Lack of evidence for predictive utility from resting state fMRI data for individual exposure-based cognitive behavioral therapy outcomes: A machine learning study in two large multi-site samples in anxiety disorders.

Data-based predictions of individual Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) treatment response are a fundamental step towards precision medicine. Past studies demonstrated only moderate prediction accuracy (i.e. ability to discriminate between responders and non-responders of a given treatment) when using clinical routine data such as demographic and questionnaire data, while neuroimaging data achieved superior prediction accuracy. However, these studies may be considerably biased due to very limited sample sizes and bias-prone methodology. Adequately powered and cross-validated samples are a prerequisite to evaluate predictive performance and to identify the most promising predictors. We therefore analyzed resting state functional magnet resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data from two large clinical trials to test whether functional neuroimaging data continues to provide good prediction accuracy in much larger samples. Data came from two distinct German multicenter studies on exposure-based CBT for anxiety disorders, the Protect-AD and SpiderVR studies. We separately and independently preprocessed baseline rs-fMRI data from n = 220 patients (Protect-AD) and n = 190 patients (SpiderVR) and extracted a variety of features, including ROI-to-ROI and edge-functional connectivity, sliding-windows, and graph measures. Including these features in sophisticated machine learning pipelines, we found that predictions of individual outcomes never significantly differed from chance level, even when conducting a range of exploratory post-hoc analyses. Moreover, resting state data never provided prediction accuracy beyond the sociodemographic and clinical data. The analyses were independent of each other in terms of selecting methods to process resting state data for prediction input as well as in the used parameters of the machine learning pipelines, corroborating the external validity of the results. These similar findings in two independent studies, analyzed separately, urge caution regarding the interpretation of promising prediction results based on neuroimaging data from small samples and emphasizes that some of the prediction accuracies from previous studies may result from overestimation due to homogeneous data and weak cross-validation schemes. The promise of resting-state neuroimaging data to play an important role in the prediction of CBT treatment outcomes in patients with anxiety disorders remains yet to be delivered.

Larger putamen in individuals at risk and with manifest bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Individuals at risk for bipolar disorder (BD) have a wide range of genetic and non-genetic risk factors, like a positive family history of BD or (sub)threshold affective symptoms. Yet, it is unclear whether these individuals at risk and those diagnosed with BD share similar gray matter brain alterations. METHODS: In 410 male and female participants aged 17-35 years, we compared gray matter volume (3T MRI) between individuals at risk for BD (as assessed using the EPIbipolar scale; n = 208), patients with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of BD (n = 87), and healthy controls (n = 115) using voxel-based morphometry in SPM12/CAT12. We applied conjunction analyses to identify similarities in gray matter volume alterations in individuals at risk and BD patients, relative to healthy controls. We also performed exploratory whole-brain analyses to identify differences in gray matter volume among groups. ComBat was used to harmonize imaging data from seven sites. RESULTS: Both individuals at risk and BD patients showed larger volumes in the right putamen than healthy controls. Furthermore, individuals at risk had smaller volumes in the right inferior occipital gyrus, and BD patients had larger volumes in the left precuneus, compared to healthy controls. These findings were independent of course of illness (number of lifetime manic and depressive episodes, number of hospitalizations), comorbid diagnoses (major depressive disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety disorder, eating disorder), familial risk, current disease severity (global functioning, remission status), and current medication intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that alterations in the right putamen might constitute a vulnerability marker for BD.

The interplay between polygenic score for tumor necrosis factor-α, brain structural connectivity, and processing speed in major depression.

Reduced processing speed is a core deficit in major depressive disorder (MDD) and has been linked to altered structural brain network connectivity. Ample evidence highlights the involvement of genetic-immunological processes in MDD and specific depressive symptoms. Here, we extended these findings by examining associations between polygenic scores for tumor necrosis factor-α blood levels (TNF-α PGS), structural brain connectivity, and processing speed in a large sample of MDD patients. Processing speed performance of n = 284 acutely depressed, n = 177 partially and n = 198 fully remitted patients, and n = 743 healthy controls (HC) was estimated based on five neuropsychological tests. Network-based statistic was used to identify a brain network associated with processing speed. We employed general linear models to examine the association between TNF-α PGS and processing speed. We investigated whether network connectivity mediates the association between TNF-α PGS and processing speed. We identified a structural network positively associated with processing speed in the whole sample. We observed a significant negative association between TNF-α PGS and processing speed in acutely depressed patients, whereas no association was found in remitted patients and HC. The mediation analysis revealed that brain connectivity partially mediated the association between TNF-α PGS and processing speed in acute MDD. The present study provides evidence that TNF-α PGS is associated with decreased processing speed exclusively in patients with acute depression. This association was partially mediated by structural brain connectivity. Using multimodal data, the current findings advance our understanding of cognitive dysfunction in MDD and highlight the involvement of genetic-immunological processes in its pathomechanisms.

