Benchmarking risk predictions and uncertainties in the NSCR model of GCR cancer risks with revised low let risk coefficients.

We report on the contributions of model factors that appear in projection models to the overall uncertainty in cancer risks predictions for exposures to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) in deep space, including comparisons with revised low LET risks coefficients. Annual GCR exposures to astronauts at solar minimum are considered. Uncertainties in low LET risk coefficients, dose and dose-rate modifiers, quality factors (QFs), space radiation organ doses, non-targeted effects (NTE) and increased tumor lethality at high LET compared to low LET radiation are considered. For the low LET reference radiation parameters we use a revised assessment of excess relative risk (ERR) and excess additive risk (EAR) for radiation induced cancers in the Life-Span Study (LSS) of the Atomic bomb survivors that was recently reported, and also consider ERR estimates for males from the International Study of Nuclear Workers (INWORKS). For 45-y old females at mission age the risk of exposure induced death (REID) per year and 95% confidence intervals is predicted as 1.6% [0.71, 1.63] without QF uncertainties and 1.64% [0.69, 4.06] with QF uncertainties. However, fatal risk predictions increase to 5.83% [2.56, 9.7] based on a sensitivity study of the inclusion of non-targeted effects on risk predictions. For males a comparison using LSS or INWORKS lead to predictions of 1.24% [0.58, 3.14] and 2.45% [1.23, 5.9], respectively without NTEs. The major conclusion of our report is that high LET risk prediction uncertainties due to QFs parameters, NTEs, and possible increase lethality at high LET are dominant contributions to GCR uncertainties and should be the focus of space radiation research.

NON-TARGETED EFFECTS LEAD TO A PARIDIGM SHIFT IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A MISSION TO THE EARTH'S MOON OR MARTIAN MOON PHOBOS.

Cancer risk is an important limitation for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTEs) occur for low doses of high-linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. We investigate corrections to quality factors (QF) for NTEs, which are used in predictions of fatal cancer risks for exploration missions. Prediction of fatal cancer risks for missions to the Martian moon, Phobos of 500-d and the Earth's moon of 365-d for average solar minimum condition show increases of 2- to 4-fold higher in the NTE model compared with the conventional model. Limitations in estimating uncertainties in NTE model parameters due to sparse radiobiology data at low doses are discussed.

Safe days in space with acceptable uncertainty from space radiation exposure.

The prediction of the risks of cancer and other late effects from space radiation exposure carries large uncertainties mostly due to the lack of information on the risks from high charge and energy (HZE) particles and other high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. In our recent work new methods were used to consider NASA's requirement to protect against the acceptable risk of no more than 3% probability of cancer fatality estimated at the 95% confidence level. Because it is not possible that a zero-level of uncertainty could be achieved, we suggest that an acceptable uncertainty level should be defined in relationship to a probability distribution function (PDF) that only suffers from modest skewness with higher uncertainty allowed for a normal PDF. In this paper, we evaluate PDFs and the number or "safe days" in space, which are defined as the mission length where risk limits are not exceeded, for several mission scenarios at different acceptable levels of uncertainty. In addition, we briefly discuss several important issues in risk assessment including non-cancer effects, the distinct tumor spectra and lethality found in animal experiments for HZE particles compared to background or low LET radiation associated tumors, and the possibility of non-targeted effects (NTE) modifying low dose responses and increasing relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for tumor induction. Each of these issues skew uncertainty distributions to higher fatality probabilities with the potential to increase central values of risk estimates in the future. Therefore they will require significant research efforts to support space exploration within acceptable levels of risk and uncertainty.

Issues for Simulation of Galactic Cosmic Ray Exposures for Radiobiological Research at Ground-Based Accelerators.

For radiobiology research on the health risks of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) ground-based accelerators have been used with mono-energetic beams of single high charge, Z and energy, E (HZE) particles. In this paper, we consider the pros and cons of a GCR reference field at a particle accelerator. At the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL), we have proposed a GCR simulator, which implements a new rapid switching mode and higher energy beam extraction to 1.5 GeV/u, in order to integrate multiple ions into a single simulation within hours or longer for chronic exposures. After considering the GCR environment and energy limitations of NSRL, we performed extensive simulation studies using the stochastic transport code, GERMcode (GCR Event Risk Model) to define a GCR reference field using 9 HZE particle beam-energy combinations each with a unique absorber thickness to provide fragmentation and 10 or more energies of proton and (4)He beams. The reference field is shown to well represent the charge dependence of GCR dose in several energy bins behind shielding compared to a simulated GCR environment. However, a more significant challenge for space radiobiology research is to consider chronic GCR exposure of up to 3 years in relation to simulations with animal models of human risks. We discuss issues in approaches to map important biological time scales in experimental models using ground-based simulation, with extended exposure of up to a few weeks using chronic or fractionation exposures. A kinetics model of HZE particle hit probabilities suggests that experimental simulations of several weeks will be needed to avoid high fluence rate artifacts, which places limitations on the experiments to be performed. Ultimately risk estimates are limited by theoretical understanding, and focus on improving knowledge of mechanisms and development of experimental models to improve this understanding should remain the highest priority for space radiobiology research.

