Loan forbearance takeup in the Covid-era - The role of time preferences and locus of control.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries eased the burden on borrowers through loan forbearance. Using a representative sample of the Hungarian adult population, we investigate whether time preferences and locus of control are associated with loan forbearance takeup. We find evidence that time discounting correlates with the resort to forbearance: ceteris paribus, more patient individuals are less likely to take up forbearance, even after controlling for their present/future bias, risk aversion, locus of control, demographic characteristics, educational level, financial status, and the effects of the pandemic. However, present bias and locus of control are not significantly associated with loan forbearance.

Preferences of adolescents - A dataset containing linked experimental task measures and register data.

Between March 2019 and March 2020, we visited 53 school groups (classes) in 9 Hungarian schools to measure time, risk, social and competitive preferences of 1108 secondary school students using incentivized laboratory experimental tasks. We applied the unfolding brackets method to measure time preferences [1], and the bomb-risk elicitation task [2] to test risk preferences. For assessing competitive preferences, we utilized a real effort task (counting zeros) and used the three-round measure of competition [3]. We applied three different games to test social preferences: the dictator game, the trust game, and a simple public good game. We gave out vouchers for the school buffet to incentivize the experiments. We then took these anonymously measured preferences and connected them to the administrative panel of the National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC) using the hash codes provided by the Education Authority. We gain all additional information on gender, parental background, standardized test scores and school performance (grades) from the NABC data. The dataset provides detailed insights into how preferences of upper secondary school students associate with educational outcomes, social background and gender. The database contains rich background data on the individual level. We observe students nested in classes (groups of students having most of their courses together) nested in schools which allows the analyst to see how the background variables relate to preferences not only on the individual level, but also within schools and within classes. Moreover, as we measure nine aspects of the four most widely used preferences at once, we can assess these relationships more precisely, conditional on correlated preferences. In an accompanying paper we study gender differences in preferences of adolescents using this dataset [4].

Do exhausted primary school students cheat more? A randomized field experiment.

Motivated by the two-decade-long scientific debate over the existence of the ego-depletion effect, our paper contributes to exploring the scope conditions of ego-depletion theory. Specifically, in a randomized experiment, we depleted students' self-control with a cognitively demanding task that required students' effort. We measured the effect of depleted self-control on a subsequent task that required self-control to not engage in fraudulent cheating behavior-measured with an incentivized dice-roll task-and tested ego-depletion in a large-scale preregistered field experiment that was similar to real-life situations. We hypothesized that treated students would cheat more. The data confirms the hypothesis and provides causal evidence of the ego-depletion effect. Our results provide new insights into the scope conditions of ego-depletion theory, contribute methodological information for future research, and offer practical guidance for educational policy.

Conditional cooperation in group contests.

In this paper we show experimentally that conditional cooperation, a phenomenon described in the private provision of public goods, is also present in group contests, where participants' contributions to their group performance partially determines if they overcome a rival group. This environment allows us to identify new determinants of conditional cooperation. We observe conditional cooperation in successful groups and in groups where members contribute more than rivals (even if they lose), but it vanishes in those groups that lose the contest due to low group performance. A random-effect linear panel regression analysis with an extensive set of controls confirms the findings.

Time preferences and their life outcome correlates: Evidence from a representative survey.

We collect data on time preferences of a representative sample of the Hungarian adult population in a non-incentivized way and investigate how patience and present bias associate with important life outcomes in five domains: i) educational attainment, ii) unemployment, iii) income and wealth, iv) financial decisions and difficulties, and v) health. Based on the literature, we formulate the broad hypotheses that patience relates positively, while present bias associates negatively with positive outcomes in the domains under study. With the exception of unemployment, we document a consistent and often significant positive relationship between patience and the corresponding domain, with the strongest associations in educational attainment, wealth and financial decisions. We find that present bias associates significantly with saving decisions and financial difficulties.

Which preferences associate with school performance?-Lessons from an exploratory study with university students.

Success in life is determined to a large extent by school performance so it is important to understand the effect of the factors that influence it. In this exploratory study, in addition to cognitive abilities, we attempt to link measures of preferences with outcomes of school performance. We measured in an incentivized way risk, time, social and competitive preferences and cognitive abilities of university students to look for associations between these measures and two important academic outcome measures: exam results and GPA. We find consistently that cognitive abilities (proxied by the Cognitive Reflection Test) are very well correlated with school performance. Regarding non-cognitive skills, we report suggestive evidence for many of our measured preferences. We used two alternative measures of time preference: patience and present bias. Present bias explains exam grades better, while patience explains GPA relatively better. Both measures of time preferences have a non-linear relation to school performance. Competitiveness matters, as students, who opt for a more competitive payment scheme in our experimental task have a higher average GPA. We observe also that risk-averse students perform a little better than more risk-tolerant students. That makes sense in case of multiple choice exams, because more risk-tolerant students may want to try to pass the exam less prepared, as the possibility of passing an exam just by chance is not zero. Finally, we have also detected that cooperative preferences-the amount of money offered in a public good game-associates strongly with GPA in a non-linear way. Students who offered around half of their possible amounts had significantly higher GPAs than those, who offered none or all their money.

Correlated Observations, the Law of Small Numbers and Bank Runs.

Empirical descriptions and studies suggest that generally depositors observe a sample of previous decisions before deciding if to keep their funds deposited or to withdraw them. These observed decisions may exhibit different degrees of correlation across depositors. In our model depositors decide sequentially and are assumed to follow the law of small numbers in the sense that they believe that a bank run is underway if the number of observed withdrawals in their sample is large. Theoretically, with highly correlated samples and infinite depositors runs occur with certainty, while with random samples it needs not be the case, as for many parameter settings the likelihood of bank runs is zero. We investigate the intermediate cases and find that i) decreasing the correlation and ii) increasing the sample size reduces the likelihood of bank runs, ceteris paribus. Interestingly, the multiplicity of equilibria, a feature of the canonical Diamond-Dybvig model that we use also, disappears almost completely in our setup. Our results have relevant policy implications.