The contribution of community-based conservation models to conserving large herbivore populations.

In East Africa, community-based conservation models (CBCMs) have been established to support the conservation of wildlife in fragmented landscapes like the Tarangire Ecosystem, Tanzania. To assess how different management approaches maintained large herbivore populations, we conducted line distance surveys and estimated seasonal densities of elephant, giraffe, zebra, and wildebeest in six management units, including three CBCMs, two national parks (positive controls), and one area with little conservation interventions (negative control). Using a Monte-Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties from the density estimates and trend analysis, we analyzed the resulting time series (2011-2019). Densities of the target species were consistently low in the site with little conservation interventions. In contrast, densities of zebra and wildebeest in CBCMs were similar to national parks, providing evidence that CBCMs contributed to the stabilization of these migratory populations in the central part of the ecosystem. CBCMs also supported giraffe and elephant densities similar to those found in national parks. In contrast, the functional connectivity of Lake Manyara National Park has not been augmented by CBCMs. Our analysis suggests that CBCMs can effectively conserve large herbivores, and that maintaining connectivity through CBCMs should be prioritized.

Refining the stress gradient hypothesis for mixed species groups of African mammals.

Species interactions such as facilitation and predation influence food webs, yet it is unclear how they are mediated by environmental gradients. Here we test the stress gradient hypothesis which predicts that positive species interactions increase with stress. Drawing upon spatially-explicit data of large mammals in an African savanna, we tested how predation risk and primary productivity mediate the occurrence of mixed species groups. Controlling for habitat structure, predation risk by lions and primary productivity affected the frequency of mixed species groups in species-specific ways, likely reflecting distinct stress perceptions. To test whether mixed species groups indicate positive interactions, we conducted network analyses for specific scenarios. Under predation risk, dyadic associations with giraffes were more pronounced and metrics of animal networks changed markedly. However, dyadic association and network metrics were weakly mediated by primary productivity. The composition of mixed species groups was associated with similarities in prey susceptibility but not with similarities in feeding habits of herbivores. Especially predation risk favoured the frequency of mixed species groups and pronounced dyadic associations which dilute predation risk and increase predator detection. While our results provide support for the stress gradient hypothesis, they also highlight that the relative importance of stressors is context-dependent.

Retaliatory killing negatively affects African lion (Panthera leo) male coalitions in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem, Tanzania.

In landscapes where people and lions coexist, conflicts are common due to livestock predation and threats to human safety. Retaliatory lion killing by humans is often a consequence and is one of the leading causes of lion population declines across Africa. We assessed the effects of retaliatory lion killing on male lion coalitions in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem (TME) using a long-term dataset of lion monitoring for ten lion prides, spanning over a fourteen year-period from 2004-2018. We also interviewed 214 respondents about their attitudes and awareness of the effects of retaliatory killing on lions. We found that male lion coalitions were larger and lasted for a longer tenure period in locations with low risk of retaliatory killing, as well as far away from active hunting blocks. Further, young people (18-35 years old) had a more positive attitude towards lion existence and conservation compared to older age classes. Surprisingly, people with primary or secondary level of education were more likely to having lions killed if they attack livestock compared to people with no formal education, although the former supported lion presence for tourism in protected areas. We conclude that retaliatory killing has a large effect on long-term lion coalition dynamics and, thus, survival. Community awareness on retaliation effect varies widely, and we recommend implementing better education and policy strategies at TME to protect the declining carnivore populations.

Patterns of livestock depredation and cost-effectiveness of fortified livestock enclosures in northern Tanzania.