How safe is safe enough? Radiation risk for a human mission to Mars.

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate.

Description of transport codes for space radiation shielding.

Exposure to ionizing radiation in the space environment is one of the hazards faced by crews in space missions. As space radiations traverse spacecraft, habitat shielding, or tissues, their energies and compositions are altered by interactions with the shielding. Modifications to the radiation fields arise from atomic interactions of charged particles with orbital electrons and nuclear interactions leading to projectile and target fragmentation, including secondary particles such as neutrons, protons, mesons, and nuclear recoils. The transport of space radiation through shielding can be simulated using Monte Carlo techniques or deterministic solutions of the Boltzmann equation. To determine shielding requirements and to resolve radiation constraints for future human missions, the shielding evaluation of a spacecraft concept is required as an early step in the design process. To do this requires (1) accurate knowledge of space environmental models to define the boundary condition for transport calculations, (2) transport codes with detailed shielding and body geometry models to determine particle transmission into areas of internal shielding and at each critical body organ, and (3) the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and biological risks by applying the corresponding response models for space radiation against the particle spectra that have been accurately determined from the transport code. This paper reviews current transport codes and analyzes their accuracy through comparison to laboratory and spaceflight data. This paper also introduces a probabilistic risk assessment approach for the evaluation of radiation shielding.

Radiation carcinogenesis risk assessments for never-smokers.

Cigarette smoking, which is presently associated with more than 20% of adult deaths in the United States, is a large confounder to radiation risk estimates derived from epidemiology data. Astronauts and other exposed groups are classified as never-smokers (NS), defined as lifetime use of less than 100 cigarettes. In the past, radiation risk estimates have been made using average U.S. population rates for cancer and all causes of death, which may lead to overestimation of radiation risks for NS. In this report, age- and gender-specific radiation carcinogenesis risk calculations for NS and the average U.S. population are compared. Lung is the major tissue site for smoking and radiation-related cancer. However, other radiogenic cancers where tobacco has been shown to increase population cancer rates are esophagus, oral cavity, salivary gland, bladder, stomach, liver, colorectal, and leukemia. After adjusting U.S. cancer rates to remove smoking effects, radiation risks for lung and other cancers were estimated using the multiplicative risk model and a mixture model, with weighted contributions for additive and multiplicative risk transfer. Radiation mortality risks for NS were reduced compared to the average U.S. population by more than 20% and 50% in the mixture model and multiplicative transfer models, respectively. The authors discuss possible mechanisms of cancer risks from radiation and tobacco that suggest multiplicative effects could occur. These results suggest that improved understanding of possible synergisms between cancer initiators and promoters, such as radiation and tobacco, would greatly improve risk estimates and reduce uncertainties for differentially exposed groups, including NS.

Nuclear interactions in heavy ion transport and event-based risk models.

The physical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is of interest in radiobiology, cancer therapy and space exploration, including a human mission to Mars. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) consist of a large number of ion types and energies. Energy loss processes occur continuously along the path of heavy ions and are well described by the linear energy transfer (LET), straggling and multiple scattering algorithms. Nuclear interactions lead to much larger energy deposition than atomic-molecular collisions and alter the composition of heavy ion beams while producing secondary nuclei often in high multiplicity events. The major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams was reviewed, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering and knockout-cascade processes. The quantum multiple scattering fragmentation model is shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections and is studied for application to thick target experiments. A new computer model, which was developed for the description of biophysical events from heavy ion beams at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL), called the GCR Event Risk-Based Model (GERMcode) is described.

Prediction of frequency and exposure level of solar particle events.

