Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission Risk Assessment for Farmed Cervids in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

CWD (chronic wasting disease) has emerged as one of the most important diseases of cervids and continues to adversely affect farmed and wild cervid populations, despite control and preventive measures. This study aims to use the current scientific understanding of CWD transmission and knowledge of farmed cervid operations to conduct a qualitative risk assessment for CWD transmission to cervid farms and, applying this risk assessment, systematically describe the CWD transmission risks experienced by CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A systematic review of literature related to CWD transmission informed our criteria to stratify CWD transmission risks to cervid operations into high-risk low uncertainty, moderate-risk high uncertainty, and negligible-risk low uncertainty categories. Case data from 34 CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin from 2002 to January 2019 were categorized by transmission risks exposure and evaluated for trends. The majority of case farms recorded high transmission risks (56%), which were likely sources of CWD, but many (44%) had only moderate or negligible transmission risks, including most of the herds (62%) detected since 2012. The presence of CWD-positive cervid farms with only moderate or low CWD transmission risks necessitates further investigation of these risks to inform effective control measures.

Implications of farmed-cervid movements on the transmission of chronic wasting disease.

Chronic wasting disease is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that affects cervids with a clinical picture of muscle wasting in infected animals. The objective of this study was to quantify movement patterns of farmed cervids in the state of Minnesota as a model for identifying potential disease mitigation points. Time aggregated network analysis was performed on data consisting of 1221 intra-state cervid movements from farms located within Minnesota (n = 432 farms). Intra-state movements accounted for 48.2 % of all documented movements (2578) in Minnesota from 2013 to 2018; the remaining movements were inter-state. Annual networks were sparse in nature with low graph densities (6.9 × 10-4 - 1.4 × 10-3) and transitivity (0.06-0.12). Frequency of movements increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the months of September and October before decreasing in November, which coincided with the breeding and hunting seasons. Some of these contacts were as far as 500 km apart. The median length of infection chains for CWD positive farms was estimated to be 5.0 and 6.0 farms in-and out-going infection chains, respectively. A k-test analysis demonstrated that the observed median number of infected farms directly connected to other infected farms was 2.0, which was significantly higher than a fortuitous event (p = 0.002). Movements of cervids between farms were largely unpredictable with very low edge overlap (mean 0.02 %) from year to year, suggesting that persistent commercial relationships among farms were rare. In conclusion, long distance trade movements present a risk for spread of chronic wasting disease in Minnesota. The sparse networks and unpredictable farm contacts could be because cervid production is not as vertically integrated as other species-differentiated and established industries, such as swine or poultry. Our analytical approach can be used to understand chronic wasting disease in other states in the U.S. and North America in general.