Concurrent inflammation-related brain reorganization in multiple sclerosis and depression.

BACKGROUND: Neuroinflammation affects brain tissue integrity in multiple sclerosis (MS) and may have a role in major depressive disorder (MDD). Whether advanced magnetic resonance imaging characteristics of the gray-to-white matter border serve as proxy of neuroinflammatory activity in MDD and MS remain unknown. METHODS: We included 684 participants (132 MDD patients with recurrent depressive episodes (RDE), 70 MDD patients with a single depressive episode (SDE), 222 MS patients without depressive symptoms (nMS), 58 MS patients with depressive symptoms (dMS), and 202 healthy controls (HC)). 3 T-T1w MRI-derived gray-to-white matter contrast (GWc) was used to reconstruct and characterize connectivity alterations of GWc-covariance networks by means of modularity, clustering coefficient, and degree. A cross-validated support vector machine was used to test the ability of GWc to stratify groups according to their depression symptoms, measured with BDI, at the single-subject level in MS and MDD independently. FINDINGS: MS and MDD patients showed increased modularity (ANOVA partial-η2 = 0.3) and clustering (partial-η2 = 0.1) compared to HC. In the subgroups, a linear trend analysis attested a gradient of modularity increases in the form: HC, dMS, nMS, SDE, and RDE (ANOVA partial-η2 = 0.28, p < 0.001) while this trend was less evident for clustering coefficient. Reduced morphological integrity (GWc) was seen in patients with increased depressive symptoms (partial-η2 = 0.42, P < 0.001) and was associated with depression scores across patient groups (r = -0.2, P < 0.001). Depressive symptoms in MS were robustly classified (88 %). CONCLUSIONS: Similar structural network alterations in MDD and MS exist, suggesting possible common inflammatory events like demyelination, neuroinflammation that are caught by GWc analyses. These alterations may vary depending on the severity of symptoms and in the case of MS may elucidate the occurrence of comorbid depression.

Differences in the neural correlates of schizophrenia with positive and negative formal thought disorder in patients with schizophrenia in the ENIGMA dataset.

Formal thought disorder (FTD) is a clinical key factor in schizophrenia, but the neurobiological underpinnings remain unclear. In particular, the relationship between FTD symptom dimensions and patterns of regional brain volume loss in schizophrenia remains to be established in large cohorts. Even less is known about the cellular basis of FTD. Our study addresses these major obstacles by enrolling a large multi-site cohort acquired by the ENIGMA Schizophrenia Working Group (752 schizophrenia patients and 1256 controls), to unravel the neuroanatomy of FTD in schizophrenia and using virtual histology tools on implicated brain regions to investigate the cellular basis. Based on the findings of previous clinical and neuroimaging studies, we decided to separately explore positive, negative and total formal thought disorder. We used virtual histology tools to relate brain structural changes associated with FTD to cellular distributions in cortical regions. We identified distinct neural networks positive and negative FTD. Both networks encompassed fronto-occipito-amygdalar brain regions, but positive and negative FTD demonstrated a dissociation: negative FTD showed a relative sparing of orbitofrontal cortical thickness, while positive FTD also affected lateral temporal cortices. Virtual histology identified distinct transcriptomic fingerprints associated for both symptom dimensions. Negative FTD was linked to neuronal and astrocyte fingerprints, while positive FTD also showed associations with microglial cell types. These results provide an important step towards linking FTD to brain structural changes and their cellular underpinnings, providing an avenue for a better mechanistic understanding of this syndrome.

PsyCog: A computerised mini battery for assessing cognition in psychosis.

