Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030.

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan's central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.

PSA and Prostate Health Index based prostate cancer screening in a hereditary migration complicated population: implications in precision diagnosis.

Precision diagnosis requires specific markers for differential ethnic populations. Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) level (threshold of 4ng/ml) has been widely used to screen prostate cancer and as reference of pro-biopsy but false diagnosis frequently occurs. Prostate health Index (PHI) is a new diagnosis marker which combines PSA, free PSA and p2PSA4. Overall the PCa screening database is lacking in Kazakhstani patients. We analyzed the PSA levels and Gleason scores of 222 biopsies collected in 2015 in Almaty area, Kazakhstan approved by institutional ethics board. We found using PSA of 4ng/ml as threshold, only 25.68% of patients have cancer with Gleason score ranged 6-8 and 65.77% of patients have no character of cancer. Moreover, there is no significant correlation between PSA and cancerous (P=0.266) or Gleason grade (P=0.3046) based on pathological biopsy. In addition, PHI is not correlated to prostate cancer (P=0.4301). Our data suggest that false-positive rate is much higher than the correct-positive diagnosis when using PSA as the first screening. Thus in this cohort study, most patients can not get benefit from the PSA screening for precision PCa diagnosis. As Kazakhstani family trees are unique and complicated because of history and migration, the high rate of over diagnosis might be due to the hyperexpression of PSA via heterosis in Eurasian men. Therefore we should be cautious when using pro-biopsy in precision diagnosis for Eurasian prostate cancer patients.