildlife hosts. We used data collected over 7 years on bat body mass, infection and survival to determine the role of host body condition during the invasion and establishment of the emerging disease, white-nose syndrome. We found that when the pathogen first invaded, bats with higher body mass were more likely to survive, but this effect dissipated following the initial epizootic. We also found that heavier bats lost more weight overwinter, but fat loss depended on infection severity. Lastly, we found mixed support that bat mass increased in the population after pathogen arrival; high annual plasticity in individual bat masses may have reduced the potential for directional selection. Overall, our results suggest that some factors that contribute to host survival during pathogen invasion may diminish over time and are potentially replaced by other host adaptations.

Physiological tipping points in the relationship between foraging success and lifetime fitness of a long-lived mammal.

Although anthropogenic change is often gradual, the impacts on animal populations may be precipitous if physiological processes create tipping points between energy gain, reproduction or survival. We use 25 years of behavioural, diet and demographic data from elephant seals to characterise their relationships with lifetime fitness. Survival and reproduction increased with mass gain during long foraging trips preceding the pupping seasons, and there was a threshold where individuals that gained an additional 4.8% of their body mass (26 kg, from 206 to 232 kg) increased lifetime reproductive success three-fold (from 1.8 to 4.9 pups). This was due to a two-fold increase in pupping probability (30% to 76%) and a 7% increase in reproductive lifespan (6.0 to 6.4 years). The sharp threshold between mass gain and reproduction may explain reproductive failure observed in many species and demonstrates how small, gradual reductions in prey from anthropogenic disturbance could have profound implications for animal populations.

Sex-biased infections scale to population impacts for an emerging wildlife disease.

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.

Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography.

Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonisation probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.

Transcriptional response of individual Hawaiian Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes to the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium parasites that cause bird malaria occur in all continents except Antarctica and are primarily transmitted by mosquitoes in the genus Culex. Culex quinquefasciatus, the mosquito vector of avian malaria in Hawai'i, became established in the islands in the 1820s. While the deadly effects of malaria on endemic bird species have been documented for many decades, vector-parasite interactions in avian malaria systems are relatively understudied. METHODS: To evaluate the gene expression response of mosquitoes exposed to a Plasmodium infection intensity known to occur naturally in Hawai'i, offspring of wild-collected Hawaiian Cx. quinquefasciatus were fed on a domestic canary infected with a fresh isolate of Plasmodium relictum GRW4 from a wild-caught Hawaiian honeycreeper. Control mosquitoes were fed on an uninfected canary. Transcriptomes of five infected and three uninfected individual mosquitoes were sequenced at each of three stages of the parasite life cycle: 24 h post feeding (hpf) during ookinete invasion; 5 days post feeding (dpf) when oocysts are developing; 10 dpf when sporozoites are released and invade the salivary glands. RESULTS: Differential gene expression analyses showed that during ookinete invasion (24 hpf), genes related to oxidoreductase activity and galactose catabolism had lower expression levels in infected mosquitoes compared to controls. Oocyst development (5 dpf) was associated with reduced expression of a gene with a predicted innate immune function. At 10 dpf, infected mosquitoes had reduced expression levels of a serine protease inhibitor, and further studies should assess its role as a Plasmodium agonist in C. quinquefasciatus. Overall, the differential gene expression response of Hawaiian Culex exposed to a Plasmodium infection intensity known to occur naturally in Hawai'i was low, but more pronounced during ookinete invasion. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first analysis of the transcriptional responses of vectors to malaria parasites in non-mammalian systems. Interestingly, few similarities were found between the response of Culex infected with a bird Plasmodium and those reported in Anopheles infected with human Plasmodium. The relatively small transcriptional changes observed in mosquito genes related to immune response and nutrient metabolism support conclusions of low fitness costs often documented in experimental challenges of Culex with avian Plasmodium.

Safe reopening of college campuses during COVID-19: The University of California experience in Fall 2020.

BACKGROUND: Epidemics of COVID-19 in student populations at universities were a key concern for the 2020-2021 school year. The University of California (UC) System developed a set of recommendations to reduce campus infection rates. SARS-CoV-2 test results are summarized for the ten UC campuses during the Fall 2020 term. METHODS: UC mitigation efforts included protocols for the arrival of students living on-campus students, non-pharmaceutical interventions, daily symptom monitoring, symptomatic testing, asymptomatic surveillance testing, isolation and quarantine protocols, student ambassador programs for health education, campus health and safety pledges, and lowered density of on-campus student housing. We used data from UC campuses, the UC Health-California Department of Public Health Data Modeling Consortium, and the U.S. Census to estimate the proportion of each campus' student populations that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the fraction individuals aged 20-29 years who tested positive in their respective counties. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 cases in campus populations were generally low in September and October 2020, but increased in November and especially December, and were highest in early to mid-January 2021, mirroring case trajectories in their respective counties. Many students were infected during the Thanksgiving and winter holiday recesses and were detected as cases upon returning to campus. The proportion of students who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during Fall 2020 ranged from 1.2% to 5.2% for students living on campus and was similar to students living off campus. For most UC campuses the proportion of students testing positive was lower than that for the 20-29-year-old population in which campuses were located. CONCLUSIONS: The layered mitigation approach used on UC campuses, informed by public health science and augmented perhaps by a more compliant population, likely minimized campus transmission and outbreaks and limited transmission to surrounding communities. University policies that include these mitigation efforts in Fall 2020 along with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, may alleviate some local concerns about college students returning to communities and facilitate resumption of normal campus operations and in-person instruction.

Variation in resting strategies across trophic levels and habitats in mammals.