Despite the functional impact of cognitive deficit in people with psychosis, objective cognitive assessment is not typically part of routine clinical care. This is partly due to the length of traditional assessments and the need for a highly trained administrator. Brief, automated computerised assessments could help to address this issue. We present data from an evaluation of PsyCog, a computerised, non-verbal, mini battery of cognitive tests. Healthy Control (HC) (N = 135), Clinical High Risk (CHR) (N = 233), and First Episode Psychosis (FEP) (N = 301) participants from a multi-centre prospective study were assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. PsyCog was used to assess cognitive performance at baseline and at up to two follow-up timepoints. Mean total testing time was 35.95 min (SD = 2.87). Relative to HCs, effect sizes of performance impairments were medium to large in FEP patients (composite score G = 1.21, subtest range = 0.52-0.88) and small to medium in CHR patients (composite score G = 0.59, subtest range = 0.18-0.49). Site effects were minimal, and test-retest reliability of the PsyCog composite was good (ICC = 0.82-0.89), though some practice effects and differences in data completion between groups were found. The present implementation of PsyCog shows it to be a useful tool for assessing cognitive function in people with psychosis. Computerised cognitive assessments have the potential to facilitate the evaluation of cognition in psychosis in both research and in clinical care, though caution should still be taken in terms of implementation and study design.

A naturalistic cohort study of first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorder: A description of the early phase of illness in the PSYSCAN cohort.

BACKGROUND: We examined the course of illness over a 12-month period in a large, international multi-center cohort of people with a first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorder (FES) in a naturalistic, prospective study (PSYSCAN). METHOD: Patients with a first episode of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder (depressive type) or schizophreniform disorder were recruited at 16 institutions in Europe, Israel and Australia. Participants (N = 304) received clinical treatment as usual throughout the study. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 24.3 years (SD = 5.6), and 67 % were male. At baseline, participants presented with a range of intensities of psychotic symptoms, 80 % were taking antipsychotic medication, 68 % were receiving psychological treatment, with 46.5 % in symptomatic remission. The mean duration of untreated psychosis was 6.2 months (SD = 17.0). After one year, 67 % were in symptomatic remission and 61 % were in functional remission, but 31 % had been readmitted to hospital at some time after baseline. In the cohort as a whole, depressive symptoms remained stable over the follow-up period. In patients with a current depressive episode at baseline, depressive symptoms slightly improved. Alcohol, tobacco and cannabis were the most commonly used substances, with daily users of cannabis ranging between 9 and 11 % throughout the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides valuable insight into the early course of a broad range of clinical and functional aspects of illness in FES patients in routine clinical practice.

Neural foundation of the diathesis-stress model: longitudinal gray matter volume changes in response to stressful life events in major depressive disorder and healthy controls.

Recurrences of depressive episodes in major depressive disorder (MDD) can be explained by the diathesis-stress model, suggesting that stressful life events (SLEs) can trigger MDD episodes in individuals with pre-existing vulnerabilities. However, the longitudinal neurobiological impact of SLEs on gray matter volume (GMV) in MDD and its interaction with early-life adversity remains unresolved. In 754 participants aged 18-65 years (362 MDD patients; 392 healthy controls; HCs), we assessed longitudinal associations between SLEs (Life Events Questionnaire) and whole-brain GMV changes (3 Tesla MRI) during a 2-year interval, using voxel-based morphometry in SPM12/CAT12. We also explored the potential moderating role of childhood maltreatment (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) on these associations. Over the 2-year interval, HCs demonstrated significant GMV reductions in the middle frontal, precentral, and postcentral gyri in response to higher levels of SLEs, while MDD patients showed no such GMV changes. Childhood maltreatment did not moderate these associations in either group. However, MDD patients who had at least one depressive episode during the 2-year interval, compared to those who did not, or HCs, showed GMV increases in the middle frontal, precentral, and postcentral gyri associated with an increase in SLEs and childhood maltreatment. Our findings indicate distinct GMV changes in response to SLEs between MDD patients and HCs. GMV decreases in HCs may represent adaptive responses to stress, whereas GMV increases in MDD patients with both childhood maltreatment and a depressive episode during the 2-year interval may indicate maladaptive changes, suggesting a neural foundation for the diathesis-stress model in MDD recurrences.

Exploring the complex interrelation between depressive symptoms, risk, and protective factors: A comprehensive network approach.