Human-carnivore conflicts and retaliatory killings contribute to carnivore populations' declines around the world. Strategies to mitigate conflicts have been developed, but their efficacy is rarely assessed in a randomized case-control design. Further, the economic costs prevent the adoption and wide use of conflict mitigation strategies by pastoralists in rural Africa. We examined carnivore (African lion [Panthera leo], leopard [Panthera pardus], spotted hyena [Crocuta crocuta], jackal [Canis mesomelas], and cheetah [Acinonyx jubatus]) raids on fortified (n = 45, total 631 monthly visits) and unfortified (traditional, n = 45, total 521 monthly visits) livestock enclosures ("bomas") in northern Tanzania. The study aimed to (a) assess the extent of retaliatory killings of major carnivore species due to livestock depredation, (b) describe the spatiotemporal characteristics of carnivore raids on livestock enclosures, (c) analyze whether spatial covariates influenced livestock depredation risk in livestock enclosures, and (d) examine the cost-effectiveness of livestock enclosure fortification. Results suggest that (a) majority of boma raids by carnivores were caused by spotted hyenas (nearly 90% of all raids), but retaliatory killings mainly targeted lions, (b) carnivore raid attempts were rare at individual households (0.081 raid attempts/month in fortified enclosures and 0.102 raid attempts/month in unfortified enclosures), and (c) spotted hyena raid attempts increased in the wet season compared with the dry season, and owners of fortified bomas reported less hyena raid attempts than owners of unfortified bomas. Landscape and habitat variables tested, did not strongly drive the spatial patterns of spotted hyena raids in livestock bomas. Carnivore raids varied randomly both spatially (village to village) and temporally (year to year). The cost-benefit analysis suggest that investing in boma fortification yielded positive net present values after two to three years. Thus, enclosure fortification is a cost-effective strategy to promote coexistence of carnivores and humans.

Migratory herds of wildebeests and zebras indirectly affect calf survival of giraffes.

In long-distance migratory systems, local fluctuations in the predator-prey ratio can exhibit extreme variability within a single year depending upon the seasonal location of migratory species. Such systems offer an opportunity to empirically investigate cyclic population density effects on short-term food web interactions by taking advantage of the large seasonal shifts in migratory prey biomass.We utilized a large-mammal predator-prey savanna food web to evaluate support for hypotheses relating to the indirect effects of "apparent competition" and "apparent mutualism" from migratory ungulate herds on survival of resident megaherbivore calves, mediated by their shared predator. African lions (Panthera leo) are generalist predators whose primary, preferred prey are wildebeests (Connochaetes taurinus) and zebras (Equus quagga), while lion predation on secondary prey such as giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) may change according to the relative abundance of the primary prey species.We used demographic data from five subpopulations of giraffes in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania, East Africa, to test hypotheses relating to direct predation and indirect effects of large migratory herds on calf survival of a resident megaherbivore. We examined neonatal survival via apparent reproduction of 860 adult females, and calf survival of 449 giraffe calves, during three precipitation seasons over 3 years, seeking evidence of some effect on neonate and calf survival as a consequence of the movements of large herds of migratory ungulates.We found that local lion predation pressure (lion density divided by primary prey density) was significantly negatively correlated with giraffe neonatal and calf survival probabilities. This supports the apparent mutualism hypothesis that the presence of migratory ungulates reduces lion predation on giraffe calves.Natural predation had a significant effect on giraffe calf and neonate survival, and could significantly affect giraffe population dynamics. If wildebeest and zebra populations in this ecosystem continue to decline as a result of increasingly disrupted migrations and poaching, then giraffe calves will face increased predation pressure as the predator-prey ratio increases. Our results suggest that the widespread population declines observed in many migratory systems are likely to trigger demographic impacts in other species due to indirect effects like those shown here.

Top-down population regulation of a top predator: lions in the Ngorongoro Crater.

Efforts to determine whether bottom-up or top-down processes regulate populations have been hampered by difficulties in accurately estimating the population's carrying capacity and in directly measuring food intake rate, the impacts of interspecific competition and exposure to natural enemies. We report on 40 years of data on the lion population in Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, which showed strong evidence of density-dependent regulation at 100-120 individuals but has remained below 60 individuals for the past decade despite consistently high prey abundance. The lions enjoy a higher per capita food-intake rate and higher cub recruitment at low population density, and interspecific competition has not increased in recent years. These animals have suffered from a number of severe disease outbreaks over the past 40 years, but, whereas the population recovered exponentially from a severe epizootic in 1963, three outbreaks between 1994 and 2001 have occurred in such rapid succession that the population has been unable to return to the carrying capacity. The Crater population may have become unusually vulnerable to infectious disease in recent years owing to its close proximity to a growing human population and a history of close inbreeding. The Crater lions may therefore provide important insights into the future of many endangered populations.