For future space missions outside of the Earth's magnetic field, the risk of radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPEs) during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern when designing radiation protection including determining sufficient shielding requirements for astronauts and hardware. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by solar modulation, SPE occurrences themselves are chaotic in nature. We report on a probabilistic modeling approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, we then estimated the expected frequency of SPEs at any given proton fluence threshold with energy >30 MeV (Phi(30)) during a defined space mission period. Analytic energy spectra of 34 large SPEs observed in the space era were fitted over broad energy ranges extending to GeV, and subsequently used to calculate the distribution of mGy equivalent (mGy-Eq) dose for a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) inside a spacecraft as a function of total Phi(30) fluence. This distribution was combined with a simulation of SPE events using the Poisson model to estimate the probability of the BFO dose exceeding the NASA 30-d limit of 250 mGy-Eq per 30 d. These results will be useful in implementing probabilistic risk assessment approaches at NASA and guidelines for protection systems for astronauts on future space exploration missions.

Modeling the acute health effects of astronauts from exposure to large solar particle events.

Radiation exposure from Solar Particle Events (SPE) presents a significant health concern for astronauts for exploration missions outside the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, which could impair their performance and result in the possibility of failure of the mission. Assessing the potential for early radiation effects under such adverse conditions is of prime importance. Here we apply a biologically based mathematical model that describes the dose- and time-dependent early human responses that constitute the prodromal syndromes to consider acute risks from SPEs. We examine the possible early effects on crews from exposure to some historically large solar events on lunar and/or Mars missions. The doses and dose rates of specific organs were calculated using the Baryon radiation transport (BRYNTRN) code and a computerized anatomical man model, while the hazard of the early radiation effects and performance reduction were calculated using the Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement (RIPD) code. Based on model assumptions we show that exposure to these historical events would cause moderate early health effects to crew members inside a typical spacecraft or during extra-vehicular activities, if effective shielding and medical countermeasure tactics were not provided. We also calculate possible even worse cases (double intensity, multiple occurrences in a short period of time, etc.) to estimate the severity, onset and duration of various types of early illness. Uncertainties in the calculation due to limited data on relative biological effectiveness and dose-rate modifying factors for protons and secondary radiation, and the identification of sensitive sites in critical organs are discussed.

Physical and biological organ dosimetry analysis for international space station astronauts.

In this study, we analyzed the biological and physical organ dose equivalents for International Space Station (ISS) astronauts. Individual physical dosimetry is difficult in space due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which consists of protons, heavy ions and secondary neutrons, and the modification of these radiation types in tissue as well as limitations in dosimeter devices that can be worn for several months in outer space. Astronauts returning from missions to the ISS undergo biodosimetry assessment of chromosomal damage in lymphocyte cells using the multicolor fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) technique. Individual-based pre-flight dose responses for lymphocyte exposure in vitro to gamma rays were compared to those exposed to space radiation in vivo to determine an equivalent biological dose. We compared the ISS biodosimetry results, NASA's space radiation transport models of organ dose equivalents, and results from ISS and space shuttle phantom torso experiments. Physical and biological doses for 19 ISS astronauts yielded average effective doses and individual or population-based biological doses for the approximately 6-month missions of 72 mSv and 85 or 81 mGy-Eq, respectively. Analyses showed that 80% or more of organ dose equivalents on the ISS are from galactic cosmic rays and only a small contribution is from trapped protons and that GCR doses were decreased by the high level of solar activity in recent years. Comparisons of models to data showed that space radiation effective doses can be predicted to within about a +/-10% accuracy by space radiation transport models. Finally, effective dose estimates for all previous NASA missions are summarized.

A temporal forecast of radiation environments for future space exploration missions.

The understanding of future space radiation environments is an important goal for space mission operations, design, and risk assessment. We have developed a solar cycle statistical model in which sunspot number is coupled to space-related quantities, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (phi) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle events (SPEs). Future GCR fluxes were derived from a predictive model, in which the temporal dependence represented by phi was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. These results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary space was influenced by solar modulation by up to a factor of three. It also has been shown that a strong relationship exists between large SPE occurrences and phi. For future space exploration missions, cumulative probabilities of SPEs at various integral fluence levels during short-period missions were defined using a database of proton fluences of past SPEs. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences for energies greater than 30 MeV were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV for the analysis of representative exposure levels at those fluences. Results will guide the design of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Implementation of Gy-Eq for deterministic effects limitation in shield design.

The NCRP has recently defined RBE values and a new quantity (Gy-Eq) for use in estimation of deterministic effects in space shielding and operations. The NCRP's RBE for neutrons is left ambiguous and not fully defined. In the present report we will suggest a complete definition of neutron RBE consistent with the NCRP recommendations and evaluate attenuation properties of deterministic effects (Gy-Eq) in comparison with other dosimetric quantities.