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms seem to be interrelated in a complex and self-reinforcing way. To gain a better understanding of this complexity, the inclusion of theoretically relevant constructs (such as risk and protective factors) offers a comprehensive view into the complex mechanisms underlying depression. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from individuals diagnosed with a major depressive disorder (N = 986) and healthy controls (N = 1049) were analyzed. Participants self-reported their depressive symptoms, as well as several risk factors and protective factors. Regularized partial correlation networks were estimated for each group and compared using a network comparison test. RESULTS: Symptoms of depression were more strongly connected in the network of depressed patients than in healthy controls. Among the risk factors, perceived stress, the experience of negative life events, emotional neglect, and emotional abuse were the most centrally embedded in both networks. However, the centrality of risk factors did not significantly differ between the two groups. Among the protective factors, social support, personal competence, and acceptance were the most central in both networks, where the latter was significantly more strongly associated with the symptom of self-hate in depressed patients. CONCLUSION: The network analysis revealed that key symptoms of depression were more strongly connected for depressed patients than for healthy controls, and that risk and protective factors play an important role, particularly perceived stress in both groups and an accepting attitude for depressed patients. However, the purpose of this study is hypothesis generating and assisting in the potential selection of non-symptom nodes for future research.

Hype or hope? High placebo response in major depression treatment with ketamine and esketamine: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Ketamine and esketamine offer a novel approach in the pharmacological treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the placebo response in double-blind, randomized controlled studies (RCTs) on patients with MDD receiving ketamine or esketamine. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis Medline (PubMed), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), PsycInfo and Embase databases were systematically searched for citations published up to March 17, 2023. A total number of 5017 abstracts was identified. Quality of the included trials was assessed with the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. The meta-analysis was performed using a restricted maximum likelihood model. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42022377591. Results: A total number of 14 studies and 1100 participants (593 in the medication group and 507 in the placebo group) meeting the inclusion criteria were selected. We estimated the pooled effect sizes of the overall placebo (d pl = -1.85 [CI 95%: -2.9 to -0.79] and overall treatment (dtr = -2.57; [CI 95% -3.36 to -1.78]) response. The overall placebo response accounts for up to 72% of the overall treatment response. Furthermore, we performed subgroup analysis of 8 studies for the for the 7 days post-intervention timepoint. Seven days post-intervention the placebo response (d pl 7d = -1.98 [CI 95%: -3.26 to -0.69]) accounts for 66% of the treatment response (d tr 7d = - 3.01 [CI 95%, -4.28 to -1.74]). Conclusion: Ketamine and esketamine show large antidepressant effects. However, our findings suggest that the placebo response plays a significant role in the antidepressant response and should be used for the benefit of the patients in clinical practice. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42022377591.

White and gray matter alterations in bipolar I and bipolar II disorder subtypes compared with healthy controls - exploring associations with disease course and polygenic risk.

Patients with bipolar disorder (BD) show alterations in both gray matter volume (GMV) and white matter (WM) integrity compared with healthy controls (HC). However, it remains unclear whether the phenotypically distinct BD subtypes (BD-I and BD-II) also exhibit brain structural differences. This study investigated GMV and WM differences between HC, BD-I, and BD-II, along with clinical and genetic associations. N = 73 BD-I, n = 63 BD-II patients and n = 136 matched HC were included. Using voxel-based morphometry and tract-based spatial statistics, main effects of group in GMV and fractional anisotropy (FA) were analyzed. Associations between clinical and genetic features and GMV or FA were calculated using regression models. For FA but not GMV, we found significant differences between groups. BD-I patients showed lower FA compared with BD-II patients (ptfce-FWE = 0.006), primarily in the anterior corpus callosum. Compared with HC, BD-I patients exhibited lower FA in widespread clusters (ptfce-FWE < 0.001), including almost all major projection, association, and commissural fiber tracts. BD-II patients also demonstrated lower FA compared with HC, although less pronounced (ptfce-FWE = 0.049). The results remained unchanged after controlling for clinical and genetic features, for which no independent associations with FA or GMV emerged. Our findings suggest that, at a neurobiological level, BD subtypes may reflect distinct degrees of disease expression, with increasing WM microstructure disruption from BD-II to BD-I. This differential magnitude of microstructural alterations was not clearly linked to clinical and genetic variables. These findings should be considered when discussing the classification of BD subtypes within the spectrum of affective disorders.

Temporal recalibration in response to delayed visual feedback of active versus passive actions: an fMRI study.

