Financing health system elements in Africa: A scoping review.

Countries that are reforming their health systems to progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) need to consider total resource requirements over the long term to plan for the implementation and sustainable financing of UHC. However, there is a lack of detailed conceptualization as to how the current health financing mechanisms interplay across health system elements. Thus, we aimed to generate evidence on how to utilize resources from different sources of funds in Africa. We conducted a scoping review of empirical research following the six-stage methodological framework for Scoping Review by Arksey & O'Malley and Levac, Colquhoun & O'Brien. We searched for published and grey literature in Medline, Cochrane Library, PubMed, WHO database, World bank and Google Scholar search engines databases and summarized data using a narrative approach, involving thematic syntheses and descriptive statistics. We included 156 studies out of 1,168 studies among which 13% were conceptual studies while 87% were empirical studies. These selected studies focused on the financing of the 13 health system elements. About 45% focused on service delivery, 13% on human resources, 5% on medical products, and 3% on infrastructure and governance. Studies reporting multiple health system elements were 8%, while health financing assessment frameworks was 23%. The publication years ranged from 1975 to 2021. While public sources were the most dominant form of financing, global documentation of health expenditure does not track funding on all the health system dimensions that informed the conceptual framework of this scoping review. There is a need to advocate for expenditure tracking for health systems, including intangibles. Further analysis would inform the development of a framework for assessing financing sources for health system elements based on efficiency, feasibility, sustainability, equity, and displacement.

COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has affected the African region in many ways. We aimed to generate robust information on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in this region since the beginning of the pandemic and throughout 2022. METHODS: For each of the 47 countries of the WHO African region, we consolidated COVID-19 data from reported infections and deaths (from WHO statistics); published literature on socioecological, biophysical, and public health interventions; and immunity status and variants of concern, to build a dynamic and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 burden. The model is consolidated through a partially observed Markov decision process, with a Fourier series to produce observed patterns over time based on the SEIRD (denoting susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and dead) modelling framework. The model was set up to run weekly, by country, from the date the first infection was reported in each country until Dec 31, 2021. New variants were introduced into the model based on sequenced data reported by countries. The models were then extrapolated until the end of 2022 and included three scenarios based on possible new variants with varying transmissibility, severity, or immunogenicity. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, our model estimates the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the African region to be 505·6 million (95% CI 476·0-536·2), inferring that only 1·4% (one in 71) of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the region were reported. Deaths are estimated at 439 500 (95% CI 344 374-574 785), with 35·3% (one in three) of these reported as COVID-19-related deaths. Although the number of infections were similar between 2020 and 2021, 81% of the deaths were in 2021. 52·3% (95% CI 43·5-95·2) of the region's population is estimated to have some SARS-CoV-2 immunity, given vaccination coverage of 14·7% as of Dec 31, 2021. By the end of 2022, we estimate that infections will remain high, at around 166·2 million (95% CI 157·5-174·9) infections, but deaths will substantially reduce to 22 563 (14 970-38 831). INTERPRETATION: The African region is estimated to have had a similar number of COVID-19 infections to that of the rest of the world, but with fewer deaths. Our model suggests that the current approach to SARS-CoV-2 testing is missing most infections. These results are consistent with findings from representative seroprevalence studies. There is, therefore, a need for surveillance of hospitalisations, comorbidities, and the emergence of new variants of concern, and scale-up of representative seroprevalence studies, as core response strategies. FUNDING: None.

On the resilience of health systems: A methodological exploration across countries in the WHO African Region.

The need for resilient health systems is recognized as important for the attainment of health outcomes, given the current shocks to health services. Resilience has been defined as the capacity to "prepare and effectively respond to crises; maintain core functions; and, informed by lessons learnt, reorganize if conditions require it". There is however a recognized dichotomy between its conceptualization in literature, and its application in practice. We propose two mutually reinforcing categories of resilience, representing resilience targeted at potentially known shocks, and the inherent health system resilience, needed to respond to unpredictable shock events. We determined capacities for each of these categories, and explored this methodological proposition by computing country-specific scores against each capacity, for the 47 Member States of the WHO African Region. We assessed face validity of the computed index, to ensure derived values were representative of the different elements of resilience, and were predictive of health outcomes, and computed bias-corrected non-parametric confidence intervals of the emergency preparedness and response (EPR) and inherent system resilience (ISR) sub-indices, as well as the overall resilience index, using 1000 bootstrap replicates. We also explored the internal consistency and scale reliability of the index, by calculating Cronbach alphas for the various proposed capacities and their corresponding attributes. We computed overall resilience to be 48.4 out of a possible 100 in the 47 assessed countries, with generally lower levels of ISR. For ISR, the capacities were weakest for transformation capacity, followed by mobilization of resources, awareness of own capacities, self-regulation and finally diversity of services respectively. This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of empirical evidence on health systems and service resilience, which is of great importance to the functionality and performance of health systems, particularly in the context of COVID-19. It provides a methodological reflection for monitoring health system resilience, revealing areas of improvement in the provision of essential health services during shock events, and builds a case for the need for mechanisms, at country level, that address both specific and non-specific shocks to the health system, ultimately for the attainment of improved health outcomes.

Investments for effective functionality of health systems towards Universal Health Coverage in Africa: A scoping review.

The health challenges in Africa underscore the importance of effectively investing in health systems. Unfortunately, there is no information on systems investments adequate for an effective functional health system. We aimed to address this by conducting a scoping review of existing evidence following the Joanna Briggs Institute Manual for Evidence Synthesis and preregistered with the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/bvg4z). We included any empirical research describing interventions that contributed to the functionality of health systems in Africa or any low-income or lower-middle-income regions. We searched Web of Science, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and ERIC from their inception, and hand-searched other relevant sources. We summarized data using a narrative approach involving thematic syntheses and descriptive statistics. We identified 554 unique reports describing 575 interventions, of which 495 reported evidence of effectiveness. Most interventions were undertaken in Africa (80.9%), covered multiple elements of health systems (median: 3), and focused on service delivery (77.4%) and health workforce (65.6%). Effective interventions contributed to improving single (35.6%) or multiple (64.4%) capacities of health systems: access to essential services (75.6%), quality of care (70.5%), demand for essential services (38.6%), or health systems resilience (13.5%). For example, telemedicine models which covered software (technologies) and hardware (health workers) elements were used as a strategy to address issues of access to essential services. We inventoried these effective interventions for improving health systems functionality in Africa. Further analyses could deepen understanding of how such interventions differ in their incorporation of evidence for potential scale across African countries.