Mammals must carefully balance rest with other behaviors that influence fitness (e.g., foraging, finding a mate) while minimizing predation risk. However, factors influencing resting strategies and the degree to which resting strategies are driven by the activities of predators and/or prey remain largely unknown. Our goal was to examine how mammalian resting strategies varied with trophic level, body mass, and habitat. We reviewed findings from 127 publications and classified the resting strategies of terrestrial and aquatic mammalian species into three categories: social (e.g., resting in groups), temporal (e.g., resting during the day), or spatial (e.g., resting in burrows). Temporal strategies were most common (54% of cases), but the prevalence of strategies varied with body mass and among trophic levels. Specifically, lower trophic levels and smaller species such as rodents and lagomorphs used more spatial and social resting strategies, whereas top predators and larger species used mostly temporal resting strategies. Resting strategies also varied among habitat types (e.g., rainforest vs. grassland), but this was primarily because closely related species shared both habitats and resting strategies. Human presence also affected resting strategies at all trophic levels but most strongly influenced top predators through shifts in rest timing. Human-induced behavioral changes in rest patterns cascade to modify behaviors across multiple trophic levels. These findings advance our fundamental understanding of natural history and ecology in wild animals and provide a roadmap for future comparative studies.

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

Contact tracing efficiency, transmission heterogeneity, and accelerating COVID-19 epidemics.

Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

A new SARS-CoV-2 lineage that shares mutations with known Variants of Concern is rejected by automated sequence repository quality control.

We report a SARS-CoV-2 lineage that shares N501Y, P681H, and other mutations with known variants of concern, such as B.1.1.7. This lineage, which we refer to as B.1.x (COG-UK sometimes references similar samples as B.1.324.1), is present in at least 20 states across the USA and in at least six countries. However, a large deletion causes the sequence to be automatically rejected from repositories, suggesting that the frequency of this new lineage is underestimated using public data. Recent dynamics based on 339 samples obtained in Santa Cruz County, CA, USA suggest that B.1.x may be increasing in frequency at a rate similar to that of B.1.1.7 in Southern California. At present the functional differences between this variant B.1.x and other circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants are unknown, and further studies on secondary attack rates, viral loads, immune evasion and/or disease severity are needed to determine if it poses a public health concern. Nonetheless, given what is known from well-studied circulating variants of concern, it seems unlikely that the lineage could pose larger concerns for human health than many already globally distributed lineages. Our work highlights a need for rapid turnaround time from sequence generation to submission and improved sequence quality control that removes submission bias. We identify promising paths toward this goal.

Seasonal resource pulses and the foraging depth of a Southern Ocean top predator.

Seasonal resource pulses can have enormous impacts on species interactions. In marine ecosystems, air-breathing predators often drive their prey to deeper waters. However, it is unclear how ephemeral resource pulses such as near-surface phytoplankton blooms alter the vertical trade-off between predation avoidance and resource availability in consumers, and how these changes cascade to the diving behaviour of top predators. We integrated data on Weddell seal diving behaviour, diet stable isotopes, feeding success and mass gain to examine shifts in vertical foraging throughout ice break-out and the resulting phytoplankton bloom each year. We also tested hypotheses about the likely location of phytoplankton bloom origination (advected or produced in situ where seals foraged) based on sea ice break-out phenology and advection rates from several locations within 150 km of the seal colony. In early summer, seals foraged at deeper depths resulting in lower feeding rates and mass gain. As sea ice extent decreased throughout the summer, seals foraged at shallower depths and benefited from more efficient energy intake. Changes in diving depth were not due to seasonal shifts in seal diets or horizontal space use and instead may reflect a change in the vertical distribution of prey. Correspondence between the timing of seal shallowing and the resource pulse was variable from year to year and could not be readily explained by our existing understanding of the ocean and ice dynamics. Phytoplankton advection occurred faster than ice break-out, and seal dive shallowing occurred substantially earlier than local break-out. While there remains much to be learned about the marine ecosystem, it appears that an increase in prey abundance and accessibility via shallower distributions during the resource pulse could synchronize life-history phenology across trophic levels in this high-latitude ecosystem.

Mobility and infectiousness in the spatial spread of an emerging fungal pathogen.

Emerging infectious diseases can have devastating effects on host communities, causing population collapse and species extinctions. The timing of novel pathogen arrival into naïve species communities can have consequential effects that shape the trajectory of epidemics through populations. Pathogen introductions are often presumed to occur when hosts are highly mobile. However, spread patterns can be influenced by a multitude of other factors including host body condition and infectiousness. White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a seasonal emerging infectious disease of bats, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Within-site transmission of P. destructans primarily occurs over winter; however, the influence of bat mobility and infectiousness on the seasonal timing of pathogen spread to new populations is unknown. We combined data on host population dynamics and pathogen transmission from 22 bat communities to investigate the timing of pathogen arrival and the consequences of varying pathogen arrival times on disease impacts. We found that midwinter arrival of the fungus predominated spread patterns, suggesting that bats were most likely to spread P. destructans when they are highly infectious, but have reduced mobility. In communities where P. destructans was detected in early winter, one species suffered higher fungal burdens and experienced more severe declines than at sites where the pathogen was detected later in the winter, suggesting that the timing of pathogen introduction had consequential effects for some bat communities. We also found evidence of source-sink population dynamics over winter, suggesting some movement among sites occurs during hibernation, even though bats at northern latitudes were thought to be fairly immobile during this period. Winter emergence behaviour symptomatic of white-nose syndrome may further exacerbate these winter bat movements to uninfected areas. Our results suggest that low infectiousness during host migration may have reduced the rate of expansion of this deadly pathogen, and that elevated infectiousness during winter plays a key role in seasonal transmission. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of both accurate estimation of the timing of pathogen spread and the consequences of varying arrival times to prevent and mitigate the effects of infectious diseases.