The brain can adapt its expectations about the relative timing of actions and their sensory outcomes in a process known as temporal recalibration. This might occur as the recalibration of timing between the sensory (e.g. visual) outcome and (1) the motor act (sensorimotor) or (2) tactile/proprioceptive information (inter-sensory). This fMRI recalibration study investigated sensorimotor contributions to temporal recalibration by comparing active and passive conditions. Subjects were repeatedly exposed to delayed (150 ms) or undelayed visual stimuli, triggered by active or passive button presses. Recalibration effects were tested in delay detection tasks, including visual and auditory outcomes. We showed that both modalities were affected by visual recalibration. However, an active advantage was observed only in visual conditions. Recalibration was generally associated with the left cerebellum (lobules IV, V and vermis) while action related activation (active > passive) occurred in the right middle/superior frontal gyri during adaptation and test phases. Recalibration transfer from vision to audition was related to action specific activations in the cingulate cortex, the angular gyrus and left inferior frontal gyrus. Our data provide new insights in sensorimotor contributions to temporal recalibration via the middle/superior frontal gyri and inter-sensory contributions mediated by the cerebellum.

Connectome architecture shapes large-scale cortical alterations in schizophrenia: a worldwide ENIGMA study.

Schizophrenia is a prototypical network disorder with widespread brain-morphological alterations, yet it remains unclear whether these distributed alterations robustly reflect the underlying network layout. We tested whether large-scale structural alterations in schizophrenia relate to normative structural and functional connectome architecture, and systematically evaluated robustness and generalizability of these network-level alterations. Leveraging anatomical MRI scans from 2439 adults with schizophrenia and 2867 healthy controls from 26 ENIGMA sites and normative data from the Human Connectome Project (n = 207), we evaluated structural alterations of schizophrenia against two network susceptibility models: (i) hub vulnerability, which examines associations between regional network centrality and magnitude of disease-related alterations; (ii) epicenter mapping, which identifies regions whose typical connectivity profile most closely resembles the disease-related morphological alterations. To assess generalizability and specificity, we contextualized the influence of site, disease stages, and individual clinical factors and compared network associations of schizophrenia with that found in affective disorders. Our findings show schizophrenia-related cortical thinning is spatially associated with functional and structural hubs, suggesting that highly interconnected regions are more vulnerable to morphological alterations. Predominantly temporo-paralimbic and frontal regions emerged as epicenters with connectivity profiles linked to schizophrenia's alteration patterns. Findings were robust across sites, disease stages, and related to individual symptoms. Moreover, transdiagnostic comparisons revealed overlapping epicenters in schizophrenia and bipolar, but not major depressive disorder, suggestive of a pathophysiological continuity within the schizophrenia-bipolar-spectrum. In sum, cortical alterations over the course of schizophrenia robustly follow brain network architecture, emphasizing marked hub susceptibility and temporo-frontal epicenters at both the level of the group and the individual. Subtle variations of epicenters across disease stages suggest interacting pathological processes, while associations with patient-specific symptoms support additional inter-individual variability of hub vulnerability and epicenters in schizophrenia. Our work outlines potential pathways to better understand macroscale structural alterations, and inter- individual variability in schizophrenia.

Structural brain abnormalities and aggressive behaviour in schizophrenia: Mega-analysis of data from 2095 patients and 2861 healthy controls via the ENIGMA consortium.

Background: Schizophrenia is associated with an increased risk of aggressive behaviour, which may partly be explained by illness-related changes in brain structure. However, previous studies have been limited by group-level analyses, small and selective samples of inpatients and long time lags between exposure and outcome. Methods: This cross-sectional study pooled data from 20 sites participating in the international ENIGMA-Schizophrenia Working Group. Sites acquired T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans in a total of 2095 patients with schizophrenia and 2861 healthy controls. Measures of grey matter volume and white matter microstructural integrity were extracted from the scans using harmonised protocols. For each measure, normative modelling was used to calculate how much patients deviated (in z-scores) from healthy controls at the individual level. Ordinal regression models were used to estimate the associations of these deviations with concurrent aggressive behaviour (as odds ratios [ORs] with 99% confidence intervals [CIs]). Mediation analyses were performed for positive symptoms (i.e., delusions, hallucinations and disorganised thinking), impulse control and illness insight. Aggression and potential mediators were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Results: Aggressive behaviour was significantly associated with reductions in total cortical volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.88 [0.78, 0.98], p = .003) and global white matter integrity (OR [99% CI] = 0.72 [0.59, 0.88], p = 3.50 × 10-5) and additional reductions in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.85 [0.74, 0.97], p =.002), inferior parietal lobule volume (OR [99% CI] = 0.76 [0.66, 0.87], p = 2.20 × 10-7) and internal capsule integrity (OR [99% CI] = 0.76 [0.63, 0.92], p = 2.90 × 10-4). Except for inferior parietal lobule volume, these associations were largely mediated by increased severity of positive symptoms and reduced impulse control. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that the co-occurrence of positive symptoms, poor impulse control and aggressive behaviour in schizophrenia has a neurobiological basis, which may inform the development of therapeutic interventions.

Polygenic risk for schizophrenia converges on alternative polyadenylation as molecular mechanism underlying synaptic impairment.

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a genetically heterogenous psychiatric disorder of highly polygenic nature. Correlative evidence from genetic studies indicate that the aggregated effects of distinct genetic risk factor combinations found in each patient converge onto common molecular mechanisms. To prove this on a functional level, we employed a reductionistic cellular model system for polygenic risk by differentiating induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from 104 individuals with high polygenic risk load and controls into cortical glutamatergic neurons (iNs). Multi-omics profiling identified widespread differences in alternative polyadenylation (APA) in the 3' untranslated region of many synaptic transcripts between iNs from SCZ patients and healthy donors. On the cellular level, 3'APA was associated with a reduction in synaptic density of iNs. Importantly, differential APA was largely conserved between postmortem human prefrontal cortex from SCZ patients and healthy donors, and strongly enriched for transcripts related to synapse biology. 3'APA was highly correlated with SCZ polygenic risk and affected genes were significantly enriched for SCZ associated common genetic variation. Integrative functional genomic analysis identified the RNA binding protein and SCZ GWAS risk gene PTBP2 as a critical trans-acting factor mediating 3'APA of synaptic genes in SCZ subjects. Functional characterization of PTBP2 in iNs confirmed its key role in 3'APA of synaptic transcripts and regulation of synapse density. Jointly, our findings show that the aggregated effects of polygenic risk converge on 3'APA as one common molecular mechanism that underlies synaptic impairments in SCZ.

A Systematic Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Biomarkers for Major Depressive Disorder.

Importance: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, major depressive disorder (MDD), no informative biomarkers have been identified. Objective: To evaluate whether machine learning (ML) can identify a multivariate biomarker for MDD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used data from the Marburg-Münster Affective Disorders Cohort Study, a case-control clinical neuroimaging study. Patients with acute or lifetime MDD and healthy controls aged 18 to 65 years were recruited from primary care and the general population in Münster and Marburg, Germany, from September 11, 2014, to September 26, 2018. The Münster Neuroimaging Cohort (MNC) was used as an independent partial replication sample. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Patients with MDD and healthy controls. Main Outcome and Measure: Diagnostic classification accuracy was quantified on an individual level using an extensive ML-based multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities, including structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression. Results: Of 1801 included participants, 1162 (64.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 36.1 (13.1) years. There were a total of 856 patients with MDD (47.5%) and 945 healthy controls (52.5%). The MNC replication sample included 1198 individuals (362 with MDD [30.1%] and 836 healthy controls [69.9%]). Training and testing a total of 4 million ML models, mean (SD) accuracies for diagnostic classification ranged between 48.1% (3.6%) and 62.0% (4.8%). Integrating neuroimaging modalities and stratifying individuals based on age, sex, treatment, or remission status does not enhance model performance. Findings were replicated within study sites and also observed in structural magnetic resonance imaging within MNC. Under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance did not significantly improve. Analyzing model errors suggests that symptom severity could be a potential focus for identifying MDD subgroups. Conclusion and Relevance: Despite the improved predictive capability of multivariate compared with univariate neuroimaging markers, no informative individual-level MDD biomarker-even under extensive ML optimization in a large sample of diagnosed patients-could be identified.

Brain Structural Network Connectivity of Formal Thought Disorder Dimensions in Affective and Psychotic Disorders.

BACKGROUND: The psychopathological syndrome of formal thought disorder (FTD) is not only present in schizophrenia (SZ), but also highly prevalent in major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder. It remains unknown how alterations in the structural white matter connectome of the brain correlate with psychopathological FTD dimensions across affective and psychotic disorders. METHODS: Using FTD items of the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms and Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms, we performed exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses in 864 patients with major depressive disorder (n= 689), bipolar disorder (n = 108), or SZ (n = 67) to identify psychopathological FTD dimensions. We used T1- and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging to reconstruct the structural connectome of the brain. To investigate the association of FTD subdimensions and global structural connectome measures, we employed linear regression models. We used network-based statistic to identify subnetworks of white matter fiber tracts associated with FTD symptomatology. RESULTS: Three psychopathological FTD dimensions were delineated, i.e., disorganization, emptiness, and incoherence. Disorganization and incoherence were associated with global dysconnectivity. Network-based statistics identified subnetworks associated with the FTD dimensions disorganization and emptiness but not with the FTD dimension incoherence. Post hoc analyses on subnetworks did not reveal diagnosis × FTD dimension interaction effects. Results remained stable after correcting for medication and disease severity. Confirmatory analyses showed a substantial overlap of nodes from both subnetworks with cortical brain regions previously associated with FTD in SZ. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated white matter subnetwork dysconnectivity in major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, and SZ associated with FTD dimensions that predominantly comprise brain regions implicated in speech. Results open an avenue for transdiagnostic, psychopathology-informed, dimensional studies in pathogenetic research.

Prediction of estimated risk for bipolar disorder using machine learning and structural MRI features.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with bipolar disorder are commonly correctly diagnosed a decade after symptom onset. Machine learning techniques may aid in early recognition and reduce the disease burden. As both individuals at risk and those with a manifest disease display structural brain markers, structural magnetic resonance imaging may provide relevant classification features. METHODS: Following a pre-registered protocol, we trained linear support vector machine (SVM) to classify individuals according to their estimated risk for bipolar disorder using regional cortical thickness of help-seeking individuals from seven study sites (N = 276). We estimated the risk using three state-of-the-art assessment instruments (BPSS-P, BARS, EPIbipolar). RESULTS: For BPSS-P, SVM achieved a fair performance of Cohen's κ of 0.235 (95% CI 0.11-0.361) and a balanced accuracy of 63.1% (95% CI 55.9-70.3) in the 10-fold cross-validation. In the leave-one-site-out cross-validation, the model performed with a Cohen's κ of 0.128 (95% CI -0.069 to 0.325) and a balanced accuracy of 56.2% (95% CI 44.6-67.8). BARS and EPIbipolar could not be predicted. In post hoc analyses, regional surface area, subcortical volumes as well as hyperparameter optimization did not improve the performance. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals at risk for bipolar disorder, as assessed by BPSS-P, display brain structural alterations that can be detected using machine learning. The achieved performance is comparable to previous studies which attempted to classify patients with manifest disease and healthy controls. Unlike previous studies of bipolar risk, our multicenter design permitted a leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Whole-brain cortical thickness seems to be superior to other structural brain features.

Young people at risk for developing bipolar disorder: Two-year findings from the multicenter prospective, naturalistic Early-BipoLife study.

Early identification and intervention of individuals with an increased risk for bipolar disorder (BD) may improve the course of illness and prevent long­term consequences. Early-BipoLife, a multicenter, prospective, naturalistic study, examined risk factors of BD beyond family history in participants aged 15-35 years. At baseline, positively screened help-seeking participants (screenBD at-risk) were recruited at Early Detection Centers and in- and outpatient depression and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) settings, references (Ref) drawn from a representative cohort. Participants reported sociodemographics and medical history and were repeatedly examined regarding psychopathology and the course of risk factors. N = 1,083 screenBD at-risk and n = 172 Ref were eligible for baseline assessment. Within the first two years, n = 31 screenBD at-risk (2.9 %) and none of Ref developed a manifest BD. The cumulative transition risk was 0.0028 at the end of multistep assessment, 0.0169 at 12 and 0.0317 at 24 months (p = 0.021). The transition rate with a BD family history was 6.0 %, 4.7 % in the Early Phase Inventory for bipolar disorders (EPIbipolar), 6.6 % in the Bipolar Prodrome Interview and Symptom Scale-Prospective (BPSS-FP) and 3.2 % with extended Bipolar At-Risk - BARS criteria). In comparison to help-seeking young patients from psychosis detection services, transition rates in screenBD at-risk participants were lower. The findings of Early-BipoLife underscore the importance of considering risk factors beyond family history in order to improved early detection and interventions to prevent/ameliorate related impairment in the course of BD. Large long-term cohort studies are crucial to understand the developmental pathways and long-term course of BD, especially in people at- risk.